Colts vs. Texans betting odds, picks, predictions in NFL Week 18

The Indianapolis Colts close the season at home against the Houston Texans. Both teams are completing rough seasons.

What's at stake when the Colts play the Texans?

It's all jockeying for 2023 NFL Draft position. The Texans (2-13-1) are in the No. 1 position heading into the week, but could fall to No. 2 behind the Chicago Bears. The Colts (4-11-1) stand 5th, but they could end up anywhere between 3rd (not likely) and 6th (much more likely). Getting a read on this matchup is tough, considering they tied in Week 1.

Are the Colts favored vs. the Texans?

The Colts are 2.5-point favorites, according to Draft Kings. The over/under is 37.5 total points.

The Colts are 6-10 against the spread, failing to cover the past 2 games, and 4 of the past 5. Six Colts games have gone over, 10 under. Four of their past 5 have gone over.

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The Texans are 7-8-1 ATS, failing to cover last week after covering the 3 previous weeks. Six Houston games have gone over, 10 under. The past 2 have gone under.

ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Texans a 73% chance of winning. (Given the teams' history, it should be noted there's a 0.3% chance of a tie.) FiveThirtyEight gives the Colts a 59% chance to win.

Colts picks, predictions vs. Texans

Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Texans 21-20

The Colts went 21 straight drives without a touchdown before a garbage-time score by Sam Ehlinger last week. Frank Reich's absence is missed, with Indy getting outscored by 86 points under Jeff Saturday and now owning a worse overall point differential on the season than Houston. After three games of improved play, the Texans laid an egg last week. But they've shown enough over the last month to believe Lovie Smith could coach this team straight out of the No. 1 overall pick.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Colts 20-13

The Texans are playing for the first pick in the draft here, so they should be playing to lose. They won't be. That's not the nature of this league. The Colts will start Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, but does it matter? The offense is horrible. But I think they will play well enough to win Jeff Saturday's last game as interim coach.

Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer: Colts cover the spread

I don’t have the energy to give you actual analysis here. And I don’t think you really want actual analysis here.

With a win and a Bears loss, the Texans would give up the No. 1 pick. I don’t think that’s happening.

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Colts 20-17

The Texans need to be careful here about losing the No. 1 overall pick to the Bears, but in the end, they would still have their first choice at QB at No. 2 given Chicago has Justin Fields. The Colts will stick with a run-heavy game plan with their shaky QB situation and that should work well as their defense takes care of the rest to save some face.

Vic Tafur, The Athletic: Colts cover the spread

The Texans have not won a road game all season, and Sunday is no time to start. Let Sam Ehlinger make some plays, wink, and not only will you get the first pick, but you also may convince the Colts to bring back the overwhelmed Jeff Saturday for another season.

Cam Inman, San Jose Mercury-News: Colts 23-20

Houston locks up the No. 1 overall draft pick to — as the Colts annually attempt — bring in a new quarterback, likely Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud.

Gerry Dulac, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Texans 15-11

Jeff Saturday has lost on Sunday and Monday since winning his first game as the Colts’ interim coach. They have been outscored the past two games 58-13. The good news for the Texans is the game is not at home, where they are 0-7-1 this season.

Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times: Texans 20-17

Most weeks, the Texans play teams close. That isn’t an overly difficult task against Indianapolis because the Colts can’t score. Houston finishes this forgettable season with a flourish.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts vs. Texans betting odds, picks, predictions in NFL Week 18