Commentary: U.S. Can Halt Moldova's Descent Into Dictatorship
The Republic of Moldova was once the poster child for the European Union's Eastern Partnership program. Today -- locked between the EU's member states to its west, the separatist Soviet breakaway state of Transnistria to its east, and the restive, Russian-speaking region of Ukraine to its south -- Moldova remains the continent's poorest economy. The country is steadily moving further away from Euro-Atlanticism, American ideals and European integration in favor of ties to Moscow.
Moldova has been forgotten for many reasons -- namely, internal disputes between the EU member states and impeachment proceedings in the United States. Unfortunately, we cannot defer action any longer in Moldova. A Moscow-backed dictatorship has emerged in the country, with a president whose family is doing business with Kremlin-backed oligarchs and who is persecuting its pro-Western opponents. A nation lost in transition now risks the same fate as Ukraine.
The pro-Western revolution that took place in Moldova in 2009 came after decades of communist rule. The country witnessed tangible benefits in the form of visa liberalization for Moldovan nationals, the ratification of free trade agreements with the EU and the release of generous U.S. funding. Serious structural change was hindered by corruption and clientelism, but in powerful pro-Western businessmen such as Vladimir Plahotniuc and the Democratic Party's coalition, Moldova's pro- Russia Socialist Party was forced to steer clear of deep diplomatic ties to Russia and instead sign an association agreement with the EU. Plahotniuc was the only check on current President Igor N. Dodon. Since Plahotniuc's decision to seek exile last June, Dodon has steered Moldova from the European path. Moldova is now deeply affiliated with Moscow.
America's benevolence, in words and actions, made a clear impact on Moldova's political direction. Under the Democratic Party of Moldova's coalition, America's democratic ideals felt attainable. Reform, discourse and political plurality were infinitely preferable to the bullying tactics -- via gas contracts, export bans and other threats that have long characterized Russian President Vladimir Putin's aim to divide and rule in the post-Soviet states. Moldova was far from perfect -- but still Western in focus.
Moldova's current circumstances stem from elections in 2019, where the country's four main political parties split the electorate, leaving Plahotniuc's Democratic Party and Maia Sandu's ACUM Electoral Bloc unable to reach a coalition agreement with Dodon's Socialist Party. The government ultimately formed in June 2019 was reluctantly approved by the U.S. -- which favored Sandu becoming prime minister -- despite popular unrest, mass resignations from Democratic Party lawmakers and several statements of grave unease by members of the European Parliament.
Since the disastrous events of the 2019 elections, the narrative has turned. Under a president with personal commercial ties to Putin's inner circle, Moldova has begun to resemble a family business -- where key strategic assets now belong to politically affiliated Russian oligarchs, and all efforts to move toward EU integration appear forgotten. Dodon's brother, Alexandru, is currently developing 1 million square meters of luxury real estate in central Moscow with the son of Russia's former prosecutor general, Yuri Chaika. Yuri's son, Igor Chaika, has also been able to acquire all broadcast rights for Russian TV networks in Moldova, following a presidential decree that overturned a ban imposed by Plahotniuc's party on Russian propaganda.
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Dodon has asserted a vehemently pro-Moscow agenda, which has seen Moldova sign gas deals with Moscow that compromise the country's energy security. The president's aggressive attempts to crush all dissent from the country's pro-Western democrat opposition also are deeply troubling. Western diplomats must condemn these tactics and support democratic forces, or Chisinau will face circumstances no different than Kyiv's.
Washington's proclaimed goal was to "welcome democratic change in Moldova." Sadly, Sandu was dismissed as prime minister by Dodon within six months, while political opposition leaders like Plahotniuc chose exile. Less than one year after the Eastern Partnership Program celebrated its 10th anniversary, we have replaced a government with indisputable problems with an authoritarian one-party state that has no place in modern Europe. Neither the EU nor the U.S. appear to offer any solution -- which is proving damning for both Moldova and the wider region.
In a recent editorial on the subject, political scientist Jasmin Mujanovi?, who is widely considered to be the region's conscience, articulated the waning relevance of Western politics in Central and Eastern Europe, observing that "the chaos of post-2016 domestic politics in the U.K. and U.S. has decimated the foreign policy capacities of both London and Washington. What remains of their foreign policy communities has managed only to execute a handful of important regional stopgap measures and the occasional photo-op."
With no democratic opposition to Dodon, warnings by former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton have proved true. Moldova has taken a sudden dive from quasi-pluralist democracy to oppressive dictatorship in a journey that has clear parallels to the events of 2013 in Ukraine. The U.S. State Department's failure to condemn Dodon's leadership and to take steps to support Moldova's legitimate opposition has translated into a policy of rapprochement with a pro-Russian president -- which unfortunately facilitates and forgives this regime's attacks on its population, and opposition.
The U.S. needs to encourage dialogue with the few opposition figures who can halt this crisis. The diplomatic community must negotiate, and not burn bridges with those who can change the country's course. Plahotniuc is a key political figure whose party dominated pro-Western politics in the country until 2019. In January 2020, the U.S. moved to prevent Plahotniuc from entering the U.S., which U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated was done (in order to protect) "democratic institutions in Moldova." Given Pompeo's track record on the region, and his understanding of who the key players in politics are, this gesture felt like the result of muddled diplomatic reporting rather than a flat condemnation of the businessman.
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Plahotniuc has been the only check on Dodon, and as the 2018 U.S. spending bill does not require the secretary of state to give any evidence for corruption charges like those raised against Plahotniuc that barred his entry to the U.S., the move is highly counterproductive. By appearing to act against the only check on Moldova's president, the U.S. is creating a sense of consolidation around his government. Dodon praised former Ukrainian President Viktor V. Yanukovych via his personal website for crushing the protesters in Ukraine's popular "Maidan" protests, yet now presents himself as a leader endorsed by both Russia and the U.S. Washington must state the truth, in a way the American electorate will respect. Democracy is created through negotiation, and the United States must recognize that by ceding broadcast rights to his brother's business partner, Dodon has been able to blacken Plahotniuc's reputation with charges that absolutely lack basis.
If Moldova is to be kept in the EU's sphere of influence, and is to return to some form of democracy, Plahotniuc's return is the only solution to ensure the state's territorial integrity. Mounting EU pressure is necessary for crucial institutional reforms sought to improve political stability and continue remittance of vital budgetary support payments.
Whether Plahotniuc is liked, he intended to better relations with NATO. He addressed people's concerns by barring access to the Russian military in the Transnistrian region, thereby blocking plans to federalize the country as a close Putin ally.
Moldova suffered a vicious internecine conflict in the 1990s which left thousands dead or displaced. If the U.S. acts now, and brings all stakeholders back into the political process, Moldova can avert Ukraine's fate. We urge the diplomatic community to speak before it is too late.
Christina Petru, Ph.D, is a retired economist, who contributes to BNE Intellinews and Emerging Europe. Dr. Petru has consulted for international lenders and third sector organizations across the former Soviet Union such as the World Bank since the early 1990s. Olga Kousi is an academic with specific provenance in the CIS/CEE. Kousi holds several post graduate qualifications in international relations from the University of St. Andrews and the London School of Economics.
