Colts vs. Chargers betting odds, picks, predictions, NFL Draft position

The Indianapolis Colts have a new quarterback for their Week 16 "Monday Night Football" home game against the Los Angeles Chargers, and they're out of the AFC playoff picture.

That leaves 2023 NFL Draft position. The Colts (4-9-1) stand at No. 5 entering the weekend. Ahead of them: Texans (2-12-1), Bears (3-12), Broncos (pick traded to Seahawks, 4-11) and Cardinals (4-11).

The Chargers are 4.5-point favorites over the Colts, according to Draft Kings. The over/under is 46 overall points.

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The Colts are 6-8 against the spread. 5 Colts games have gone over, including their last 3, and 9 have gone under.

The Chargers are 8-5-1 ATS; they had a push last weekend against the Titans. 5 Chargers games have gone over, 8 under and 1 has been a push. Their last 3 games have gone under.

FiveThirtyEight gives the Colts a 56% chance of winning, while the ESPN matchup predictor gives the Chargers a 67.7% chance.

Here are the picks.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Chargers 30-20

The Colts are coming off a loss where they blew a 33-point lead, the type of loss that can send a team packing for the year. They also will be without running back Jonathan Taylor. The Chargers beat the Titans last week, but didn't play well in doing so. They will here. Justin Herbert plays big to keep the Chargers on the path to playoffs.

Maurice Moton, Bleacher Report: Chargers 28-20

At some point, quarterback Justin Herbert will pick apart a defense that allowed Kirk Cousins to throw four touchdowns in the second half of last week's historic game. Chargers cover against a hapless Colts squad.

Bill Bender, Sporting News: Chargers 28-23

The Colts blew a 33-point lead last week, and they are back in the prime-time spotlight with interim coach Jeff Saturday. Indianapolis is 3-2 ATS under Saturday, but the two losses were at home. The Chargers are heating up with healthy receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who have averaged 170.5 receiving yards the last two weeks.

Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Chargers 23-17

The Colts keep playing hard for Jeff Saturday, right up until they give up 32 straight points. That shouldn't happen on Monday night against a Chargers squad struggling to keep Justin Herbert upright, but L.A. won't need that many points. With Derwin James possibly re-joining an improving Bolts defense, it's hard to imagine the Colts scoring many touchdowns without Jonathan Taylor. (Even if Nick Foles proves to be an upgrade at quarterback.)

Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Chargers 28-21

Nick Foles gets his chance to help Jeff Saturday secure a job that he’s proving every week he’s not really ready to hold.

Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer: Colts cover the spread

The Chargers scored one touchdown in the first three quarters against Tennessee last week. The game was tied at 14 with under a minute left before Justin Herbert engineered a game-winning drive. I’m still all in on Herbert, and this team is well-positioned to get into the postseason. But there’s no way I’m trusting them to cover this number.

David Hill, The New York Times: Colts cover the spread

Yes, the Chargers have quarterback Justin Herbert, and he has kept them alive in countless games they otherwise should have been out of. Despite his generational talent, the Chargers still are only the 24th best offense according to D.V.O.A. Their offensive line has a hard time blocking, and their average rush picks up only 3.7 yards, worse than every team’s but Tampa Bay. Yes, the Colts have put their best player, running back Jonathan Taylor, on injured reserve. And yes, they are coming off the worst collapse of any team in N.F.L. history. But the Colts nearly have a top-10 defense, and they’re getting points at home. This is a tougher spot for the Chargers than it may appear.

Frank Schwab, Yahoo: Colts cover the spread

Can Nick Foles give the Colts a spark? The QB change can't hurt. And wouldn't it be just like the Chargers to blow this game? I'll take the points.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts vs. Chargers betting odds, picks, predictions, NFL Draft position