Here comes the 2023 Oscars BuzzMeter: Behold the buzz!

You thought this day would never come, but here it is: The Oscar Buzz is back!

Each of the six veteran film journalists on our panel has ranked very long-range picks in 10 Oscar categories in Round 1 of the 2023 BuzzMeter. They've mixed their predictions for what will be in the Oscars discussion with their impassioned pleas for what should be to concoct that awards-season alchemy known as the inimitable "Buzzy Round." They'll be back for Round 2 with their predictions for the Oscar nominations and once the actual noms are announced, they'll lay it on the line to predict the Oscar winners in Round 3.

Each round, the panel ranks picks in each category using a points system (most points for top choice) that yields a fair picture of what their roiling group mind believes are the top choices. This early, many potential contenders haven't screened, even for these big shots, so there's some guesswork involved along with straight-up advocacy. In other words, the BuzzMeter lists in this round are also pretty good viewing guides for awards season.

Think you can do better? Fill out your own slate in our online polls for each week's featured category. This week: We spotlight our awards geniuses' picks in best picture.

Who needs a "popular film" category when we may get an even split between art films and blockbusters this year?

In the first round of voting (with a number of possible contenders yet to screen), 26 films received support from the panel. Two points separate the top three pics: "The Fabelmans," "Tár" and "The Banshees of Inisherin."

Steven Spielberg's "Fabelmans," one of this year's "personal" films from major filmmakers, holds the early single-point lead. Also in the Top 10 is another, Sam Mendes' "Empire of Light," with Alejandro González Iñárritu's "Bardo" not having screened at polling time. Interestingly missing the cut is James Gray's hard-truths memoir, "Armageddon Time."

The next two are Todd Fields' "Tár," the Cate Blanchett showcase that is the auteur's first release in 16 years, and multiple Oscar winner Martin McDonagh's "The Banshees of Inisherin." Close behind are Sarah Polley's stunning "Women Talking" and "Decision to Leave," the import by Korean master Park Chan-wook that might just fit in the "Parasite"-"Drive My Car" slot for international films seriously contending for best picture, which would make four straight years of a foreign-language film being nominated for best picture. (Quick! Name the previous three nominees!)

Three crowd pleasers — Indian smash hit "RRR," "The Woman King," "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" and the Michelle Yeoh-starring sleeper hit "Everything Everywhere All at Once" also crack the Top 10. "Top Gun: Maverick," by far the top grosser of 2022 (at least until "Panther" and "Avatar: The Way of Water" make their mark) is buzzing the tower at No. 12.

Panelist Justin Chang says, "We could be looking at a landmark year for action movies in best picture." Tim Cogshell says, " 'The Woman King' is now conquering everything at the box office and 'BPWF' is the most highly anticipated film in the Black-folks and Marvel universes." While Dave Karger asks if there could be "four sequels in this year's main race," he also notes " 'The Fabelmans' is the movie to beat after taking home the coveted People's Choice Award in Toronto" (which Anne Thompson also cites, calling that award "often predictive of best picture").

Panelists pushed aside gossippy coverage to support Olivia Wilde's "Don't Worry Darling." Meanwhile, among the notables not receiving votes in Round 1 (some of which had not yet screened): "Amsterdam," "Bardo," "Broker," "Causeway," "Cha Cha Real Smooth," "My Policeman," "Nope," "She Said," "The Son," "Three Thousand Years of Longing," "Till," "The Whale" and "White Noise."

1. "The Fabelmans”

2. "Tár”

3. "The Banshees of Inisherin”

4. "Women Talking”

5. "The Woman King”

6. (tie) "Everything Everywhere All at Once”

6. (tie) "RRR”

8. "Empire of Light”

9. "Decision to Leave”

10. (tie) "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

10. (tie) "Aftersun"

12. (tie) "Saint Omer"

12. (tie) "Top Gun: Maverick”

14. (tie) "Don’t Worry Darling”

14. (tie) "Triangle of Sadness”

16. (tie) "All the Beauty and the Bloodshed"

16. (tie) "Elvis”

16. (tie) "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

19. (tie) "Emily the Criminal"

19. (tie) "One Fine Morning"

21. (tie) "Babylon”

21. (tie) "Happening"

23. (tie) "Avatar: The Way of Water”

23. (tie) "Bones & All”

23. (tie) "Godland"

23. (tie) "Living”

The panel broadly agrees Steven Spielberg is a top contender for a nomination for his autofiction, "The Fabelmans." He holds the largest lead of any contender in any category. Panelist Dave Karger goes so far as to call him "the favorite to win his third best director prize."

But others in the BuzzMeter passionately advocate for Gina Prince-Bythewood — Tim Cogshell calls her "Woman King" a "towering, David Lean or Kubrickian effort in directing" — and S.S. Rajamouli — Glenn Whipp advocates seeing his "RRR" "on the big screen, where its insane action sequences and furious dance numbers come to life in a way that will affix a smile to your face for the duration of its 3-hour running time." And Claudia Puig says, "I think it will be Sarah Polley's year."

Notably not receiving votes — again, many of their films having not yet screened — previous winners James Cameron ("Avatar: The Way of Water"), Damien Chazelle ("Babylon") and Guillermo del Toro ("Pinocchio"), as well as Darren Aronofsky ("The Whale") and George Miller ("Three Thousand Years of Longing").

1. Steven Spielberg ("The Fabelmans”)

2. Park Chan-wook ("Decision to Leave”)

3. (tie) Martin McDonagh ("The Banshees of Inisherin”)

3. (tie) Sarah Polley ("Women Talking”)

5. Todd Field ("Tár”)

6. Gina Prince-Bythewood ("The Woman King”)

7. Ryan Coogler ("Black Panther: Wakanda Forever")

8. (tie) Jafar Panahi ("No Bears")

8. (tie) S.S. Rajamouli ("RRR")

10. (tie) Alejandro González Iñárritu ("Bardo”)

10. (tie) Rian Johnson ("Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”)

10. (tie) Jordan Peele ("Nope”)

13. (tie) Claire Denis ("Both Sides of the Blade”)

13. (tie) Baz Luhrmann ("Elvis")

15. Sam Mendes ("Empire of Light”)

Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh open tied at the top, for high-degree-of-difficulty performances that couldn't be more different from each other. Previous winners Viola Davis and Olivia Colman make the Top 5 as well. Panelist Tim Cogshell says Davis' performance in "Woman King" is "the most powerful and overwhelming creation I've seen on screen since Viola Davis’ powerful and overwhelming performance as Ma Rainey in ‘Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.’ "

It's Yeoh who draws the loudest chorus of support amongst our panelists for her work in the sleeper hit "Everything Everywhere All at Once":

Glenn Whipp asks, "How has Michelle Yeoh never been nominated for an Oscar? She wasn't even recognized for her sublmie turn in 'Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,' which seems bonkers two decades later"; and Justin Chang says she "should have an armload of Oscar nominations by now. Her citation here will be well deserved in an industry that still sees actors of Asian descent as expendable — or worse, interchangeable.”

The field is so packed that widely praised, powerhouse and/or much-discussed performances such as those by Ana de Armas ("Blonde"), Rooney Mara ("Women Talking"), Keke Palmer ("Nope"), Tang Wei ("Decision to Leave") and Danielle Deadwyler ("Till") don't crack the Round-1 Top 5. And those don't even count prominent roles played by recent Oscar winners Jessica Chastain ("The Good Nurse"), Penélope Cruz ("Official Competition") and Jennifer Lawrence ("Causeway"), which failed to receive any votes in the opening phase.

1. (tie) Cate Blanchett ("Tár”)

1. (tie) Michelle Yeoh ("Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

3. Michelle Williams ("The Fabelmans")

4. Viola Davis ("The Woman King”)

5. (tie) Olivia Colman ("Empire of Light”)

5. (tie) Françoise Lebrun ("Vortex")

7. (tie) Ana de Armas ("Blonde”)

7. (tie) Juliette Binoche ("Both Sides of the Blade”)

7. (tie) Emma Thompson ("Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”)

10. (tie) Keke Palmer ("Nope”)

10. (tie) Tang Wei ("Decision to Leave”)

12. (tie) Rooney Mara ("Women Talking”)

12. (tie) Danielle Deadwyler ("Till”)

14. (tie) Taylor Russell ("Bones and All”)

14. (tie) Anamaria Vartolomei ("Happening")

Will this be the year that Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser and Bill Nighy finally leave the ranks of highly respected actors most people assume have been nominated for Oscars, but haven't? The No. 2 contender in the BuzzMeter's Top 5 in Round 1, relative newcomer Austin Butler (the 31-year-old's first credit was a mere 16 years ago) is also looking for his first nom — which means four of the actors in the Top 5 could be first-time nominees.

If all five are — and yet-to-be nominees Adam Sandler (“Hustle”), Jonathan Majors (“Devotion”), Gabrielle LaBelle (“The Fabelmans”), Micheal Ward (“Empire of Light”) and Daniel Craig (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) are among the bona fide contenders — that would be the first time in a looooong time. Any guesses when, and who won then? (See below)

Farrell won the best-actor prize at Venice and as panelist Glenn Whipp says, "Colin Farrell broke my heart in ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ and his mournful (and funny!) work in that film should earn him his first Oscar nomination." But as multiple panelists note, he could actually earn his first two noms if voters feel like honoring a Bat-villain not in clownface; Farrell's near-unrecognizable turn as The Penguin in "The Batman" was a highlight and possibly worth a supporting nod.

Apart from Farrell and the long-beloved Nighy, never-nominated vet Brendan Fraser is a strong candidate and "the early emotional frontrunner after the rhapsodic festival response to his performance in ‘The Whale,' " says Dave Karger.

Whipp and Tim Cogshell also sing the praises of Austin Butler's Elvis impersonation — high praise indeed, considering Cogshell's qualifications: "I can do a pretty good Elvis," he says, and "Butler managed to pull off all the stages of ‘Elvis,’ from ducktails and penny loafers to pork-chop sideburns and leather jumpsuits, and I never giggled once."

Either because he was slap-happy or because he likes pulling pins from grenades, Cogshell also threw an unexpected name in from the yet-to-be-screened "Emancipation": Will Smith.

By the way, the last time all those in the lead-actor category were first-time Oscar nominees was 1934, when there were only three nominees, and Clark Gable won for "It Happened One Night."

1. Colin Farrell ("The Banshees of Inisherin”)

2. Austin Butler ("Elvis”)

3. Brendan Fraser ("The Whale”)

4. Bill Nighy ("Living”)

5. Hugh Jackman ("The Son”)

6. Daniel Kaluuya ("Nope”)

7. Jack Lowden ("Benediction")

8. Franz Rogowski ("Great Freedom")

9. Tom Cruise ("Top Gun: Maverick”)

10. (tie) Jeremy Pope ("The Inspection”)

10. (tie) Park Hae-il ("Decision to Leave”)

10. (tie) Adam Sandler ("Hustle”)

13. (tie) Will Smith ("Emancipation")

13. (tie) Eden Dambrine ("Close”)

For her soulful turn in "Women Talking," Jessie Buckley holds a dominating lead over runner-up Kerry Condon in Round 1 — with nearly four times as many votes as the contenders falling just outside the circle of five (likely nominees). The "Women Talking" ensemble places two others on the list: Judith Ivey and Claire Foy, who just misses the Top 5. Also worthy of consideration from this deep group: Canadian star Sheila McCarthy.

“You could easily fill out the supporting-actress category with members of the ‘Women Talking’ ensemble and call it a day," says panelist Glenn Whipp. "But room must also be made for Nina Hoss playing Cate Blanchett’s long-suffering partner in ‘Tár.’ See the movie for the single closeup that should earn her a nomination.”

Dave Karger says, "Expect at least one slot to go to the cast of ‘Women Talking,’ and one to go to ‘Banshees of Inisherin’ breakout Kerry Condon. And Janelle Monáe will certainly be the name on everyone’s lips after ’Glass Onion’ drops on Netflix.”

Gabrielle Union's appearance in "The Inspection" is brief, but compelling. She, Dolly de Leon and Janelle Monáe all land barely outside the Top 5. If "The Woman King" gets serious awards momentum, the charismatic turn by Lashana Lynch could benefit.

1. Jessie Buckley ("Women Talking”)

2. Kerry Condon ("The Banshees of Inisherin”)

3. Janelle Monáe ("Glass Onion”)

4. (tie) Stephanie Hsu ("Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

4. (tie) Nina Hoss ("Tár”)

6. (tie) Claire Foy ("Women Talking”)

6. (tie) Gabrielle Union ("The Inspection”)

6. (tie) Dolly de Leon ("Triangle of Sadness")

9. Olivia Wilde ("Babylon”)

10. (tie) Judith Ivey ("Women Talking")

10. (tie) Whoopi Goldberg ("Till")

10. (tie) Kristen Stewart ("Crimes of the Future”)

13. (tie) Angela Bassett ("Black Panther: Wakanda Forever")

13. (tie) Zoe Kravitz ("The Batman”)

13. (tie) Lashana Lynch ("The Woman King”)

16. (tie) Hong Chau ("The Whale”)

16. (tie) Jamie Lee Curtis ("Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Justice for Short Round!

Ke Huy Quan, whom most moviegoers will remember as Harrison Ford's young sidekick in "Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom," had gone 19 years between acting credits (the 2002 feature "Second Time Around" and last year's "Finding Ohana"), taking on various behind-the-scenes roles such as assistant director and stunt coordinator. Now, for his versatile, sympathetic performance as the husband of lead Michelle Yeoh in "Everything Everywhere All at Once," he sits firmly in second place the BuzzMeter's first-round list of supporting-actor contenders — with double the points of the third-place finishers.

Just ahead of him in first place is Brendan Gleeson of "The Banshees of Inisherin," which could easily land multiple acting nominations, including for Kerry Condon and Barry Keoghan's touching supporting performances and Colin Farrell's lead work.

Speaking of Farrell, who's No. 1 on the BuzzMeter's first-round lead-actor list, he's tied for No. 3 on the supporting-actor list (with Brian Tyree Henry of "Causeway") for his "Who the hell is that?" disappearance into the role of the Bat-villain The Penguin in "The Batman" (which, by the way, features a cameo from Keoghan, clowning around as another prominent Bat-villain). A nom isn't the craziest notion here; after all, two actors playing The Joker have won the Oscar. By the way, Farrell and Keoghan's Bat-costar Paul Dano (The Riddler in that film) rounds out the Top 5.

Tom Hanks' Col. Parker in "Elvis" has raised eyebrows mainly for his idiosyncratic accent in the role. However, resident Elvisologist Tim Cogshell says the work was "dead on, but that’s not always what the audience is looking for — particularly when the role calls for an oddly mannered performance to achieve a realism that itself is hard to believe … but the Colonel did talk that way. Yep.”

1. Brendan Gleeson ("The Banshees of Inisherin”)

2. Ke Huy Quan ("Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

3. (tie) Brian Tyree Henry ("Causeway”)

3. (tie) Colin Farrell ("The Batman”)

5. Paul Dano ("The Fabelmans”)

6. Ben Whishaw ("Women Talking”)

7. Judd Hirsch ("The Fabelmans")

8. (tie) Barry Keoghan ("The Banshees of Inisherin”)

8. (tie) Tom Hanks ("Elvis”)

8. (tie) Luca Sabin ("Întregalde")

11. Georg Friedrich ("Great Freedom")

12. (tie) Eddie Redmayne ("The Good Nurse")

12. (tie) Val Kilmer ("Top Gun: Maverick")

14. (tie) Anthony Hopkins ("Armageddon Time”)

14. (tie) Michael K. Williams ("Breaking")

As panelist Anne Thompson points out, “Auteurs rule the original-screenplay category." Among those at or near the top of the BuzzMeter's first-round picks: Todd Field ("Tár”), previous winner Martin McDonagh ("The Banshees of Inisherin"), Steven Spielberg (with a rare co-writing credit, with frequent collaborator Tony Kushner, on "The Fabelmans"), previous winner Jordan Peele ("Nope"), Ruben Östlund ("The Triangle of Sadness") and Park Chan-wook (a co-writer on "Decision to Leave"). Even the wildly original "Everything Everywhere All at Once," written and directed by Daniels (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) fits the description.

Justin Chang pointed out that Field is "two for two with the academy’s writers branch, having received adapted screenplay nominations for his first two features, ‘In the Bedroom’ and ‘Little Children.’ With ‘Tár,’ his first original script, he could and should go three for three."

Outside of that group, "The Woman King" received significant support. “A bit of controversy about historical accuracy notwithstanding, I love the story told in ‘The Woman King.’ It’s sweeping, dynamic and exhilarating, and it left me feeling proud," said Tim Cogshell.

Cogshell also praised "Elvis," saying it "corrects some notions about his relationship with the Black community that have lingered for far too long. For the record (as in the movie), Black folks loved Elvis for a lot of good reasons — and he loved Black folks for a lot of good reasons, too.”

1. "The Banshees of Inisherin”

2. "Tár”

3. "Nope”

4. "The Fabelmans”

5. "Everything Everywhere All at Once”

6. "The Woman King”

7. (tie) "Elvis”

7. (tie) "Saint Omer"

9. (tie) "Aftersun”

9. (tie) "Babylon”

9. (tie) "Decision to Leave”

9. (tie) "Triangle of Sadness”

13. (tie) "Armageddon Time”

13. (tie) "Till”

Sarah Polley's adaptation of Miriam Toews' novel "Women Talking" enjoys one of the largest leads of any contender in any category (tied for second with Colin Farrell in his lead-actor category), with more than 50% more votes than runner-up "Glass Onion."

“Expect Rian Johnson and Sarah Polley to dominate this race for their wildly different ensemble films, ‘Glass Onion’ and ‘Women Talking,' " said panelist Dave Karger. " ‘The Father’ collaborators Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton could make it back into this category for ‘The Son,’ while the other two slots are up for grabs at this point.”

"On the studio side," said Anne Thompson, "the script for ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ provided the foundation for the year’s most popular non-Marvel global blockbuster.”

Meanwhile, Luca Guadagnino’s "Bones and All" was to Glenn Whipp's tastes. He called it "a tender story of fine young cannibals trying to negotiate their natures ... [it] doesn’t scream ‘Oscar movie.’ But as a love story spiritually attuned to Terrence Malick’s ‘Badlands’ and possessing an acute understanding of what people on society’s margins must do to survive, it has the chops to connect with astute voters.”

1. “Women Talking”

2. “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

3. “Living”

4. “Bones & All”

5. "Happening"

6. “Top Gun: Maverick”

7. (tie) “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

7. (tie) “The Son”

9. “She Said”

10. “Both Sides of the Blade”

10. (tie) “Blonde”

12. (tie) “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”

12. (tie) "Pearl"

12. (tie) “The Whale”

Park Chan-wook's tantalizing noir "Decision to Leave" (South Korea) and Alice Diop's courtroom drama "Saint Omer" (France) have separated themselves from the pack in Round 1, coming in with sizable leads over the rest of the field.

Comfortably in first place, "Decision's" enthusiastic support in multiple BuzzMeter categories teases the possibility of a non-English-language film being nominated for best picture for the fourth straight year. Meanwhile, panelist Claudia Puig writes, "The contest may likely be between ‘Argentina 1985’ and ‘St. Omer,’ both of which largely take place in a courtroom, but are vastly different storywise."

Whatever the nominees, Justin Chang writes, "The academy’s international feature Oscar submission process has long been antiquated and corrupt, not least because it allows authoritarian regimes to select films that serve their political aims. Given Iran’s ongoing persecution of dissident filmmakers like Mohammad Rasoulof and Jafar Panahi — whose much-acclaimed new movie, ‘No Bears,’ naturally had no shot at being submitted — there’s never been a better time for an overhaul.”

1. "Decision to Leave" (South Korea)

2. "Saint Omer" (France)

3. (tie) "Argentina 1985" (Argentina, US)

3. (tie) "Godland" (Iceland, Denmark, France, Sweden)

5. "Corsage" (Austria)

6. "Close" (Belgium)

7. (tie) "All Quiet on the Western Front" (Germany)

7. (tie) "Hold Me Tight" (French, German)

9. (tie) "Holy Spider" (Denmark)

9. (tie) "EO" (Poland)

11. (tie) "Alam" (Palestine)

11. (tie) "Bardo" (Mexico)

12. (tie) "Klondike" (Ukraine)

13. "Casablanca Beats" (Morocco)

Atop the Round-1 animated feature list are entries from longtime juggernaut Disney-Pixar ("Turning Red") and new juggernaut Netflix ("Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio"). Neither of those, however, received the most passionate support from panelists.

"My personal favorite is ‘Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,’ which moved me to tears at last year’s Telluride Film Festival," said Dave Karger. "How wonderful it would be to see that unique film make the cut.”

While praising some others, Tim Cogshell said, "The only animation I’ve seen thus far that I’d give an Academy Award to is ‘The Bob’s Burgers Movie,’ which isn’t much more than an extended episode of ‘Bob’s Burgers.’ But ‘Bob’s Burgers’ is a great show. So... ”

And Justin Chang wrote, “Kid-friendly studio animation has long had a deathgrip on this category, which makes it even more of a shame that Richard Linklater’s lovely ‘Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood’ was ridiculously disqualified for consideration — especially since his earlier rotoscoped features, ’Waking Life’ and ‘A Scanner Darkly,’ were accepted (though not nominated). Oh, well. Vote for ‘Inu-oh’!”

1. “Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio”

2. "Turning Red"

3. (tie) “Inu-Oh”

4. (tie) “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”

5. “Minions: The Rise of Gru”

6. (tie) “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”

6. (tie) “The Bad Guys”

6. (tie) “The Bob’s Burgers Movie”

9. (tie) "Charlotte"

9. (tie) “Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood”

11. "Luck"

12. “Lightyear”

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.