Will Colorado Springs see a white Christmas this year? Maybe, says forecaster

Brooke Nevins, The Gazette (Colorado Springs, Colo.)
Updated ·3 min read

Dec. 18—Could Colorado Springs see a white Christmas this year? Maybe, according to the National Weather Service in Pueblo.

Given Colorado Springs' poor historical odds of seeing snow on Christmas Day, any indication of flurries on Dec. 25 is noteworthy. According to the weather service, the last white Christmas — rigidly defined by the service as "over 0.5 inches of snow falling on Christmas Day with a least 1 inch (already) on the ground" — was in 1987. Before that, 1976.

According to records dating back to 1894, a record 2.3 inches fell on the holiday over a century ago in 1911. A trace of snow has fallen on Dec. 25 just 21 years in that time. The year 1982 holds a record for 7 inches already on the ground by 5 a.m. on Christmas morning.

But a surge of cold air originating in the arctic is expected to hit Colorado late Wednesday into Thursday, possibly plummeting temperature highs into the teens and lows below zero. While that cold shock — likely this month's coldest spell so far — comes days before Christmas, lingering cold temps with potential moisture could make for a few flakes over the holiday weekend.

"Usually the arctic air does not have a whole lot of moisture associated with it," said Mark Wankowski, a forecaster with the weather service. "So, if there's any precipitation associated with that cold air, it will be very light and very fluffy snow if we do see anything at all."

Cautious forecasters insist heavily on that "if," as weather conditions are difficult to predict over a week out. But some models show potentially promising hints at light snow on Dec. 24 into Dec. 25 across south-central and southeast Colorado.

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"That is a long way out and we can't guarantee anything like that," Wankowski said. "But there are long-range models that are showing the potential for some snowfall (on Christmas)."

Such flakes would likely be light and dry, as December is on average the driest month in Colorado Springs with an average 0.23 inches of precipitation. The Colorado Springs Airport, where official measurements are recorded for the city, received just .03 inches of moisture with Thursday night's snowfall, accounting for almost all of the total 0.04 inches of precipitation so far this month.

"Snowfall, at least this time of year, does not really bring any appreciable moisture and does not help much with alleviating drought," Wankowski said.

This year marks the third straight year for the La Niña weather pattern, when cooler Pacific waters typically cause below-average rainfall and higher temperatures in most of Colorado. Per the U.S. Drought Monitor, El Paso County, as well as most of the eastern plains, is under moderate to severe drought and has been for more than a year.

But the rare La Niña "triple dip" could "weaken" over the next few months and give way to El Niño — and wetter patterns through the spring, Wankowski said. "(El Niño) does seem to have an uptick in precipitation across southeast Colorado."