Colts ranked 17th in ‘Under-25’ talent

2019 ranking: 2
Blue-chip players: Quenton Nelson, LG
Notable graduated players: Darius Leonard, LB; Anthony Walker, LB; Kenny Moore, CB; Zach Pascal, WR

Last year’s No. 2 team in the under-25 rankings suffered a worse fall than even the Browns, landing in the middle of the pack at No. 17 and without even 30-year-old Andrew Luck’s retirement to blame. Well, that might not be completely true. Luck’s absence might well have stunted the development of their young skill talent including Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, and Parris Campbell, although hamstring and hand injuries would presumably have derailed Campbell’s rookie season in either case. It definitely affected the team’s linemen. After incredible rookie seasons with just five and 12 blown blocks, Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith saw their totals balloon to 15 and 44 in their sophomore seasons, that second number being tied for the league high of all linemen. Some of their decline was likely regression, but I suspect more came as a result of the quarterback switch. One of Football Outsiders’ core tenets is that quarterbacks have more control and linemen have less control over sacks than the conventional wisdom, and according to Next Gen Stats, Jacoby Brissett on average took 2.93 seconds to throw, second-highest in football and 0.30 seconds more than Luck took in 2018.

Nelson’s 1.5% blown block rate does not rob him of his blue-chip status. It was still good enough to earn him his second All-Pro distinction in as many seasons. But where the Colts had four clear blue-chip players under 25 years old a year ago, Nelson is the only obvious choice in 2020. Smith suffered his precipitous fall. Darius Leonard graduated. And while safety Malik Hooker continued to draw respect from opposing quarterbacks, seeing just 17 passes thrown his way over 13 starts, he does not seem to have that same respect from his own team. The Colts declined his fifth-year option for 2021 and drafted his potential replacement in Julian Blackmon in the third round, perhaps motivated by Hooker’s 29% coverage success rate on those limited targets.

That negativity explains the Colts’ fall from the top 10, but it might also overstate the declined circumstances of a franchise that continues to effectively straddle the line of likely current and future competitiveness. Even though their trio of effective running backs remains shy of 25 years old, the Colts drafted Wisconsin back Jonathan Taylor, who has the highest BackCAST forecast in the history of the projections. He has yet to show the same receiving ability that his closest rushing comps Saquon Barkley and LaDainian Tomlinson did, but Taylor can propel an already diverse backfield into one of the best in football. With his 6-foot-4 and 223-pound size, rookie receiver Michael Pittman should complement a receiver group with the faster veteran T.Y. Hilton and quicker sophomore Campbell playing out of the slot. And on defense, the Colts retain multiple under-25 starters even with as many graduates. Linebacker Bobby Okereke showed promise in coverage in his rookie season and has a ceiling as a three-down starter next to Leonard. Strong safety Khari Willis had a productive rookie season as well despite dealing with the off-field stress of the premature birth of his twin sons. And slot corner Rock Ya-Sin allowed a miniscule 7.5% broken tackle rate to prop up a run defense that tended to struggle with the 19th-ranked efficiency against the run.