Column: Theo Epstein says the Cubs still can reach another gear. The final homestand would be a good time to find it.
It’s pretty well-established by now that the Chicago Cubs’ chances of going anywhere this postseason rest on the performance of their rotation.
That probably can be said of most teams heading into any postseason, but it’s particularly important for this Cubs team, which has has yet to establish itself offensively with only 11 games remaining after Tuesday.
Jason Heyward and Ian Happ have been the only consistent contributors, and though the Cubs have proven hitters up and down the lineup, it’s too late to depend on everyone else suddenly turning on the switch come playoff time.
Dropping Javier Baez to the No. 6 spot Tuesday in the opener of a two-game series against the Cleveland Indians was better late than never — and Baez answered with a mammoth home run to center field in his first at-bat — but will it make a lasting difference?
Manager David Ross said Tuesday he “may start moving things around” these last two weeks after saying in August he doesn’t like changing lineup spots because he didn’t like it as a player. So Baez may be back in the middle before long, at least if he stops striking out at his current 33% rate.
“It’s a really deep lineup with Javy batting sixth,” Ross said. “But he could very easily be back at the 3 (or) 4 hole at some point too.”
Fortunately for Ross, whether Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and the rest of the crew perform up to their standards, a rotation that looked iffy just a couple of weeks ago is starting to jell at the right time.
Yu Darvish, who started Tuesday, and Kyle Hendricks have carried the load all season. But Jon Lester may have saved his season with a stellar outing Friday in Milwaukee, and Alec Mills is coming off two strong starts, including his no-hitter Sunday against the Brewers.
Cubs starters entered Tuesday’s game with a 1.75 ERA over their last seven games, following a 19-game stretch in which they posted a collective 5.71 ERA, even with Darvish on track for a possible Cy Young Award.
Is this the best Ross has felt about his starters?
“I felt better when they were all healthy, and (Tyler Chatwood) was throwing really good early on,” Ross said. “But, yeah, it’s nice to get these guys back on track. Jonny, a good outing, Millsy, an amazing outing. Yu is throwing well and Kyle obviously has pitched well.
“We’ve got some really good opponents coming up that we’ve still got a lot of work to do and still some tests moving forward. But, yeah, the rotation looks good.”
Ross didn’t care to discuss his postseason thoughts, which makes sense considering the Cubs still are trying to win the division and get a higher seed for the wild-card round. If they capture the National League Central, they’re assured of being at home for the best-of-three series before heading to one of the two NL bubbles in Texas if they advance.
If they’re able to maintain this comfy lead and can clinch early enough to set up the rotation, Darvish and Hendricks would be penciled in as the Games 1 and 2 starters, leaving a decision on whether to go with Lester or Mills for a possible do-or-die Game 3.
Lester is a proven playoff performer, while Mills has stepped up when needed. It would be a tough decision, but it might be moot if the Cubs win or lose the series in two games.
Meanwhile, the Cubs bullpen also has picked up the slack with a 2.05 ERA over its last 18 games before Tuesday. Ross said Jose Quintana will come out of the bullpen when he returns from the injured list soon, giving them another lefty, though he conceded Chatwood is likely out.
“I don’t want to make a statement that his season is over, but I would say there’s definitely a lot of caution,” Ross said.
More importantly, much-maligned closer Craig Kimbrel finally seems to have recaptured his form, giving Ross the confidence to insert him in a save situation Saturday. Kimbrel closed out the ninth-inning comeback win against Josh Hader and the Brewers, the most important day of the Cubs’ season.
If Kimbrel can be Kimbrel in October, all would be forgiven by Cubs fans, at least for a while.
Cubs President Theo Epstein conceded last week they are “fortunate to be in the spot we’re in,” while maintaining they still have another gear to reach.
Now would be a good time to find it.
“We haven’t really had sustained offense here,” Epstein said. “We need our best hitters to produce in order to accomplish that. … There is certainly still time to define ourselves this season.”
That sounded a lot like the narrative at the end of 2018, when the Cubs hit .235 in the final month to let the Brewers force a Game 163, then lost that one and the wild-card game to the Colorado Rockies. That epic crash led to Epstein’s threat of a roster “reckoning” that still hasn’t happened.
Either way, it’s the final homestand of the 60-game regular season, and it has gone by much faster than anticipated. Co-owners Tom and Laura Ricketts kicked off the week with a Black Lives Matter event in Gallagher Way in which Cubs employees, including Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, listened to a speaker discuss systemic racism. A Martin Luther King Jr. quote was displayed on the video board: “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice.”
Wrigley Field has seen a lot over the years, but with the COVID-19 protocols, empty stands and players showing support for BLM, this year has been remarkable to watch. And no matter the outcome, going to work in an iconic ballpark is always a welcome respite for players and staff.
“We’ve got our own nice little niche here,” Ross said. “This is a great place to have called home for multiple months and basically gone through something nobody has ever done, basically being the pioneers in sports in some of this outside-the-bubble type of atmosphere.
"And we got to do it inside Wrigley Field. Nice place Tom has here.”
There’s no place like home.
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