Conference winner picks, Big 12 locks and the best bets in Week 5 of college football
Before we get to the best bets in college football for this week, let’s gaze into the future and analyze a few wagers that could pay off big in a few months.
Many stop paying attention to the futures market once games get underway each fall, but that is a mistake. Now is a great time to place futures bets, especially when it comes to conference winners, because unlike the preseason we actually have a decent idea about which teams are contenders and which teams are pretenders.
Some of my favorite to place right now ...
Fresno State (+260) to win Mountain West: I normally try to bet longer odds than this when it comes to futures, but this number is big enough to make this wager worth your while. Fresno State has emerged as the best team in the MWC, and it’s hard for me to envision anyone wrestling a conference title away from it. The Bulldogs are off to a 4-0 start, they have a high-octane offense and they own road victories over Arizona State and Purdue. They might be the nation’s best team from outside the power conferences.
Tulane (+200) to win AAC: This feels like a lock, as long as star quarterback Michael Pratt stays healthy. The Green Wave are the best team in the conference, and their remaining schedule is comically easy. Outside of a road game against Memphis, they should be heavily favored to beat UAB, North Texas, Rice, East Carolina, Tulsa, Florida Atlantic and UTSA. They should sleepwalk to the AAC championship game, where they would likely also be favored against Memphis or SMU.
Texas (-125) to win Big 12: This number feels way too low. The Longhorns are only +165 to go undefeated. Winning the Big 12 should be considerably easier than that. Texas is the class of the Big 12 this season. Even if it stumbles somewhere during the regular season it should still make it to the conference championship game and be a big favorite. At the very least, betting on Texas now will give you some interesting hedge opportunities later with teams like Oklahoma, K-State and TCU.
Washington (+270) to win Pac-12: No team has looked better than the Huskies early on this season. Are we sure USC deserves to be the betting favorite out West?
Now, let’s look to this week and hopefully find some more winners.
Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.
Here are his thoughts on various betting lines and games for Week 5:
Kansas (+17) at Texas
The Jayhawks have beaten the Longhorns in Austin before under Lance Leipold, so there is always a chance that history will repeat itself this weekend. But Texas whipped Kansas 55-14 last year in Lawrence. So it’s hard to know what to expect when these two meet up on Saturday. Pulling off another upset will be quite the challenge for KU. But securing a cover could be a different story. The Jayhawks are good enough to keep this game within two touchdowns. With Oklahoma up next on the schedule for Texas, coach Steve Sarkisian might not have much motivation to beat KU by a large margin.
Missouri (-13.5) at Vanderbilt
The Tigers can back up their 4-0 start to the season with a victory in their first conference game at Vanderbilt. This looks like it could be a long season for the Commodores, who have already lost to UNLV as well as Wake Forest and Kentucky (by more than 13.5).
Best Bets
Last Week: 3-3-1
Season Record: 14-13-1
San Diego State (+9.5) at Air Force: The Falcons have covered this number in eight straight games. I don’t see that changing at home against an Aztecs team that is allowing 5.1 yards per run. Pick: Air Force.
Iowa State (+20.5) at Oklahoma: As much as it pains me to put my hard earned money on Matt Campbell, I’ve got to do it here. This is too many points for the Sooners, especially in a lookahead spot with Texas up next. OU couldn’t cover this number against SMU or Cincinnati earlier this season. The Cyclones are coming off a nice win over Oklahoma State. I think they can compete with OU on the road. Pick: Iowa State.
UAB (+19.5) at Tulane: Willie Fritz is one of the most profitable coaches in the country when it comes to covering the spread at home. With star quarterback Michael Pratt back in the lineup, they should whip a UAB team that has lost three straight by double digits. Pick: Tulane
Clemson (-7.5) at Syracuse: The Orange came close to pulling off an upset at Clemson last season before losing 27-21. Syracuse, which is off to a 4-0 start, seems to have improved sense then. The Tigers, who are 2-2, appear to have gotten worse. The atmosphere inside the dome should be electric on Saturday. Give me the home team with the points. Pick: Syracuse.
Nevada (+23.5) at Fresno State: Fading Nevada has not worked out for me the past two weeks. It should have at Texas State last Saturday, but I digress. Why go back to well? Simple. Fresno State is really, really good. The Bulldogs should be able to cruise in their first conference game of the season. They have covered this number in back-to-back contests. Pick: Fresno State.
Houston (+10) at Texas Tech: It’s time to turn heel on the Red Raiders. This team looks broken and it won’t have quarterback Tyler Shough this week. Texas Tech hasn’t covered a spread against a FBS team this season. Houston is nothing special, but the Cougars are good enough to keep this within double digits. Pick: Houston.
Louisville (-3) at North Carolina State: The Cardinals are off to a 4-0 start and they are looking like a possible contender in the ACC. The Wolfpack are 3-1, but they haven’t looked good in any of their games. NC State is one of the few teams in all of college football that hasn’t successfully covered a spread yet. Pick: Louisville.
Upset Pick of the Week
Cincinnati at BYU (+120): I expect BYU to play in front of a large and noisy crowd when it plays host to its first ever conference game as a Big 12 member on Friday. Cincinnati will have to travel across the country for it on a short week. That seems like a tough assignment for the Bearcats. The Cougars will have a great shot at pulling off the upset.
Other lines worth considering
Georgia (-14.5) at Auburn: The Bulldogs haven’t looked as good as usual this season. It won’t be a surprise if the Tigers can play them close at home. Lean: Auburn.
Indiana (+14) at Maryland: I can’t say I have ever bet money on Maryland before, but I might change that this weekend. The Terrapins have covered this number in all four of their games, while Indiana just needed overtime to beat Akron. Lean: Maryland.
Troy (+1.5) at Georgia State: Troy hasn’t looked as good as expected this season. Georgia State has looked way better than anyone thought they would. Lean: Georgia State.
Utah State (-6) at Connecticut: The Huskies have looked inept on offense this season and the over/under in this game is set at 51.5. Lean: Under.
West Virginia (+11) at TCU: The Horned Frogs have quietly looked great since losing to Colorado in the first game of the season. They could easily cover this number if that continues. Lean: TCU.
