Colts mailbag: Let's predict the target share at wide receiver
Finally, mercifully, the preseason is over. So, too, is training camp. That means we are past the daily overreactions to non-schemed football plays that are ultimately just practice.
It's time to try to make sense of it all.
So, the mailbag will be back on a regular basis for the season. To get a question in, either follow me on Twitter and watch for the calls or email me at natkins@indystar.com.
We're still guessing here, but at least it's informed guessing now, based on the whole of practice and not just the parts. We can take stock of where the Colts are entering Week 1 of the season, of their hopes and dreams and fears and pitfalls.
It's always fun to me to take a portrait of the precipice, and the Colts are at a fascinating one entering the 2022 season. Let's get to it.:
Q: "Can you predict a WR Depth Chart based on how many targets they get pls?" -- @finerty_jack on Twitter
A: Sure. Here's how I see the breakdown with the players they have now, assuming they are healthy for the same number of games:
Michael Pittman Jr.
Parris Campbell
Alec Pierce
Ashton Dulin
Michael Strachan
Dezmon Patmon
Pittman Jr. has gone from creating 1,000 yards with Carson Wentz to establishing an immediate and consistent connection with Ryan regardless of the matchup. He should see 8-10 targets a game, which would place him in the top 10 in the league. More on him in a bit.
The Colts have pulled back the reigns on Campbell in order to preserve him for the regular season, but I expect him to cook with Ryan on schemed-up routes and pre-snap adjustments from the slot. For as many games as he's healthy, averaging five targets a game isn't a stretch in what should be a higher-percentage opportunity role. He's the clear No. 2 among wide receivers, and he could ascend to the No. 2 option overall if he stays on the field.
Pierce and Dulin both appear like low-volume options designed to be the occasional shock play at the 'Z' position. Pierce is starting over Dulin, who is trying to maintain his second-team All-Pro status on special teams. But I think this is where the drop-off gets steep, as the third wide receiver should fall below Nyheim Hines, Mo Alie-Cox and Jonathan Taylor in targets in what is still a fairly run-heavy offense. Pierce and Dulin might combine for four targets a game.
Strachan and Patmon are likewise a coin flip and probably entrenched in depth roles in case of an injury. It's possible one breaks out and then nothing blocking him for the No. 3 role, but they have to prove it beyond preseason games to move ahead of names like Kylen Granson and Jelani Woods.
Q: "From your perspective coming out of camp, is the "vet WR" as much of a concern from going into camp?" -- @jgaubleedblue on Twitter
A: I like the use of the word "perspective," because that's what the answer to this question comes down to. General manager Chris Ballard clearly thinks more highly of his receiving corps than the public does, and while I understand the bets he's making, I share the cause for concern everyone has.
I think the calls for a go-to veteran receiver can officially die until Michael Pittman Jr. gets hurt. He's been the most consistent player in the Colts offense in training camp, the only one with a clear connection with Ryan and the ability to beat Stephon Gilmore in 11-on-11. He finished 16th in receptions as a second-year player last year, and he should be sitting on a huge season.
Mostly, the situation is the same: Parris Campbell looks like a consistent player when he's healthy and we don't know if he will be. Nyheim Hines should eclipse 60 receptions again, but he's not a full-time receiver and won't become one. Outside of Pittman Jr., the Colts don't have anyone who yet looks primed to beat No. 1 cornerbacks or make contested catches on the regular.
If that guy is out there at an affordable rate, the Colts have to look into making the move if a young player doesn't break out right away. T.Y. Hilton is an obvious name, and he brings the ability to beat zone coverage and create synergy with Ryan, though most of his explosiveness is gone. He'd need the right role and compensation, and finding the match for both sides has been a challenge. I still view him as the break-emergency-glass option if this really is just the Pittman Jr. show and not much else.
Q: "How many games will Bernhard Raimann start this year?" -- @The_Reid on Twitter
A: This is one of those fascinating questions that's really hard to tackle because the answer, ultimately, is not so much about Raimann as it is the guy in front of him.
Ever since the Colts decided to re-sign Matt Pryor to an incentive-laden, one-year deal worth a minimum of $5.45 million, the plan has been to give him the first crack at the left tackle job. He's a former utility man trying to carve out a future at left tackle as he enters his prime, and in exchange, the Colts received enough stability to not force a left tackle in the draft. That's how they wound up with a developmental player like Raimann with their third selection.
The hope is that everyone wins: Pryor holds down the left tackle job for a year and builds a free-agent market for himself; Raimann learns the details of a difficult position without the pressure of keeping Matt Ryan alive; the Colts create a left tackle plan that's affordable enough to spend on the players they have yet to re-sign, like Quenton Nelson, Jonathan Taylor and Yannick Ngakoue.
It all sounds nice, but if Pryor doesn't perform, if his 343-pound frame proves too lumbering to guard against the league's speed rushers, then the Colts cannot wait around and let a 37-year-old quarterback take a pounding. Injuries also happen in this sport, as last year's Colts line learned the hard way.
If we're setting odds, Pryor probably starts 14 or so games at left tackle. I think he'll be out there if he's healthy, as we know what he can provide to a run game that will remain a focal point and Ryan has proven he can adjust to some pressure off the edge. The Colts really want to take the long view with Raimann, who has made obvious progress with his leverage and get-off since camp began, so it'll be more about whether health allows the plan to last.
Q: "It sucks that (Drew) Ogletree got hurt, but who do you think benefits the most from his absence on the roster? Woods, Patmon, Strachan or someone else?" -- @ColtsFanTN on Twitter
A: Ogletree's breakout in camp was interesting because it wasn't necessarily the one the coaches had been counting on. Remember, they drafted Jelani Woods at the same position three rounds earlier. He was from a higher level of competition, attended the combine and posted one of the best athletic profiles ever for a tight end. But they played in opposite directions to start, showing the tricky nature of the tight end adjustment.
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Right before Ogletree got hurt, Woods had started to show clear signs of improvement by limiting drops and creating some explosive plays with his speed. That has continued since Ogletree left the picture. The two are roommates and consider each other best friends on the team, and it makes sense that Woods will take many of Ogletree's snaps, but the Colts coaches consider them different types of tight ends. Both are technically 'Y' types who can block well for rookies, but Ogletree proved to be better at contested catches, whereas Woods has the better explosive potential in the open field.
Ogletree wasn't likely to have huge production as a rookie, but his blocking snaps should go to Woods, and receptions could go up slightly for Woods, Granson and even Hines as the Colts look to cultivate more in the middle of the field, where Ryan loves to operate.
Contact Colts insider Nate Atkins at natkins@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter @NateAtkins_.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts mailbag: Let's predict the target share at wide receiver
