Colwell: Surprise! It's an election spoiler.

Pollsters, pundits and candidates cannot foresee all that will affect the outcome in the months or even in the final days before an election.

It’s especially tough now, nine months before the election.

It was in a late October debate in 2012, when Richard Mourdock, the Republican nominee for the Senate in Indiana, blundered famously, saying that if a woman was raped and became pregnant, that was just “something that God intended to happen.” What was expected to be a close race was won by Democrat Joe Donnelly by 6 percentage points.

In the 2016 presidential race, it was on Oct. 28 when FBI Director James Comey gave Donald Trump a surprise gift, saying he was reviewing additional emails involving Hillary Clinton, found on the infamous Anthony Weiner’s computer. Comey issued a “never mind” on the Sunday before the election, saying there was nothing new.

But Clinton, who had been regarded as having a relatively comfortable lead, sagged and narrowly lost.

What could happen now during the nine-month marathon in the apparent Trump vs. Biden rematch?

A lot: Big surprises, helping or hurting one or the other. New developments on current issues. New issues not in focus now. What the candidates say in debates, if there are any. What others say or do to help or hurt.

Let’s consider a few things that could come into play.

Health is one, especially involving Trump’s mental health and Biden’s physical health.

Will Trump continue to show confusion in rambling, incoherent outbursts, such as accusing Nikki Haley of rejecting 10,000 troops for security at the Capitol on that Jan. 6? She wasn’t in Washington or in government that day, and Trump offered no troops. Evidence that he is no stable genius won’t be accepted by his MAGA base. But it could cost him with independents and more traditional Republicans.

Will Biden, now showing age more in his appearance, hold up physically in a grueling campaign at home and dealing with hostilities abroad? He also will retain a party base. But what if he comes down with flu in late October? How many voters would believe rumors spread on pro-Trump media that Biden was near death or had died, leaving Trump as the only option?

Also, what will Congress do or fail to do as government shutdowns threaten and budget stalemates stall progress on everything from health care to border security?

Will House Republicans or Biden suffer the most politically if stalemate hurts the economy?

It’s unlikely that an FBI director again will play a prominent role. But could Jack Smith, the special counsel pressing felony charges against Trump, have impact this time?

If there is a felony conviction before the election, would wavering voters reject Trump? If there’ is no conviction, perhaps with court delays preventing even the start of any trial, would that bring more support for Trump, as court filings and hearings have done so far?

Could Taylor Swift, already with huge impact on the economy of cities on her tour and on National Football League viewership, bring throngs of young Swifties to register and vote? She brought big increases of young voters in past registration efforts. And she deplores Trump and his policies on social issues and climate. Enthusiasm or lack thereof by young voters could be decisive.

Right-wing conspiracy promoters already are attacking Swift and the Swifties and the Kansas City Chiefs. What will be the effect?

Could Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be significant as an independent? This strange candidate by any other name would have no impact. But with his name, he could be a spoiler, although there’s disagreement over whose chances he would spoil.

What could foreign leaders do to affect the election? Vladimir Putin? Volodymyr Zelenskyy? Benjamin Netanyahu? Others?

There will be surprises. If we knew for sure what they will be, they wouldn’t be surprises.

Jack Colwell is a columnist for The Tribune. Write to him in care of The Tribune or by email at jcolwell@comcast.net.

This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: With nine months until the election, what surprises await?