Columbus Blue Jackets lose 10th road game in a row, keep eyes on No. 1 | Michael Arace
In the last two skates through this column space, we talked about the NHL draft lottery and twirled around the elephant in the room.
First, we looked at a parcel of teams – Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, Tampa Bay Lightning, Colorado Avalanche – that have combined to win nine Stanley Cups since 2009; we noted how their building projects had a lottery-built foundation. The lottery is not the only place to find a No. 1 center, but it is the best place.
Second, we looked at where the Blue Jackets are standing halfway through the 2022-23 season. Tuesday night in Tampa Bay, the Jackets (12-26-2) lost their 10th consecutive road game. They remain lodged in 31st place in the league, two points ahead of last-place Chicago. They have a litany of injuries as they face a brutal second-half schedule, which includes 10 road games in March. In sum, this is a team that is organically putrefying, like peat moss.
If you are a fan, you want your team to win. If you are a Jackets fan, you’ve experienced one playoff berth in 22 years, and for this you might have paid an aggregate of $3.4 million for beer at Nationwide Arena. As long as the Jackets’ young talent is progressing in its development, you can’t be all that bent about losing right now, not with another lottery in the offing.
If current form holds, Chicago will have a 25.5% chance of winning the lottery and a 55.5% chance of choosing among the top three. The Jackets will have a 13.5% chance of winning the lottery and a 32% chance of choosing in the top three. (Tankathon.com is the best for this stuff.)
This year is shaping up to be a great year to be picking in the top three (or four or five). It’s not like 2012, when the Jackets had the worst record in the league and lost the lottery to Edmonton. The Jackets were happy to lose that lottery. They wound up with Ryan Murray at No. 2, and they didn’t have to think about taking Nail Yakupov at No. 1, because the Oilers made that mistake.
There were years when the Jackets won too many meaningless games and played themselves out their best chance to get Nathan McKinnon, Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews. You want a No. 1 center who grows into a superstar, or maybe even a generational talent? Winning the lottery the right year is the best place to find one.
Columbus has never found one.
Elite talent is critical and, to that end the Jackets have been stockpiling some promising players with lottery picks over the previous two draft cycles. They also have some big pieces in place – Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine and Zach Werenski, et al. We’ve talked about this previously during this three-part lottery discussion.
What is missing is the elephant in room.
Connor Bedard is coming off a World Junior tournament in which he had nine goals and 23 points in seven games and led Canada to the gold medal. It was the biggest gush of scoring from a player at the World Juniors in 30 years, or since Peter Forsberg posted 31 points for Sweden in 1993. The difference: Forsberg was 19 then – and Bedard is 17.
Bedard was the youngest player in the tournament, and he dominated. He has long been touted as the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, and he is rising into a new realm. He is something like Matthews, encased in the smaller body of Mitch Marner, and he is drawing draft comparisons to McDavid and Sidney Crosby. You want a No. 1 center who grows into a superstar, or maybe even a generational talent? Winning the lottery might be the best way to find one. This year.
The trade deadline is March 5. Blue Jackets veteran defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov may or may not be able to negotiate a contract extension. He has been a fine Jacket. Veteran forward Gus Nyquist is also on an expiring contract. He has been a fine Jacket, and will probably be back in the free-agent market this summer. The smart play, in the scheme of the current rebuild, is to trade them both to stockpile more assets. (And maybe circle back to Nyquist in July.)
This season is no time for a meaningless stretch run, where the Jackets move up from 31st to 25th place. No, it’s a year to hope for Bedard, or, at least, to maintain the best chance of staying in the top three. The draft class includes at least two more potential No. 1 centers (namely, Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson and, possibly, Will Smith and Zach Benson.) Scouts have been drooling for years over this group.
Stay the course. Maintain stability in the hockey operations department, which obviously has a plan. Worry about the coaching staff later.
It’s all about the lottery.
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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: The Columbus Blue Jackets and the elephant in the room: Connor Bedard
