Colts mailbag: Could Sean Payton be the next head coach? What is going on with Jim Irsay?

The past week has been quite a year on the Colts beat.

On Monday morning, I woke up at 5:30 a.m. in a hotel in Boston and headed for the airport. I got back home in Indianapolis at 11:30 that morning, sat down to do a little work and got the news that Frank Reich had been fired. Then came the bombshell that Jeff Saturday would replace him.

Then came a wild press conference that night.

I finally got to bed at 3 a.m. I've had some crazy days in this field, from seeing the Big Ten Tournament canceled to a Lions practice in a blizzard to a Lions coach's press conference discussing an allegation for sexual assault, but Monday had to be the strangest from start to finish.

It's never a dull day covering these 2022 Colts. It also means you have questions, and I tried my best to deliver some answers.

(If you'd like to submit a mailbag question, email the link at the bottom or follow me on Twitter @NateAtkins_, where I put out the call.)

Question: "Jeff Saturday was a head-scratching decision, to say the least. How will that affect the Colts head coach search in the offseason? Would Sean Payton have any interest in coaching the Colts after this? He have said he doesn't want to go to a dysfunctional place and the Colts seems to be one." -- @_Not_DBCooper via Twitter

Answer: The Colts are making so many changes right now that it can be hard to keep track of. In less than three weeks, they have benched an MVP quarterback for a sixth-round pick, they've fired an offensive coordinator, they've fired a head coach and offensive play caller and they've hired an interim coach from an analyst job at ESPN.

They are doing it to best manage and react to a season that has fallen so far below anyone's expectations, but they have to be careful about the image this projects around the league. The nation tuned in for Monday's press conference with popcorn. My phone was blowing up with people asking what on earth had infected this franchise. It's undercutting all the stability and infrastructure that had made it a prized destination for a Hall-of-Fame-caliber quarterback like Matt Ryan just eight months ago. Jim Irsay now comes off as an owner calling the shots, particularly with his quarterbacks, to the point of hiring a former player he likes in order to smooth it over. Whether that's fair or not, it's the perception they have to fight. It's an image of meddling that has made franchises like the Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins and Washington what they have been over the past few decades.

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That doesn't bode well for negotiations with future head coaches or general managers who have other options. Sean Payton will certainly be one of those, and he comes from a place in New Orleans where he had total roster control, something that's not on the table with the Colts right now. Payton is a longshot for other reasons, too: He will prioritize having a quarterback in place, and he'll also cost significant draft compensation to the Saints. The Colts need their draft picks to find a quarterback and a left tackle to attract him in the first place.

Also, consider the words he told The Athletic recently:

"I think there are a lot of dysfunctional teams in our league. There are some places where talent can die," Payton said. "I just want to avoid those places."

Question: "Why is Jimmy from the Colts the way that he is? But seriously, what the hell was that press conference? Irsay was so smug and arrogant while Ballard looked like he’d rather be anywhere but there. Embarrassed as a fan/season ticket holder is an understatement." -- @MitchMullis via Twitter

Answer: That was a trip. So much surprised me about the Colts' approach that night -- the lack of an opening statement for Saturday or Chris Ballard, Irsay's opening defense of the coach he just fired, the deflection of criticism, the bathing in the success of the early 2000s and the refusal to acknowledge what's changed.

Perhaps the weirdest moment to me was one I haven't seen get a lot of play elsewhere: when Irsay made up a reference from a deceased Al Davis to promote his new coach.

"If Al was here and you’d say, ‘Hey Al, why do you think Jeff (Saturday) is going to be successful?’ He’d say three words: ‘He’s not scared,’” Irsay said.

The defensiveness of Irsay and Ballard caught me by surprise. Ballard thrives on confidence, but it doesn't usually rear its head after failure. Irsay has always been engaging and relatable to the fans' frustration, but the night became a victory lap for his tenure, when it was the mistakes that led to the press conference for a fired coach. It all took the focus off of Saturday, a franchise legend who showed a relatable and passionate personality but was overshadowed by the leaders above him. That's becoming a theme of the 2022 Colts.

This was Ballard and Irsay in a place we haven't seen them before. Both men have proven to me and others to be much better than they showed that night. You hope they can rebound to what they used to be instead of just talking about what they used to be.

Question: "What changes will be made to improve line play and the offense in general?" -- @chuckinfoosier via Twitter

Answer: Saturday is going to need some time to assess the situation before too many changes take place.

He gave some interesting insight in his first solo press conference Wednesday when he shared that Irsay called him in the middle of Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Patriots to ask what was so wrong with an offensive line that would go on to give up nine sacks, their most since 2017.

"I was not watching that game. I was preparing to go to work. So, I was watching all the other games. I actually watched the Colts at 7 – my schedule for working for ESPN," Saturday said. "... This was 100% about what happened to our o-line and that was the role that I had been doing with Strauss (Chris Strausser) and Frank (Reich)."

Everything has been a whirlwind for Saturday since that call. He discussed the opportunity with his wife, accepted the job, flew from Georgia to Indianapolis, met his coaching staff for the first time, interviewed offensive coaches to find a play-caller, met with the team, met with trainers to learn about the health situation of the 53 men on the roster and then started to formulate a practice plan.

"I’m drinking from a fire hydrant a little bit," Saturday said.

What we do know is that Sam Ehlinger will start at quarterback, Bernhard Raimann will start at left tackle and assistant quarterbacks coach Parks Frazier will call the plays. Ehlinger has started the past two games and Raimann started last week. Frazier has never called plays at any level before, but he's as on top of the details of Reich's playbook and philosophy as anyone and has worked with Ehlinger behind the scenes. His knowledge of what Ehlinger can and can't do should be a bonus, but he has catching up to do with the rest of the personnel.

Like any coaching staff, they'll adapt some as they gain practice time and see the picture evolve on the field. They'll also work with what they have. The real fixes the Colts need on offense aren't walking through that door right now. The players and coaches are all so young and inexperienced everywhere but the offensive line, and that's been the unit that has held everything back.

Question: "If they miss playoffs, you think Chris Ballard is done in offseason so new GM can pick his own coach?" -- @MIKE_R_MARSHALL via Twitter

Answer: It's going to be very unlikely that the Colts make the playoffs with the changes they've introduced to a 3-5-1 team. Projecting beyond that gets very difficult.

Irsay was asked on Monday whether Ballard will be back, an admittedly awkward but unavoidable moment with Ballard sitting directly to his left.

"There’s no question about that," Irsay said. "Honestly, it’s not really even in the consciousness of my mind about that sort of thing."

It's a vote of confidence, technically. But keep in mind Irsay's track record with these promises. He said last spring that Ryan would be the starting quarterback for at least two seasons and hopefully a third, and that lasted seven games. He recently told ESPN and NFL Network that Reich's job was safe, and that lasted eight days.

I brought those two moments to his attention Monday night and asked him why fans should believe the promises he's now making about his head coach and general manager.

“I’ve never hired a losing head coach," Irsay said. "We’re the fourth-winningest team in the league. It’s not about belief, it’s about fact. What we’ve done. We’re better than most all. It’s that simple. Our record proves it over a period of time. So, you don’t have to believe much when it’s there in black and white."

So, the track record suggests the words aren't what matters. Irsay says he makes these decisions based on intuition, so we'll see how he feels about the final eight games and what Saturday reports back to him about the state of his franchise.

Question: "Is this the year the Colts finally go and draft a QB in the first round regardless of whatever draft position they end up in?" -- @AarBagg via Twitter

Answer: It certainly should be, but you really can't assume anything with this franchise at the moment. If they have a plan in place, they're doing a great job of hiding it, and they also seem ripe to blow it up at any moment. Nobody knows who will be the general manager of this team come next spring, so projecting what will happen is impossible.

But we know Irsay wants to build around a young quarterback, something he pressed upon our columnist, Gregg Doyel, just a week ago.

They might not have much of a choice either.

The tenures with Matt Ryan and Nick Foles have gone so publicly bad that it's going to be a monstrous challenge to convince another veteran quarterback to want to make Indianapolis the destination if he has any options at all. Ryan and Foles both did. The Colts had to talk Ryan into requesting a trade from Atlanta to Indianapolis by selling him on their offensive line and running game and promising at least two years as the starter, claims that Irsay made public with his comments and by guaranteeing the second year of Ryan's deal, and they pulled the rug out after seven games. Foles was content with retiring after playing for five teams in 11 seasons. Both men didn't want to move young families across the country unless it was for more than a year, and the Colts promised them both that, and then neither had a chance at the roles they were given by midseason, and the coach who sold them on it was fired.

That's one of the issues the Colts are having with their chaotic management of this season. The franchise has gone from a golden destination for quarterbacks to a death trap in the eyes of the public. Add in the poor offensive line play and the lack of defined leadership at the general manager, head coach and offensive coordinator level, and it's not the stable place veteran quarterbacks seek out. It's also not a stable place for a rookie either, but draft picks don't get the same choice.

What the Colts do from now until next year's draft will determine plenty about whether the next quarterback can sink or swim.

Contact Colts insider Nate Atkins at natkins@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter @NateAtkins_.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts mailbag: What is going on with Jim Irsay?