Colwell: Kamala Harris' place on 2024 ticket secure

The Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade has led to all but total bans on abortion in many states, including Indiana, and makes it virtually certain that Kamala Harris again will be the Democratic nominee for vice president in 2024.

Although Harris will be of no help in preventing another likely Donald Trump victory in Indiana — and, in fact, she has an unfavorable rating nationally — Harris has emerged as the most vocal Democratic supporter of abortion rights. Abortion looms as a decisive issue. And Democrats won’t dump their leading spokesperson on their side of that issue.

Back when Harris was plummeting in popularity in 2021, dropping in the average of ratings from 55% approval in April to disapproval territory by that October, with negative news coverage about her staff changes and trips to Mexico and Guatemala, there was speculation about Harris being replaced on the ticket. There is no speculation about that now.

With questions about how vigorous President Biden will be on the campaign trail, Harris is poised to take the fight to Trump, the presumed Republican nominee, and the MAGA base on abortion — also on gun violence, climate change and voting rights.

While Harris has ticked up in some polls, the recent FiveThirtyEight polling average for her was 39.8% favorable, 51.3% unfavorable, a negative gap of 11.5 points.

But Biden was 14.3 points in negative territory. He tended to drop during the administration at close to the same rate as Harris.

Worse, however, was Donald Trump’s place — down in unfavorable regions by 16.3 points.

Everybody was under water. But Biden and Harris both were at least viewed less unfavorably than Trump. Not in Indiana, but in the rest of the nation, including where it counts in the Electoral College.

Another reason why Harris will stay on the ticket is that, despite her overall disapproval ratings, she does best with younger voters, women, African Americans and college graduates. Those groups, vital in the Democratic base, must be energized to get to the polls for continued control of the White House.

Polls show a majority of Americans would prefer a different match-up this time. They fear Biden is too old to be effective through a second term and that Trump, just about as old, is unhinged and living in fantasy about having won in 2020.

It seems, however, that there now are no realistic alternatives.

Trump, even with all the criminal charges he faces, is way ahead of challengers for the Republican nomination. He seems likely to have the nomination sewed up before he faces any jury in the criminal cases.

Ron DeSantis, once regarded as the most serious challenger to Trump, keeps slipping in polls as voters evaluate him more closely.

On the Democratic side, there is no challenger to Biden, except the strange Robert F. Kennedy Jr., written off even by Kennedy family members and supported mainly by Republicans hoping he can cause mischief in Democratic primaries.

If Biden did drop out, the most likely replacement in speculation now is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, with Harris still running for vice president.

Also in the picture would be Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and other Democrats seen as having a bright future.

Would any of them have a better chance than Biden? Biden appeared to have been the only Democrat who would have defeated Trump in 2020. He might again have the best chance, with a nonthreatening style and a hold on the middle ground.

Harris had an important role in Biden’s victory, helping to sway Black and women voters needed for a narrow victory.

Even with her image taking a beating early in the Biden administration, Harris will play an even more important role in the election this time. That was decided by a Supreme Court decision.

Jack Colwell is a columnist for The Tribune. Write to him in care of The Tribune or by email at jcolwell@comcast.net.

This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: Despite negative ratings, Kamala Harris' place on ticket secure