Colwell: A Biden-Trump rematch in 2024? Say it isn't so

“Say it isn’t so.”

That’s the sentiment I hear after writing columns about the seeming inevitability of a Biden vs. Trump race again in 2024.

That’s not just sentiment around here. An NBC poll finds that among voters nationally, 70 percent say President Biden shouldn’t run for reelection and 60 percent say former President Trump shouldn’t run again.

OK, who else with a chance of winning could Democrats choose?

“How about Pete?” I hear that around here. In fact, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, the former South Bend mayor, is ranked high nationally as a possible future Democratic nominee. That’s why Republicans seek to blame him for every problem in the air, on the sea or on rails and roads on land.

This time for Pete? He certainly isn’t going to challenge the Democratic president. And even if Biden left the race, would Buttigieg win the nomination? Get elected?

Turning to Vice President Kamila Harris for top of the ticket doesn’t seem overly popular.

Turning to Sen. Bernie Sanders, second-place finisher for the 2020 nomination, makes no sense if age is a factor and in view of the way Sanders crashed in the primaries last time.

Turning to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also makes no sense. The weird spreader of misinformation about vaccines isn’t even endorsed by Kennedy family members. He was promoted by Tucker Carlson just before Carlson vanished from Fox News. Some Republican strategists think the guy with a famous name could at least muddy Biden in the Democratic primaries.

Biden likely was the only Democrat who could have defeated Trump in 2020. He might be the only Democrat who can do it in 2024. He is again criticized as dull, but that helped him before in coming across as stable in comparison with antics of Trump.

Although many Democrats find Biden not very inspiring, 88 percent of Democratic voters said in the poll that they definitely or probably would vote for Biden if he’s the nominee.

He will be the nominee — unless there’s some serious health problem or other event to take him out of the race. Occasional misstatements won’t eliminate Biden, just as rambling statements won’t eliminate Trump.

OK, now to Trump. Who else with a chance of winning could Republicans choose?

“How about DeSantis?” You hear that. But not as much. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis plummets in polls as voters now see him on the national stage and he’s clobbered by Trump and Mickey Mouse.

Trump delights in ridiculing DeSantis for his attacks on Disney World as the evil kingdom. Trump posted that DeSantis backers now contemplate hospitalizing him for “an emergency personality transplant.”

In the poll, Trump was the first choice of 46 percent of Republican voters for the party’s 2024 nomination. DeSantis, who once was ahead in some polls, was down to 31 percent.

If Trump slips amid more legal problems and DeSantis can’t reverse his downward spiral, to whom would Republicans turn?

Mike Pence was in third place with only 6 percent. Not much after that.

Tucker Carlson? He wouldn’t make sense if primary voters want a nominee without a bunch of legal problems.

Trump has a solid Republican base. Even many Republican voters not picking Trump as their first choice indicated in the poll that they don’t reject him. Nearly 70 percent said they stand behind Trump despite all the investigations and trials he faces.

So, Trump will be the nominee — unless there’s some serious health problem or other event that takes him out of the race. An indictment involving the Jan. 6 insurrection, Georgia election tampering or taking secret documents wouldn’t force him out. A conviction? Maybe. But he could run from prison and not lose his base.

Biden vs. Trump.

“Say it isn’t so.”

I won’t. Because it seems inevitable. Also, it would inevitably provide a clear contrast on every major issue.

Jack Colwell is a columnist for The Tribune. Write to him in care of The Tribune or by email at jcolwell@comcast.net.

This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: A Biden-Trump rematch seems inevitable