Colombia elections will test Petro government on achieving peace with armed groups | Opinion

On Oct. 29, Colombia’s first elected left-wing president, Gustavo Petro, is facing local elections that will bluntly reveal the public mood. The vote for offices like mayors and governors will take the pulse on the country’s armed conflicts — and the government’s promise to end them, seeking “total peace” through negotiations.

Bogotá has made real progress sitting down with armed groups. But the election might show that those achievements have yet to be felt on the ground. As one Atlantic coast neighborhood leader told me, “Peace is more of a dream for now — especially during election season.”

It’s not only the voting results but also the level of armed group interference in the campaign that we should watch for. Voting day is usually calm, because influencing or threatening candidates and voters happens beforehand. Electoral violence risk maps show that roughly 10% of all municipalities are at extreme risk — the highest since 2010. Six candidates have been assassinated, with another 22 attempted attacks.

This was not the future Colombians imagined when the state signed a peace accord in 2016 with leftist insurgency Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). That agreement envisaged state institutions sweeping into the 22% of Colombian territory rebels had previously controlled. But bureaucracy moved slowly, and armed and criminal groups got there first. “The reality is that we really only had one year of peace,” a female activist in the Amazon explained.

Today’s conflict is different from the half-century struggle with Marxist insurgents. Armed and criminal groups are driven less by ideology than the imperative to control territory — and hence, acquire profits from smuggling drugs, guns, people and minerals. None of these groups wants to confront the state. Instead, they have learned to cement their control by directing their violence against the civilian population to coerce and co-opt.

The Petro government did not create this quagmire, but it is now responsible for trying to fix it. The administration wisely added negotiations to their repertoire. Some initial missteps complicated these efforts — specifically, ceasefires that the government offered in early 2023 without getting concessions. Armed groups took advantage of that to expand. The government has learned that lesson, but what it is up against is daunting.

Along the Caribbean coast, where the largest armed group calls itself the Gaitanista Self Defense Forces, mayoral hopefuls told me that campaigning without the group’s approval would be a death wish. Although the group has said it will not interfere, everyone in these small towns knows whom they should (and should not) vote for.

They know this because the Gaitanistas control every aspect of daily life. They levy taxes, fine residents for fighting or gossiping, and set rules. The population depends on them for jobs as recruits or because of the cash from their illicit businesses.

The stakes for illegal groups at local elections are high. Controlling a mayor’s office allows a group to disguise its illegal control with legal authority, including with state contracts to launder funds. It also makes them into powerbrokers.

The Gaitanistas are not the only ones vying for power. A dissident faction of the former FARC that is in talks with the government initially warned it would not allow unfriendly candidates in its areas. While the so-called FARC-EMC has since agreed not to interfere, the reality is that whoever wins has to co-exist with “those who are really in charge,” as one resident put it.

The day after the polls, armed and criminal groups look poised to control dozens of town halls. This makes the government’s work toward peace even more urgent and challenging. Rolling back armed influence starts at the negotiating table, using military pressure if necessary, to ensure illegal groups show up in good faith. Talks must bring relief to beleaguered residents, with clear commitments to stop violence against civilians. Unless Colombians start to feel it in their daily lives, peace will be far from total.

Elizabeth Dickinson is senior analyst for Colombia at International Crisis Group, where she researches armed conflict dynamics and the implementation of the 2016 peace accord. She was previously a journalist.