Which Commonwealth leaders are loyal to the King – and which could sever ties
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When Harry and Meghan posed for pictures with the Jamaican prime minister Andrew Holness on the red carpet earlier this week, there was one topic of conversation on which all three would have had much to say: how to move on from the monarchy.
Mr Holness, who has said he wants Jamaica to sever ties with the Crown, greeted the Duke and Duchess of Sussex alongside his wife at the premiere of One Love, a new biopic about Bob Marley, in Kingston.
He is one of several Commonwealth realm leaders calling for the British monarch to be removed as head of state. The calls for change are loudest in the Caribbean, where racial justice groups channel a growing anger about atrocities committed during colonial rule.
Far from resisting Republican sentiment, King Charles has emphasised the right of each nation to choose their constitutional relationship with the monarchy.
In June 2022, speaking to Commonwealth prime ministers and presidents in Rwanda, the King – then the Prince of Wales – said retaining the Queen as head of state or becoming a republic was “a matter for each member country to decide”. Such fundamental changes could be made “calmly and without rancour”, he added.
However, the 15 leaders of the nations which recognise the British monarch as their head of state are far from united in their attitude towards the House of Windsor. While some, like Mr Holness, have spoken openly of their desire to break away, others, including Justin Trudeau in Canada, remain pro-monarchy.
This constitutional reckoning is no mere philosophical debate. In November 2021, Barbados became the first country to replace the Queen as head of state since Mauritius in 1992.
“Vessel Republic Barbados has set sail on her maiden voyage,” declared Dame Sandra Mason, 72, as she was sworn in as the island’s president-elect.
Here, The Telegraph explores which prime ministers are most likely to follow in her wake – and which leaders will continue to stay close to the Crown.
Most likely
Jamaica – Andrew Michael Holness
Holness has been clear in his desire to “move on” from the monarchy. During the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge’s tour of Jamaica, in March 2022, he told the couple that the nation was “moving on and we intend to attain in short order our development goals and fulfil our true ambitions as an independent, developed, prosperous country”.
He confirmed this plan in March last year, writing on Twitter: “The goal is to ultimately produce a new Constitution of Jamaica, establishing the Republic of Jamaica and affirming our self-determination and cultural heritage.” This public statement followed a video by his minister of legal and constitutional affairs, setting out a framework for a “new modern constitution”.
Antigua and Barbuda – Gaston Alfonso Browne
Mere moments after Charles III was confirmed as King in September 2022, Gaston Alfonso Browne said he planned to hold a referendum on becoming a republic within three years.
Speaking to ITV News at an Accession ceremony at Government House in the capital St John’s, he said: “It does not represent any form of disrespect to the monarch. This is not an act of hostility, or any difference between Antigua and Barbuda and the monarchy.
“It is a final step to complete the circle of independence to become a truly sovereign nation.”
In addition to this ambition, Alfonso Browne has also discussed the payment of slavery reparations with senior royals. During a visit by the Earl and Countess of Wessex for the celebration of Queen Elizabeth’s Platinum Jubilee, he told the couple: “We believe that all human civilisation should understand the atrocities that took place.”
The Bahamas – Philip Edward ‘Brave’ Davis KC MP
A constitutional referendum is “always” on the table, according to prime minister Philip Edward “Brave” Davis.
Speaking after signing a book of condolence in the Bahamian Senate following the death of Queen Elizabeth, Davis told reporters: “For me, it always is, but again it is our people who will have to decide.
“The only challenge with us moving to a republic is that I can’t, as much as I would wish to do it, I cannot do it without your consent.”
In the same speech, he lauded King Charles for being an “early and vigorous proponent” of environmentalism. A year later, he described Charles’s leadership as “wise and compassionate” following the King’s Coronation.
Belize – John Antonio Briceño
Anger against atrocities committed during colonial rule has also fuelled Briceño’s drive to leave the Commonwealth realm. Asked in May 2023 if he believed that Belize could be the next state to leave after Barbados’s exit in 2021, Briceño said: “I think the chance is quite high. It’s quite likely.”
After taking office in 2020 as leader of the centre-Left People’s United party, in 2021 he passed a parliamentary resolution committing the government to seek reparatory justice from the UK “on behalf of the former slaves and their descendants of Belize”.
The former British colony, on the north-eastern coast of Central America, felt “no excitement” at the King’s Coronation, he added.
“We are so far away from the UK,” he said. “You don’t see people taking out their Union Jack flags or anything.”
Maybe
Australia – Anthony Albanese
It is unclear what prime minister Anthony Albanese plans to do when it comes to moving away from the Crown. Following King Charles’s Coronation, Albanese ruled out holding a referendum on keeping the monarch, telling Sky News that now was the “time to pay tribute to Queen Elizabeth II” and to show “deep respect and admiration”, rather than to pursue “questions about our constitution”.
However, the announcement may be no more than a temporary truce. A self-proclaimed Republican, he has previously supported his party’s intention to hold a referendum on the matter, and said in November 2019 that controversies surrounding Prince Andrew “reminded Australia about why we need an Australian head of state”.
Least likely
Canada – Justin Trudeau
Justin Trudeau has signalled strong support for retaining Charles as monarch, praising his “deeply felt commitment to education, the environment, and the empowerment of young people”. In a statement issued at Charles’s accession to the Crown in September 2022, he wrote: “On behalf of the Government of Canada, we affirm our loyalty to Canada’s new King, His Majesty King Charles III, and offer him our full support.”
In this loyalty he diverges somewhat from the views of the Canadian public, of which 77 per cent said – in a poll published two weeks after his proclamation – they feel “no attachment to the British monarchy”.
Tuvalu – Kausea Natano
King Charles’s interest in environmentalism has won him support in the independent nation of Tuvalu, with honorary consul Iftikhar Ayaz telling Associated Press in September 2022: “I think, since our present King has been very keen on climate change and sustainable environment, he will surely continue his vision of doing something concrete to help such islands.”
This is a key issue for the Pacific island, with 95 per cent of the land area predicted to be “regularly flooded” by 2100, according to the UN.
An opinion poll conducted in 2023 found 71 per cent of the population was in favour of retaining the monarchy, while 26 per cent wanted Tuvalu to become a republic – making it more pro-monarchy than even the United Kingdom, where only 57 per cent are in favour.
When the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge visited in 2019, they were garlanded with sea shells and carried on a throne by 25 islanders. Prince William described a night of dancing on the beach as “an amazing evening”.
