Colts mailbag: Which of the draft's top QBs has Indianapolis done the most work on?

The NFL Draft is finally almost here. It'll start Thursday night, which is when we (should) get an answer to who will be the quarterback of the future for the Colts.

This could wind up being a monumental draft for the franchise, which means the people have questions. Let's get to them:

Question: "Do you have a sense of which of the 4 QBs the Colts have put the most work into? Not necessarily who they have graded the highest, but who’ve they spent the most time on?" – @DangerB12 via Twitter

Answer: The Colts have met with all four for private workouts in their home state and top-30 visits to the team facility. But they have put in more work on Florida's Anthony Richardson and Kentucky's Will Levis than they have Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud.

The reason is simple: Richardson and Levis require more work than Young and Stroud. The latter two have clean resumes as two-year starters for elite programs who won lots of games, produced at elite levels and have obvious playing styles. The conversation on them is less about who they are and more about how to value them.

Richardson and Levis have upside through exciting measurables and highlights but also some major holes in their games. The work on them is to understand why those holes exist and whether they're likely to fix them. Richardson completed less than 55% of his passes, so teams have to figure out whether the completion rate is more about decision making or accuracy, whether those issues lie more in the upper or lower halves of his body and how much is tied to his lack of experience. Levis took a significant step back last season from a big 2021, so teams have to figure out how much of that was a decline in coaching and surrounding talent and how much was defenses figuring him out.

Both have questions about why they didn't win quarterback battles earlier in their career, whereas Young sitting behind Mac Jones and Stroud waiting behind Justin Fields are self-explanatory.

Question: "Why is CJ Stroud's stock falling all of a sudden?" – @TDominoATL via Twitter

Answer: Every year, you see a quarterback slip a little as teams pick apart every aspect of their lives and also finalize draft boards and decide whether this is the year they need to take one. No draft has ever featured four quarterback picks in the first four selections.

Stroud could be the one slipping. This could be more about Bryce Young and the Texans than it is about him. Young's hype stalled with a quiet combine, but he was going to win some teams over with his interviews and whiteboard sessions, where he can put an elite level of pre- and post-snap processing on display.

It's not been a secret that the Texans are high on Young, and if he goes No. 1, there's a thought that they would not be a good fit for Stroud even if he is the No. 2 quarterback in the class. Stroud shares an agent with Deshaun Watson. He mentioned Watson at the combine as a player whose style he studies, though he specified to on the field. Given the extreme fall-out with Watson that began with him demanding a trade before any of the off-field allegations surfaced, there's reason to be skeptical about what the negotiations on a contract extension would look like. You draft a quarterback at No. 2 overall with the intent of keeping him for 15 years.

A concern with Stroud did arise when he reportedly scored in the 18th percentile on the S2 cognition test, a finding released anonymously to longtime reporter Bob McGinn. According to the company, S2 examines quarterback prospects on nine different cognitive skills: perception speed, search efficiency, tracking capacity, visual learning, instinctive learning, decision complexity, distraction control, impulse control and improvisation.

The test has replaced the Wonderlic and is growing in popularity with NFL teams trying to solve this great quarterback riddle, but it's incredibly new data, and teams are still determining which of the nine cognitive skills matter more to them than the others. It's one piece of data in a web of hundreds, and it's worth being suspicious of leaks this late in the process.

"There’s usually an agenda behind it, but I don’t know what people get out of leaking that kind of information," Colts general manager Chris Ballard said on the general topic of leaks. "I don’t agree with it. That’s just me, personally.”

Like anything else, an outlier result on a test just forces teams to take a closer look at the film, and I think most will see Stroud as a sharp decision-maker. He's arguably the best thrower in the class.

I think he potentially cost himself something by not running the 40-yard dash, where he could have placed a number behind his case that he's more athletic than what Ohio State's playbook asked him to show. It's a tiny edge that could matter if teams enamored by traits are more drawn to Richardson or Levis.

The odds are that one of these quarterbacks is going to fall out of the top nine picks, and it could be Stroud, Richardson or Levis. It's just the nature of the draft, especially with USC's Caleb Williams and North Carolina's Drake Maye waiting in next year's class.

Question: "Given the (Stephon) Gilmore trade and (DeForest) Buckner's comments, what do you think is the patience level for the vets on this team for a rookie QB? Especially if they don't play a lot this year, which is likely for Richardson or Levis?" – Kaarthik via Twitter

Answer: I think this is an underrated point when it comes to evaluating who fits Indianapolis best.

The Colts need a quarterback of the future. But they also need a quarterback of the now.

It's different than when the Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes when they had Alex Smith or when the Ravens took Lamar Jackson when they had Joe Flacco or when the 49ers selected Trey Lance when they had Jimmy Garoppolo. Those teams were able to bet more on traits and long-term development, knowing they had a trusted starter in place.

Winning cures all, ultimately, and the best way to keep a draft pick on the bench is if Gardner Minshew is playing well and the team is winning games. But the early season stretch has been hard on the Colts in recent years because of all that quarterback change. Minshew would represent the next one, and when the next one arrives after that becomes anyone's guess.

MORE: 4 lessons the Colts can learn from Jalen Hurts' rise with the Eagles

That kind of instability can take a toll on players, namely veterans who don't feel like they have time to waste. They know so many of their futures are tied to the quarterback's success.

Of course, who the quarterback becomes matters most, and Shane Steichen will have to make some tough decisions as a head coach. But finding a quarterback of the now and of the future could keep one fire from ever having to light.

Question: "If the Colts were to prioritize maximizing their rookie QBs success with their remaining draft picks, what player types/positions do you see them spending their high picks on?" – Nathan via Twitter

Answer: I see wide receiver in the second round becoming more likely because of this idea. Alec Pierce is the only one they have signed beyond next season, and they could use a starting slot receiver with more upside than Isaiah McKenzie.

The Colts have yet to add any offensive linemen this offseason despite the wreckage that group created a year ago. The one starter they definitely need is a right guard, and I'd bank on one coming on Day 2. They should emphasize pass protection here, given what's at stake with the first pick.

The Colts like the young tight ends they have in Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson and Drew Ogletree, but Chris Ballard did say that tight end is the strongest position in this draft. The right kind of blocking type could be tempting, such as Darnell Washington from Georgia on Day 2.

Question: "Do the coaches have any input for the draft, or is it all (Chris) Ballard?" – Colts Fan Steven via Twitter

Answer: Chris Ballard and his scouts have been working on this draft for more than a year now, and traditionally, coaches enter the conversation closer to the NFL combine. This year is a little different with not only a coaching change but also how late that process played out. For example, quarterbacks coach Cam Turner didn't arrive until the week of the combine. They've been playing catch-up as an offensive staff, which is why the Colts ultimately were not a real contender to trade up to the No. 1 pick based how soon the Bears wanted to make that deal.

Ballard said Friday that he hasn't changed his evaluation of this year's quarterbacks since Steichen came on board but has evolved in his ideas of how to use them. He mentioned Jim Bob Cooter as someone who has had bright ideas along the way.

I expect Ballard to take control of the quarterback selection, knowing he has a coach flexible in working with any of these types. Then I think he'll lean a little more on the coaches' input for ensuing picks because they have ideas for what that quarterback needs to play with. He'll lean a good deal on Gus Bradley for input on guys who fit his long-running defensive system, but it's also a system that Ballard feels naturally comfortable drafting.

Question: "More likely to go corner or wideout at 35?" – Benny Eastside via Twitter

Answer: Cornerback is the more pressing need but wide receiver is the more important position for aiding the quarterback selection, so this could go either way. I'll go with cornerback for now. The Colts not only need one to step in from Day 1 and start on the outside but to also become a potential No. 1, given that Kenny Moore II and Isaiah Rodgers Sr. are in contract years. Though you can make a strong needs argument for receiver as well, the difference is the Colts do have a potential starting option in McKenzie and also have tight ends to help play in the slot and add to the offensive weaponry.

Of course, this also depends on how the draft plays out. If one of the premier slot receivers falls to No. 35, say Boston College's Zay Flowers or USC's Jordan Addison, it'd be too tempting to pass given that this draft is primarily about the quarterback. Free agency also has more starting-caliber cornerbacks left than wide receivers, including a few who can fit this defense, such as Rock Ya-Sin, Marcus Peters and Shaquill Griffin.

Question: "What’s the point in carrying Nick Foles on the roster still?" – Gavin Martin via Twitter

Answer: When the Colts released Matt Ryan, it was everyone's assumption that Foles' exit wouldn't be long after, given that both veterans were added together for a two-year attempt at a contention window that no longer exists. Foles will be one of four quarterbacks on the roster if and when the Colts draft a rookie, along with Minshew and Sam Ehlinger, and they won't be carrying four this season.

My sense is they want to make sure they draft a quarterback first before cutting another one. Ballard has made it a point to not force decisions before a deadline arrives. If he's at all open to the possibility of drafting Will Anderson at No. 4 and risking a wait until next year at quarterback, perhaps he could keep a backup like Foles around a little longer. The more likely scenario is that this is just a formality.

Contact Colts insider Nate Atkins at natkins@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter @NateAtkins_.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: NFL Draft 2023: Why is C.J. Stroud falling in the draft?