Competition is top-heavy on Republican primary ballot
Jun. 12—President Joe Biden's low standing in the polls, the power of redistricting and some key retirements have produced a lot of competition in Republican primaries up and down the ballot this fall.
Meanwhile, a lack of choices on the Democratic side makes it more likely that independents could play a big role in the outcome of GOP primary contests on Sept. 13.
At the top of the ballot, 35 Republicans are running for the top four offices — governor, U.S. senator and New Hampshire's two U.S. House seats.
By contrast, only six Democrats have signed up for those spots — with Sen. Maggie Hassan facing only token opposition.
"With little reason to vote Democratic, this could help moderate candidates try to overcome conservative votes that typically dominate in Republican primaries," said Mike Dennehy, a veteran GOP campaign operative.
Paul Krautmann, a retired pediatric dentist from Keene who got 3% of the vote against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in 2020, is running against Hassan.
So is John Riggieri of Concord, who said he'll focus on ways Congress could curb gun violence in public schools.
"This does seem to be an election in which all the early interest has been at the top," said Secretary of State David Scanlan. "For more than a year, candidates have been running on the Republican side for the U.S. Senate."
Dennis Lamare, a perennial candidate from Lee, said he registered to run for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination for a simple reason.
"No one Republican is dominating this race. That's why you are seeing so many decide to give it a try," Lamare said.
State Senate races
Seasoned observers admit the level of competition is less than had been expected, however, especially given the desire of former President Trump's political organization to roll up swing-state victories in the midterm elections.
When eight incumbent state senators decided to retire from politics, many expected some spirited primaries. But few serious ones have developed in either party.
"I thought we would see more wide-open Senate races. This has been an unpredictable year," said Greg Moore, state director of the fiscally conservative Americans for Prosperity.
Dennehy said one reason is that some of those lining up to replace retiring Senate incumbents — such as Reps. Tim Lang, R-Sanborton, and Howard Pearl, R-Loudon — are popular with conservatives and face only unknown primary foes.
"If a state rep with some experience wants to do it and has a proven record that people respect, it can be hard to run against that," Dennehy said.
The most competitive Senate race on the Republican side is in greater Manchester, where state Rep. Barbara Griffin of Goffstown squares off against Rep. Michael Yakubovich of Hooksett in District 16. Democrat Kevin Cavanaugh of Manchester is not seeking reelection.
Senate redistricting made Cavanaugh's district much harder to win, so he's running for the Executive Council against Manchester incumbent Republican Ted Gatsas.
No Democrat has signed up to run in Cavanaugh's old district.
Party leaders have until next Wednesday to fill any vacancies on the ballot. Democrats have four state Senate vacancies; Republicans have two.
The only Senate Democratic primary is in Keene, where Rep. Donovan Fenton faces Bob Williams to replace retiring Democrat Jay Kahn.
"Democrats have a slate of fantastic candidates who will fight for New Hampshire values and stand up to the harmful, out-of-touch, and extreme agenda of the N.H. GOP," said state Democratic Party Chairman Raymond Buckley.
Perikles Karoutas, a consultant who advises many GOP Senate hopefuls, said he expected his clients to have to face more serious Democratic rivals.
For example, no liberal signed up to oppose Senate candidate and ex-Claremont Mayor Charlene Lovett, a former Republican legislator who strongly opposes abortion and gun control.
"I know they don't like primaries, but it's shocking to see her get a pass," said Karoutas, who is advising Lovett's opponent, Sen. Ruth Ward, R-Stoddard.
Tone hurts recruitment
The challenge for Republicans will be to ensure these high-profile primaries at the top of the ballot don't leave too many losing candidates unwilling to close ranks and help primary winners regroup for an unusually short seven-week general election campaign.
"You can see those two congressional races have the potential to get pretty rough," Moore said. "For sure there will be fences to mend."
Political organizers in both parties say recruitment is tough in 2022, with the worsening economy and sour public discourse contributing to it.
"It's hard to get anyone to run these days when it is so negative everywhere you look in politics," said Glenn Brackett, president of the state's AFL-CIO.
In the House of Representatives, the GOP competition is the result of retirements and new seats created by redistricting.
A case in point is Pelham, which, for the first time in four decades, will elect its own House members.
Six Republicans have signed up to seek the four seats.
In Londonderry, two GOP legislators with more than 35 years of seniority — Al Baldasaro and Betsy McKinney — are retiring.
In response, nine have filed to seek the town's seven seats, leaving House Speaker Sherman Packard, R-Londonderry, in the unusual position of competition to win renomination.
"The speaker will be fine, but the rest of us have some work to do," said Londonderry Rep. Wayne MacDonald, a former state GOP party chairman.
Goffstown has two House incumbents leaving — Griffin and John Burt — and five are seeking the town's four GOP nominations.
Anti-vax mandate forces
The most powerful new force on the political landscape —activists banded together by opposition to COVID-19 vaccine mandates — has its own "under the radar" plan to influence voter choices in the primary races.
Terese Grinnell of Loudon, a leader in the anti-vaccine mandate organization, signed up to oppose Gatsas in the primary.
And another anti-vaccine mandate protester, Anne Copp of Nashua, is running against Councilor David Wheeler, R-Milford.
Grinnell said like-minded groups are recruiting candidates who will run aggressive write-in campaigns against many GOP incumbents.
"I decided Friday morning to file as a candidate on the ballot, but there will be many more of us under the radar now who will emerge online in the coming weeks," Grinnell said.
"We are 100% focused on the top 30 — the governor, five councilors and 24 state senators."
Her organization plans to feature events with write-in candidates and to urge voters to go to a website for instructions on how to cast a vote for someone not on the ballot.
"Trust me, people will wake up on Sept. 14 and realize we have made a difference."
