College Football Week 4 Bets: Notre Dame, Ohio State and a full slate of Big 12 games

Well, folks, when you’re right 52% of the time you’re wrong 48% of the time.

That is how Smooth Jimmy Apollo explained bad gambling advice on “The Simpsons” and I can’t think of a better way to start out this week’s college football betting column than by stealing that quote.

After two sensational weeks of picks, I slumped to a 1-6 record last Saturday with Northern Illinois and Nebraska giving me one of the worst beats I’ve ever experienced. I bet the final score to finish under 45.5 points, and it seemed like a mortal lock when Nebraska led 21-3 with less than 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.

As long as two terrible offenses didn’t magically combine to score 22 points in garbage time I was going to win. Much to my dismay, they scored exactly 22 when Northern Illinois tacked on a meaningless touchdown with four seconds left ... and elected to go for two ... and converted. Final score: 35-11. The over hit by half a point.

Ouch. I’m still in pain.

But, hey, at least Florida International (+260) came through as my upset pick. I’ve nailed that two weeks in a row.

Now, let’s look ahead and hopefully find some more winners.

Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.

Here are his thoughts on various betting lines and games for Week 4:

UCF (+4) at Kansas State

This is a difficult game to handicap, because both teams are dealing with significant injuries. UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee won’t play for the Knights. Timmy McClain, a dual-threat passer, will take his place. The Golden Knights lead the nation in total offense, averaging 617.7 yards per game. But most of that production came against Kent State and Villanova. They may not move the ball so easily against stronger competition. K-State is also dealing with setbacks. Will Howard is questionable for the game, which means Avery Johnson could get his first start. Running back Treshaun Ward is doubtful. Star linebacker Daniel Green is out for the season. K-State was briefly favored by a touchdown, but the betting line has come down closer to a field goal.

BYU (+10) at Kansas

This figures to be an entertaining game between undefeated teams. Kansas more or less sleepwalked its way through a win at Nevada last week. BYU is coming off an impressive road victory over Arkansas. Both teams will be fired up to start Big 12 play. A sellout crowd is expected in Lawrence. This seems like a good opportunity to back the underdog, given how large this spread is. But the Jayhawks have won both of their home games by double digits this season. This betting line has been all over the place. You could find Kansas favored by as many as 10 and as low as 8.5 on Thursday morning. Shop around and find the best number based on the side you prefer.

Memphis (+7) vs. Missouri

Even though Missouri quarterback Brady Cook is questionable for this game, my main question revolves around how Missouri will respond to its emotional victory over Kansas State last week. Eli Drinkwitz’s team seemed to put everything it had into that matchup. Can it play with maximum intensity in back-to-back weeks? Memphis will definitely be looking forward to this game after starting the season 3-0 against overmatched opponents. This line has also bounced around, but it has never strayed too far away from a touchdown.

Best Bets

Last Week: 1-6

Season Record: 11-10

Nevada (+16.5) at Texas State: Give Nevada credit for hanging around against Kansas, but I don’t see the Wolf Pack putting up much of a fight this week. Not only are they traveling two time zones away for a road game against Texas State, but the Bobcats are really good. They are 3-0 against the spread this season and lead the country in cover margin (+23.3 per game). This team loves to put up points under new coach G.J. Kinne, and they will continue to do so with ease against the Wolf Pack. Pick: Texas State.

BYU (+10) at Kansas: ESPN college football statistician Bill Connelly projects this game to go to overtime. I project KU to win by a field goal. I’m not sure why a team that just beat Arkansas is catching double digits here, but I will gladly take the points. Pick: BYU.

Colorado (+20.5) at Oregon: The Buffaloes have been on center stage for three straight weeks, and I think that will catch up to them against Oregon. Colorado needed overtime to beat Colorado State and now it has to play without Travis Hunter on the road. The Ducks would love nothing more than to let quarterback Bo Nix put up Heisman numbers in this game. This feels like a recipe for a blowout. Pick: Colorado.

Oklahoma (-13.5) at Cincinnati: We already mentioned that Texas State has been the best team in all of college football against the spread this season. Want to guess which team is No. 2? That’s right, it’s the Sooners. They have a cover margin of +19.5 after three games. Things might not be quite so easy in their Big 12 road opener, but Cincinnati just lost at home to Miami (Ohio). I like Oklahoma to win by three scores. Pick: Oklahoma.

Memphis (+7) vs. Missouri: This spread could move in either direction as we wait to hear the status of Missouri quarterback Brady Cook. But I like Memphis catching anything close to a touchdown. Missouri put everything it had into beating K-State last week and is primed for a let down. Memphis hasn’t played since last Thursday and will treat this like its Super Bowl. Pick: Memphis.

Ohio State (-3.5) at Notre Dame: Neither of these teams has really been tested this season, but Notre Dame has looked like the better team thus far with dominant wins over Navy and North Carolina State. Sam Hartman could become a legit Heisman candidate with a big game this week. Give me the home team and the points. Pick: Notre Dame.

Rice (-2.5) at South Florida: Always beware of the team that points to a loss as the most impressive result on its resume. That is South Florida after it only lost to Alabama 17-3 last week. The Owls are undefeated against the spread with JT Daniels at quarterback, and he is capable of carving up this defense in ways that the Crimson Tide could not. Lean: Rice.

Upset Pick of the Week

Mississippi (+230) at Alabama: Is Alabama mortal this season? Maybe. The Crimson Tide couldn’t keep up with Texas and then looked downright average last week against South Florida. Believe it or not, Alabama’s over/under win total has dropped all the way to 8.5. If you think Nick Saban’s team is cooked, why not go with the Ole Miss money line? The Rebels are off to a 3-0 start with double-digit wins over Mercer, Tulane and Georgia Tech.

Other lines worth considering

USC (-34.5) at Arizona State: This is a lot of points to lay on the road, but the Trojans are one of the best teams in the country and the Sun Devils are a dumpster fire. Lean: USC.

Arizona (-11.5) at Stanford: The Cardinal just lost at home to Sacramento State. Things will get much harder this weekend against the Wildcats. Lean: Arizona.

Oklahoma State (+3.5) at Iowa State: This has the potential to be the grossest game in Big 12 history. The Cowboys are coming off a 33-7 loss to South Alabama. The Cyclones just lost 10-7 to Ohio. The over/under points total is only 36.5. That still seems too high for these offenses. Lean: Under.

Duke (-21.5) at Connecticut: The Blue Devils have looked great this season. But they haven’t played a road game yet and Notre Dame is up next. How interested are they in covering the spread here? Lean: UConn.

Texas Tech (-6) at West Virginia: Want to hear a fun fact about West Virginia? Both of its wins came against teams located in Pittsburgh. This could be a get-right spot for the Red Raiders, who are most definitely not from the Iron City. Lean: Texas Tech.