College Football Playoff Rankings: Predicting the Top 12 after Conference title games
How the College Football Playoff rankings shake out will be one of the more fascinating stories to watch in college football today.
The top two teams are clear after Georgia and Michigan won convincingly in their respective conference championship games. After that, several teams could make a case for the No. 3 and 4 seeds in the playoff.
TCU’s loss to Kansas State may not knock them out of the playoff, but it could move them from three to four and into a matchup with defending national champion Georgia.
Ohio State looks to be the biggest beneficiary of the results on championship weekend. The losses from the Horned Frogs and USC Trojans opened the door for the Buckeyes to redeem their blowout loss to Michigan from a week ago. There’s a possibility the playoff committee pits the two together one more time to see how things shake out.
Then there’s Clemson, Alabama, and Tennessee. Three teams with two losses each, but just one of those teams with a conference championship to their name. We’ll see how much they value a conference title, but this weekend’s results are a big reason why playoff expansion was necessary.
We’ll see how the College Football Playoff committee ranks the top four. There will be a lot of complaints this season with no clear top four. Here’s our prediction for what the top 12 could look like.
Georgia Bulldogs (13-0): SEC Champion
Dec 3, 2022; Atlanta, GA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs celebrate after their 50-30 victory over the LSU Tigers in the SEC Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Why: Ric Flair once said, “To be the man, you have to beat the man.” The Georgia Bulldogs have proven in 2022 that they are the best team in college football. They’ll be the favorite in whatever matchup the committee sticks them with. Kirby Smart has this team rolling right now.
Week 14 result: Beat No. 14 LSU, 50-30
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Michigan Wolverines (13-0): Big Ten Champion
Dec 3, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Big Ten Championship MVP Michigan Wolverines running back Donovan Edwards (7) hoists his trophy following their 43-22 victory against Purdue in the Big Ten Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium. Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
Why: Michigan trounced Ohio State and then picked up another convincing win over Purdue. All Michigan had to do was win to be the two seed, but the way their playing may give them the confidence to make a run at the Georgia Bulldogs.
Week 14 result: Beat Purdue, 43-22
TCU Horned Frogs (12-1)
Dec 3, 2022; Arlington, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) lays on the field after being stopped short of the goal line by the Kansas State Wildcats defense during overtime at AT&T Stadium. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Why: TCU was 5-1 in games against ranked teams, while Ohio State was 2-1. The Horned Frogs’ one-score loss to Kansas State allows them to stay in the three-seed with a date against Michigan.
Week 14 result: Lost to No. 10 Kansas State, 31-28 (OT)
Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)
Nov 5, 2022; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) runs with the ball during the first half of the NCAA football game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch. Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Why: No, Ohio State, you don’t get to jump TCU and get a rematch with Michigan. You got trounced at home by the Wolverines. The committee may make “The Game” a semifinal and give Ohio State a chance to redeem themselves, but Michigan earned the right to not have to play their rival for a second time. Sorry, Ohio State, you get Georgia.
Week 14 result: Did not play
Clemson Tigers (11-2): ACC Champion
Dec 3, 2022; Charlotte, NC, USA; Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney raises the ACC trophy with defensive end K.J. Henry (5) after defeating the North Carolina Tar Heels in the ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Clemson won 39-10. Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY NETWORK
Why: Clemson may have a better case for inclusion than Ohio State despite their two losses because of their ACC Championship. If a conference title means something, the Tigers have to get some consideration. However, late-season losses to Notre Dame and South Carolina may come back to bite them. Conference championships should mean something, and Clemson won the ACC in a rout.
Week 14 result: Beat North Carolina, 39-10
Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)
Nov 26, 2022; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores head coach Clark Lea and Tennessee Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel meet at mid field after a shutout win by the Volunteers at FirstBank Stadium. Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Why: Tennessee losing to Georgia, and then South Carolina dashed their playoff hopes in what turned out to be a magical season for Josh Heupel, Hendon Hooker, and the Volunteers. Tennessee gets the nod over Alabama due to the head-to-head win in conference play.
Week 14 result: Did not play
Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2)
Sep 18, 2021; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban talks with quarterback Bryce Young (9) against the Florida Gators during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Why: The Crimson Tide have been done for a while. Of course, there’s a chance they could back door into this thing, but it doesn’t seem likely. However, Nick Saban and the Bulldogs with a chance to upset the Georgia Bulldogs in what could be Bryce Young’s last game for the Tide would be something.
Week 14 result: Did not play
Kansas State Wildcats (10-3): Big 12 Champion
Dec 3, 2022; Arlington, TX, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Will Howard (18) holds up the championship trophy as the Wildcats celebrate winning the Big 12 championship after defeating the TCU Horned Frogs overtime at AT&T Stadium. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Why: Kansas State and Utah are the case studies for expanding to 12 teams in the College Football Playoff. Their wins are nice and it earned them conference championships, but in a four-team playoff, those titles mean nothing.
Week 14 result: Beat TCU, 31-28
Utah Utes (10-3)
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 02: Head coach Kyle Whittingham of the Utah Utes gets a Gatorade bath by Paul Maile #54 during the fourth quarter in the Pac-12 Championship against the USC Trojans at Allegiant Stadium on December 02, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)
Why: Utah’s two wins over USC provide them the opportunity to go to the Rose Bowl. Take away one of Utah’s Pac-12 losses or the loss to Florida to open the season and the Utes could have made a case for the College Football Playoff. Starting in 2024, the Utes would have been a playoff participant.
Week 14 result: Beat USC, 47-24
USC Trojans (11-2)
Dec 2, 2022; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Utah Utes during the second half in the PAC-12 Football Championship at Allegiant Stadium. Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Why: After losing by one point to Utah in the regular season, the Trojans got boat raced by the Utes in the Pac-12 championship. You’re done.
Week 14 result: Lost to Utah, 47-24
Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2)
Nov 26, 2022; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; A detailed view of the Land Grant Trophy as the Penn State Nittany Lion players sing their alma mater following the game against the Michigan State Spartans at Beaver Stadium. Penn State defeated Michigan State 35-16. Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
Why: Penn State’s only losses are to Michigan and Ohio State. Two top-five teams, and possible playoff participants. If the Nittany Lions were in the Big Ten west, there’s a good chance they’re in the mix for the final playoff spot.
Week 14 result: Did not play
Washington Huskies (10-2)
Nov 26, 2022; Pullman, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies running back Wayne Taulapapa (21) carries the ball against the Washington State Cougars in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Washington won 51-33. James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Why: That loss to Arizona State looms large over what was otherwise a strong season for the Huskies. They may not have had the defense to beat USC like Utah did, but had the Huskies made the Pac-12 title game, it would have made for a fun, offensive showdown.
Week 14 result: Did not play
