Conference Championship weekend preview: Will Aaron Rodgers get the better of Tom Brady? Can the Chiefs win without Patrick Mahomes?

NFC Championship game: Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday (24/01), 8.05pm

In week six, the Bucs took apart the Packers, defeating them 38-10 in what was Green Bay’s worst loss of the season. Tampa bullied their opposition, scoring 38 unanswered points after conceding early.

The Packers have not been shut down like that since. Aaron Rodgers has been the best player in the NFL bar none, Davante Adams could well be the league’s premier receiver and the running game fuelled by Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon is tough to slow down. Robert Tonyan has emerged as a high-quality tight end while Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have made key plays, albeit among some mistakes.

Green Bay comfortably defeated the Rams in the Divisional Round, the league’s premier defense, with both sides of the ball playing well. The Packers are favourites to beat Tampa, but the loss in week six provides nagging doubt.

Last season, the Packers were twice routed by the San Francisco 49ers. Once during the regular season and once again in the NFC Championship game. Could the same happen this season?

The Packers are a far stronger team this campaign, having grooved into Matt LaFleur’s intelligent offense. But Sunday’s game will be far from straightforward. They face a perennial winner in Tom Brady, who has exerted control and a winning mentality into a talented team.

Brady will not be fazed by the prospect of playing at Lambeau Field and has plenty of experience of dealing with cold conditions from his time in New England.

Tampa were underdogs against the Saints but delivered a resilient performance to beat their rivals. They were not at their best offensively and were undoubtedly assisted by the mistakes made by Drew Brees.

The Bucs defense looked dynamic, however - and it was the defense that caused Green Bay problems last time around. They forced Rodgers into uncharacteristic mistakes, something he is unlikely to repeat given recent form.

A close encounter awaits between two of the best quarterbacks of all time.

Key match-up: Can the Bucs successfully blitz Rodgers?

In week six, Tampa sacked Rodgers five times and were consistently throwing the kitchen sink at Green Bay’s quarterback. The Packers’ offensive line will need to be stronger, which will be a challenge without David Bakhtiari.

Injury report:

Green Bay: David Bakhtiari (out), AJ Dillon (questionable), Kingsley Keke (questionable), Mason Crosby (expected to play)

Tampa: Antonio Brown (questionable), Ronald Jones (expected to play), Vita Vea (questionable)

AFC Championship game: Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Sunday (24/01), 11.40pm

Will Patrick Mahomes be fit to take the field? While this is not the only question about this game, it is by the far the most important.

If Mahomes plays, the Chiefs will be marginal favourites. If he does not, the Bills will be clear favourites.

Supposing he is unavailable, which is fairly likely given the concussion he sustained, could the reigning champions still win? Chad Henne showed that he had plenty of confidence during his cameo against the Browns. He threw a couple of nice passes, made a key scramble but also threw a dreadful interception.

Before week 17 of this season, when key starters were rested, Henne had not started an NFL game since 2014. It is fair to say he is well-grooved into the role of back-up.

Kansas City’s offense is so geared around the passing game that not having Mahomes would be a huge problem. Andy Reid could opt to run the ball more but that could depend on the availability of rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who is on the mend from injury.

Buffalo have been a dynamic, offensive team all year long but against the Ravens it was their defense that got them over the line. They shut down Lamar Jackon, they will back themselves to halt Henne.

If Mahomes does take the field, there will be questions about his mental state given the nature of his injury. He also suffered a foot injury earlier in the game that could impact his mobility in the pocket.

It is not game over without Mahomes, however. The Chiefs defense stepped up against Cleveland, as it did during their Super Bowl run last year.

Josh Allen will be determined to have a big game in the playoffs, having not matched his regular season form so far.

The extenuating circumstances around this game make it hard to pick, with all eventualities seeming plausible - which is exactly why it is such a fascinating prospect.

Key match-up: Can the Chiefs enact an effective running game?

Without Mahomes, help from the run game will be absolutely vital to their chances. Kansas City will hope Edwards-Helaire will be fit, and that he and Darrell Williams can move the chains. Le’Veon Bell may be called upon too, after minimal usage against Cleveland. Even with a recovering Mahomes, he will need more help from the ground game than usual.

Injury report:

Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes (questionable), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (questionable)

Buffalo: Zack Moss (out), Cole Beasley (expected to play)