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Column: Instead of dreaming of adding on for a long playoff run, the Chicago Cubs need to seriously consider dealing 1 or more of the Big 3

paul sullivan, chicago tribune
·6 min read

The ebbs and flows of the long baseball season are what make the journey so fascinating, and few teams have been as up and down in 2021 as the Chicago Cubs.

After hitting .216 in April and looking like a team on its way to a midsummer sell-off, the Cubs took off in May with a .263 average, suddenly becoming the team to beat in the National League Central.

But just when you thought it was time to add instead of subtract, the Cubs are hitting an abysmal .182 in June after garnering only three hits Saturday in an 11-1 loss to the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field, reverting to the all-or-nothing form we’ve watched in recent years.

Sellers to buyers to sellers?

With six weeks left until the trade deadline, it likely is to go back and forth a couple of more times.

In losing five of their last six games, the Cubs have scored 12 runs, all on home runs. It’s a recipe that can’t be replicated if they intend to make some noise in October, which seemed possible only last week.

“I don’t really care how we score runs,” manager David Ross said after Friday’s 10-2 loss. “It’s that we win games, and that we do score. At times you’re going to go through moments when you hit home runs. … Just got to move the baseball around, make a little more contact.”

The Cubs have been saying that since Chili Davis was hitting coach in 2018, but somehow the issue keeps coming back. This is where you would insert the “hmm” emoji and ask if any of the same hitters from that ’18 team are still on the roster.

The Cubs hit .220 last year in the 60-game season and ranked 27th in hitting on Saturday with a .228 average. But they play in a division with four of the bottom-six teams in hitting, including the Milwaukee Brewers, who were dead last at .209 and a half-game back of the Cubs entering their road game late Saturday against the Colorado Rockies.

Javier Báez, who has been particularly streaky, is hitting .122 in June, with three home runs, three singles and 24 strikeouts in 49 at-bats.

“Sometimes when you hit the ball up into the (center-field) camera well, it’s fun, right?” President Jed Hoyer said of Báez last week. “Sometimes you have to remind yourself that’s not always the goal, right?”

Báez is still one of the league’s top run producers but also led the majors in strikeouts Saturday. He also has company. Bryant is hitting .137 in June with one homer and 3 RBIs, and Willson Contreras was at .188 during the month with three homers and 4 RBIs.

Hoyer, of “one eye on the present and one on the future” fame, might need a third eye to look toward the Cubs’ past. It’s there that Hoyer might find the answer to the eternal question of whether to sell or buy at the trade deadline.

The Big 3 — Anthony Rizzo, Bryant and Báez — are soon to be free agents, and Contreras will be one after next season. With the exception of Rizzo, all have added to their trade value this season, and all four would be sought after if the Cubs decide it makes more sense to subtract than add.

So now we’re basically back to square one, with a Cubs team that’s too good not to contend in a watered-down National League Central but maybe not good enough to go far in the postseason.

In other words, a repeat of 2017, ’18 and ’20.

Naturally, Cubs fans and some of the media have been imploring Hoyer to be a buyer, as if there’s a ton of prospects the Cubs could give up in return for a top starter. Their reasons for adding on are the same: every season is sacred; anything can happen in October; the Cubs have handled the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, etc., etc.

All true but all irrelevant in the Summer of Spin.

It’s just as easy to predict the Cubs offense going into a prolonged slump as it is to expect them to hit like they did in May. And unless you have enough starting pitching to overcome the inevitable down periods — spoiler: they don’t — you need a consistent offense, not one that once again depends on home runs to generate runs.

It’s a vicious cycle.

Hoyer needs to put his headphones on, tune out the rest of the world and do what needs to be done, even if trading one or more of the Big 3 and/or Contreras makes him the most unpopular man in town. Figure out which ones have the best chance of re-signing and trade the others for young talent and prospects.

Whichever way Hoyer goes, he probably will get some heat, but he knew this time was coming.

Is it too soon to give up on the season?

Of course. They were in first-place Saturday. But depending on what they might get in return, the Cubs might not be waving the white flag. They could still win the division after dealing one of two of their stars and still reload for the future. Outside of Kyle Hendricks and Adbert Alzolay, they’ll have three rotation vacancies in 2022.

Shouldn’t the Cubs get a couple of those potential pieces now?

During last week’s game on Fox Sports, reporter Ken Rosenthal speculated Hoyer likely would re-sign Báez and Rizzo and let Bryant and closer Craig Kimbrel — who has a team option for 2022 — leave as free agents. Analyst A.J. Pierzynski promptly asked why they wouldn’t re-sign Bryant and Kimbrel and let Báez and Rizzo leave.

Good question. But why not trade Bryant or Báez, take the inevitable hit from angry Cubs fans and then see what the rest can command at the deadline? Kimbrel’s dominant season makes him their most valuable trade chip, and his former team, the Atlanta Braves, could use a closer.

And according to the Miami Herald, the Marlins were trying to acquire Contreras last winter and were likely to include catcher Jorge Alfaro and two top prospects — Double-A outfielder Peyton Burdick and Class-A left-hander Zach McCambley — in a deal. The Cubs hung onto Contreras, but if the team goes into sell mode, he once again will be one of their most valuable assets because he won’t be a free agent until after 2023. Unless the Cubs believe Contreras will re-sign, it makes no sense not to at least shop him again.

It’s nice to believe the Cubs will ride this “last hurrah” into the World Series with everyone still on board.

But is it plausible?

The ebbs and flows of the season have made Hoyer’s decisions more difficult, but this is the job he wanted, and that’s where we’re at.