Conclusions to be drawn on Dolphins’ front seven, as Wilkins’ decision looms

Second in a week-long series with facts and conclusions about Dolphins personnel

Facts and conclusions on the Dolphins’ defensive front seven, with Miami facing decisions now on whether to keep three of the starters (free agents Christian Wilkins and Raekwon Davis, plus Jerome Baker, who has no guaranteed money due):

▪ Fact: The final metrics confirmed what was suspected about this group: They were plenty good enough against the run and (for the most part) very productive as pass rushers. But the linebackers weren’t good enough in coverage.

Let’s start with the good news: The Dolphins allowed just 3.8 yards per carry, which was eighth best in the league.

Among 130 interior defenders, PFF rated Wilkins 17th best against the run, Zach Sieler 34th best and Raekwon Davis 76th best.

Among 83 inside linebackers, PFF rated Davis Long Jr. first against the run and Baker 67th.

Among 116 outside linebackers, PFF ranked Jaelan Phillips 17th against the run, Andrew Van Ginkel 19th and Bradley Chubb 27th. That’s excellent.

▪ Conclusion: The importance of stopping the run provides the most compelling evidence of bringing this front seven back, unless Davis can essentially be exchanged for a better player at similar money.

Incidentally, PFF has a category called “run stops.” A stop constitutes a “win” for the defense or conversely a “loss” for the offense. PFF describes a “stop” further as an offensive gain on first down that is kept to less than 40 percent of the line to gain, less than 50 percent of the line to gain on second down and any third- or fourth-down play kept without a first down or touchdown.

The good news is that Sieler and Wilkins were tied for 17th, among all interior defenders, with 24 such stops. The bad news is that was well below last season, when Wilkins had 46 of those run stops — easily the highest in the league; Sieler was second with 36.

Wilkins’ overall tackles were down from 98 to 65, as were his tackles for loss (16 to 10).

Davis, incidentally, had 15 stops in 251 run defense chances, which were 58th most among interior defenders.

▪ Fact: Wilkins and Sieler produced by far the best pass rushing numbers of their careers.

Sieler’s 10 sacks were third among all defensive tackles, and Wilkins’ nine sacks were fifth.

Wilkins’ 61 pressures were eighth most among interior linemen; his 23 hits were nearly as many as his total (27) in his first four seasons.

Sieler’s 60 pressures were ninth among all NFL interior linemen and his QB hits jumped from 12 to 22. This frames it best: Sieler had 10 sacks in his first 59 NFL games; he has 10 sacks in 17 games since.

The pass rush, overall, was very good.

Even though he missed the finale with a torn ACL, Bradley Chubb’s 11 sacks were tied for 11th most in the league.

Phillips had 6.5 sacks in just eight games before his season-ending Achilles injury. Phillips could be back for the start of the season, but that’s not assured. He mentioned on social media Wednesday that he “walked without a boot for the first time since surgery today well on the road to recovery.”

Chubb could be back in October unless he beats the typical ACL timeline.

Impending free agent Van Ginkel — photographed this week with a boot or some device on his injured foot — had six sacks in the 11 games he started. His agent, Drew Rosenhaus, said he will be fine for the offseason program.

▪ Conclusion: The Dolphins were able to generate a lot of pressure, when healthy, even without blitzing a lot. But I hope that won’t persuade new coordinator Anthony Weaver from blitzing more, especially against quarterbacks who can get rattled against the blitz.

▪ Fact: There’s no bigger offseason decision than what to do with Wilkins. Miami must decide by March 5 whether to place the $19.8 million franchise tag on him. But with the Dolphins $51 million over the cap, they would need to clear out $71 million in space by March 13 to use the tag on him.

A long-term deal would lower his 2024 cap number but could average in the $18 million to $22 million range.

Though general manager Chris Grier reported that Wilkins’ camp thought their offer was fair last summer, SI.com reported that Wilkins felt “lowballed” and intends to play “hardball” with the team and won’t report to camp if he’s given the franchise tag.

“He bet on himself after a summer of negotiations where we made a couple offers and one we felt very good about, was fair, and he and his representation said as much, but we couldn’t close that gap at the end,” Grier said last month. “So he bet on himself and it paid off for him. I’m very happy for him. So we’ll stay in communication and see where this ends up, but he earned the right to be a free agent.”

▪ Conclusion: It’s in everyone’s best interests to do a long-term deal -- from the Dolphins’ perspective, to lower his potential 2023 cap number and avoid long-term acrimony — and for Wilkins, to ensure long-term security.

The Dolphins might be able to find a player with similar impact at slightly less money, but there’s no guarantee of that, and it would be risky.

▪ Fact: Davis, while solid against the run, couldn’t deliver on his offseason expectation of getting to the quarterback more. He had half a sack, giving him two total sacks in 63 NFL games.

His 24 pressures (in 280 pass rushing chances) were 50th most.

Davis said he’s not eager to test the free agent market and hopes to return.

▪ Conclusion: Davis’ eagerness to stay slightly improves his chances of returning, because it leaves the impression he would stay here for similar or perhaps slightly less money. The issue is whether Miami concludes it can upgrade with a cheap alternative.

▪ Fact: Because the top three outside linebackers were solid against the run and very productive as pass rushers before their season-ending injuries, PFF ranked all of them in the top quarter of all NFL edge rushers.

Van Ginkel was rated eighth overall among 116 edge rushers. Chubb was 12th and Phillips 27th. Emmanuel Ogbah, who very likely will be released, was 100th.

When used as pass rushers, David Long Jr. and Jerome Baker had some success. Long had 23 pressures and a sack in 88 pass rush chances. Baker had 11 pressures and 1.5 sacks in 54 chances as a pass rusher.

▪ Conclusion: Former coordinator Vic Fangio should probably have blitzed Baker a bit more than he did; he’s a skilled pass rusher. He had 7.0, 5.5 and 4.0 sacks the previous three seasons in Josh Boyer’s defense. Weaver needs to maximize the pass rushing skills of his linebackers and safeties more than Fangio did.

The view here is there’s no decision to be made on Long, because he has a modest 2024 salary ($4.5 million) and cap hit ($6.7 million).

There is a decision to be made on Baker, who has a high 2024 salary ($10.8 million, none of it guaranteed) and high cap number ($14.9 million). A restructure that would keep Baker wouldn’t be a surprise. The question would be his appetite to take a pay cut if the Dolphins ask.

Miami is better with Baker than without him, but that’s a high number for a team with cap problems.

▪ Fact: Wilkins’ 968 snaps ranked first among defensive tackles. Sieler’s 924 ranked third.

▪ Conclusion: That’s a quality about Wilkins and Sieler that should never be underestimated: their durability, which was essential on a defense plagued by injuries and one that lacked depth at defensive tackle. And it’s issue that Wilkins’ agent, David Mulugheta, can raise in forthcoming negotiations.

We will have more on the front seven in Part 3, including the irksome pass defense issue at linebacker.

Here’s Part 1 with facts and conclusions about Tua Tagovailoa, the running backs, Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.