Colorado court’s Trump decision risks blunting Haley momentum

The Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to remove former President Trump from the state’s primary ballot is posing a political conundrum for primary rival Nikki Haley, who has seen a burst of momentum in recent weeks.

The court ruled that Trump is disqualified from competing in the race under the 14th Amendment’s “insurrection clause,” finding that he violated his oath in engaging in insurrection. Trump’s campaign has vowed to appeal the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court, which could reverse his removal from the ballot.

But the state court’s decision nonetheless puts Haley and other GOP rivals in a bind, forcing them to defend the candidate they’re trying to defeat for the nomination.

“If you’re DeSantis and Haley, what can you say other than, ‘This is malarkey’? Because if you say, ‘Well, this is what we warned you about,’ everyone’s gonna turn away from them,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell.

Haley quickly weighed in on the matter, telling reporters after the news broke that “we’re going to win this the right way,” while also arguing that “the last thing we want is judges telling us who can and can’t be on the ballot,” according to footage shared by MSNBC.

The former United Nations ambassador has been surging in multiple polls recently, reaching nearly 30 percent in a New Hampshire released Sunday and moving into second place in an Iowa poll released Wednesday.

Other Republican candidates have also issued statements, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who called on the Supreme Court to reverse the decision, which he argued was “based on spurious legal grounds.”

But his remarks also alluded to the case over electability that he has been trying to make against the former president.

“Here’s the larger thing of what the left and the media and the Democrats are doing: They are doing all this stuff to basically solidify support in the primary for him, get him into the general, and the whole general election is going to be all this legal stuff,” DeSantis said in Iowa on Wednesday.

Even vocal Trump critic Chris Christie expressed skepticism over the decision, saying he doesn’t think “any court” should prevent Trump from the presidency.

“I think he should be prevented from being president of the United States by the voters of this country,” Christie said.

Meanwhile, Vivek Ramaswamy, who has embraced the former president even as he campaigns against him, pledged to withdraw his own name from the Colorado GOP primary ballot “until Trump is also allowed” to be on it, calling on Haley and the others to do the same.

The responses underscore the sensitive political nature of the issue for Trump’s rivals, who are loathe to anger a base loyal to the former president. The Colorado ruling also comes just before the start of voting next month, as Haley and others battle to secure at least second place behind Trump in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

“The timing of the decision isn’t ideal for them — no candidate wants to be in the position of defending their opponent only weeks before an election,” Iowa-based Republican strategist Michael Zona told The Hill via email. “The decision also hijacks the news cycle, distracting from candidates’ ability to deliver their closing campaign message before the holidays.”

GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak said the Colorado ruling “dominates the coverage” and puts both Haley and DeSantis in an “awkward situation.”

“At a time when Haley’s rising, when she’s started putting negative ads up, when others are putting negative ads up about her, when she’s rising in New Hampshire and maybe a second place looks within reach in Iowa — it threatens to halt all that momentum,” he said.

And for DeSantis, the Colorado development “comes at a bad time” as the Florida governor appears to be upping his attacks against Trump and Haley.

“It’s an awkward situation, because to some extent, these issues go back to one of the reasons why they’re running,” Mackowiak said, noting Trump’s rivals may use this to make the point that his presidency was rife with chaos. “But this isn’t the way you want to win.”

Mackowiak argued Trump’s removal from the Centennial State’s ballot is particularly “unifying” as the former president continues to cast the legal cases against him as politically motivated, and that the removal may open the door for some in the party who support a non-Trump candidate to turn support back toward him.

“It’s only going to strengthen his us-against-them argument and [deprive] DeSantis and Haley of trying to change the focus of this race,” said Republican strategist Brian Seitchik, adding the Colorado ruling is “bad news” for non-Trump contenders.

Seitchik added that in the end it “doesn’t matter” whether Trump uses this moment to pull voters from his competitors, given his front-runner status.

“The fact is, this deprives DeSantis and Haley of an opportunity to pull voters away from Trump, which is what they have to do here,” Seitchik said. “Trump doesn’t need to move any voters to his camp. He simply needs to hold the voters that he currently has.”

The Colorado case is the latest in several legal battles the former president faces in courtrooms across the country, including multiple criminal indictments.

But Trump — branding the indictments, lawsuits and litigators as political attacks against him — has seen boosts following major developments in these cases.

“Legal setbacks have only helped the former president in the primary and there’s no reason to believe this won’t be the case again here,” Zona said.

Iowa-based GOP strategist Jimmy Centers said the decision will likely rally Trump’s base in the Hawkeye State and beyond, comparing it to the aftermath of the first charges filed against Trump in the hush money case in Manhattan. He said he has heard from Iowa caucusgoers who are “troubled” by the ruling, in that none of the charges Trump is currently facing are for insurrection.

Centers said that even if the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately overturns the ruling, its political effect of boosting Trump will remain.

“For those that believe that the courts, the Department of Justice, are out to get former President Trump, the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision reinforces that mindset,” he said. “Regardless of what the United States Supreme Court does … the damage, if you will, has been done.”

DeSantis appeared to recognize the possibility of support in the GOP race further consolidating behind Trump, arguing that his nomination would avoid the distraction of Trump’s legal cases.

“Do we want to have 2024 to be about ‘this trial, that case, this case,’ having to put hundreds of millions of dollars into legal stuff? Or do we want 2024 to be about your issues, about the country’s future with a nominee that’s going to be able to prosecute that case against the left?” he said.

Republican strategist David Capen said the ruling could swing voters who are on the fence between Trump and another candidate like DeSantis and continue the trend of DeSantis dropping in support in polling.

“Whatever they throw at [Trump], it seems like it’s just growing his base of support among Republican voters,” he said.

Capen said the non-Trump candidates need to focus on showing voters “their true selves, their true values” and demonstrating authenticity instead of saying what they believe voters want to hear from them.

He said they should not worry as much about coming “across as a polished politician seeking to say all the right things to appeal to this base or that base.”

Haley, DeSantis and the rest of the field are still gunning for wins in Iowa and New Hampshire next month, but they’re now “stuck between the proverbial rock and the hard place” with the Colorado ruling, Seitchik said.

“It’s a grim picture for Haley and DeSantis. That does not mean that we necessarily reached the last twist, but this is this is a pretty immovable object,” O’Connell said.

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