Conflict between FSB and Russian Army brewing as Russia fails on the battlefield, says expert Yakovyna
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Russian dictator Vladimir Putin fears a conflict between Russia’s FSB Federal Security Service and the country’s military is imminent, international relations expert Ivan Yakovyna revealed on Radio NV on Aug. 22.
“In Russia, there isn’t yet panic, of course – let’s not exaggerate – but there is a significant level of concern,” Yakovyna told NV. “The Russian military command is growing increasingly apprehensive as it recognizes that the situation is unfolding in an unfavorable direction for them.”
“Against this backdrop, Vladimir Putin visited Rostov-on-Don this week – or at least, it was shown that he visited there. I’m uncertain about whether it was genuinely him or not. Although I do believe he was present, I’m not inclined to believe he has doubles. He went there and performed a symbolic gesture by entering the headquarters.
“Do you recall when this headquarters was in the news previously? It was during Prigozhin’s capture of it. It was precisely there that Prigozhin sat, interrogating Russian generals, demanding their surrender of Shoigu and Gerasimov to him. Putin needed to step in, assert his presence there and state, ‘This is my territory. I’m in charge here.’
Read also: Russia’s FSB and Ministry of Defense locked in intensifying conflict – Ukrainian intelligence
“And there, I think they told him about how things are happening at the front. Most likely, they exaggerated and didn’t tell the whole truth, as Russian generals often tend to do that. But we already have an idea of the situation at the front, especially from reports by Russian sources, and those reports indicate that things are not going well there.
“In fact, the situation is quite bad. What does that mean? Ukrainian forces have successfully taken back the village of Urozhayne. This gives them the opportunity to keep moving south into the Azov region, and they have two options for their next steps.
“One option is to move towards Mariupol and Volnovakha. The other choice is to head to Berdyansk. By the way, Berdyansk has been hit by heavy shelling multiple times in the last few days. The Russian military bases in Berdyansk are already quite damaged.
“Robotyne has also been liberated. However, fighting is still happening on its southern outskirts. Beyond Robotyne is the town of Tokmak, and after Tokmak comes Melitopol. Basically, this is the same direction that everyone initially thought was really important and strategic. So, why is Ukraine succeeding in their offensive? Well, Ukraine now has new types of weapons, and on top of that, the Russian army is extremely worn out.
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“I would like to say a few words about Western media, which recently, like machine guns, have been firing headlines about how the Ukrainian army is failing, that the offensive is over or hasn’t yielded the necessary results.
“You know, the Western media has done this multiple times before. Right when the invasion started, they were loudly claiming that Kyiv would be taken by the enemy within 72 hours. But how did that turn out? Nothing of the sort happened. They were even quoting sources from the Pentagon and the CIA. Yet, as we all know, Kyiv wasn’t captured. All those talks turned out to be complete nonsense.
“They said the exact same thing about Mariupol when it got surrounded – that Mariupol wouldn’t last more than two days. But guess what? Mariupol actually managed to hold out for a full two months, completely surrounded.
“Before Ukraine’s push into Kherson Oblast last year, everyone was going on about how Ukraine’s progress there had come to a standstill. People were saying that Ukraine was tired out, didn’t have any more soldiers, that the weapons from the West were almost gone, and that the West wouldn’t send more weapons. But you know what happened? Some time passed, and boom – Ukraine advanced first in Kharkiv Oblast and then in Kherson Oblast.
“And now they’re writing the same stuff all over again. Wondering why they keep doing this? From what I gather, their job seems to be painting the darkest, most negative pictures possible. Why? Because if they predict the worst and it doesn’t happen, they can just shrug and say, “Hey, our bad! It’s not that serious after all!” They’re afraid to sound too positive because then people might criticize them if things don’t turn out as rosy as they predicted.
“I’m not worried about looking too hopeful, but they definitely are. That’s the first thing. Second, they have a pretty strange way of judging how successful an advance is. To them, it only counts if they conquer big areas that get freed up. But I have a different take on that.
“I think a successful push should be measured by the number and quality of enemy soldiers and military gear they manage to take out. And in that department, things are looking good. Even high-up Russian military leaders are admitting to their losses. Remember General Ivan Popov, nicknamed Spartak, who got sent off to Syria? He made an audio message where he straight up said, “We’re facing huge losses.”
Read also: Does Putin understand that he has lost? — opinion
“There’s this Russian colonel named Shuvalov who recently came out with a statement like, ‘Our trenches are turning into a bloody mess of killed and wounded, whom no one can even help due to Ukrainians using cluster munitions.’
“Russian media that are relatively unbiased, or when they think no one is listening, say that Russian forces are suffering colossal losses. You know what? The statistics of destroyed military gear also back this up. In Ukraine, way less of their equipment is getting wrecked, often many times fewer than on the other side.
“When you’re moving forward against defenses that are all set up in advance, like minefields and trenches, it’s just natural that progress is going to be slow. But what really counts isn’t just how fast you’re moving, but also how badly you’re hurting the enemy forces. If they are being swiftly annihilated, that’s what I’d call a successful push. But if it’s dragging on, if the other side isn’t losing much, then maybe we shouldn’t see it as such a great success.
“Right now, we’re seeing that Russia’s losses are really big. They’re talking about it openly and complaining quite a bit.
“In my opinion, if this keeps up – after getting through the first and second lines of defense, and since Russia doesn’t have much left in terms of defenses like minefields or strongholds – things will get a lot easier.
“Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that the Russia’s FSB leaders have suggested to Putin that they should quickly get rid of the Chief of the General Staff, Gerasimov, and the defense minister, Shoigu. Some folks from Russian intelligence are pushing for Gerasimov and Shoigu to resign right away.
“According to insiders, the people in the FSB who are in favor of a tougher approach are supporting the leader of the Wagner private military company. This leader is pushing for a change in the top military leadership of Russia.
Read also: Putin prepares to defend his regime by equipping Rosgvardia with tanks — Ukrainian intelligence
“These same sources indicate that ‘hawks’ within the FSB propose ‘to start fighting more aggressively in Ukraine: declare a state of war and full-scale mobilization.’
“The FSB is likely the most informed organization in Russia. They really understand what’s happening inside the country. Their understanding of other countries might not be as spot-on, but they can see that the war isn’t going well and it’s moving towards a defeat.
“They’ve noticed that Shoigu and Gerasimov are struggling in the war, unable to make significant progress. The losses are massive, and there aren’t enough replacements for them. So, they’re saying, ‘We need to act fast, we need to declare a state of war, otherwise everything might be lost.’ And naturally, they’re also saying that Shoigu and Gerasimov should be removed from their positions.
“But here’s the thing: the same Bloomberg report says that the Kremlin doesn’t have any plans to let go of Shoigu and Gerasimov. At least, there’s no hint of that happening anywhere. Why, you ask? Well, if Putin were to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov, it would be like taking away one of the main pillars holding up his power. It’s kind of like chopping off the roots. He’d be left almost by himself, facing the FSB.
“Once upon a time, there was a balancing force – the Wagner Group. But they’ve been taken out of the picture. Now what’s still around is the FSB and the army. If the army loses its strength, the FSB could end up having too much control. Putin doesn’t want that, he fears it.
“So, from what I can gather, there’s a big clash brewing within the Russian command structure. This isn’t just a fight between the army and the “Wagnerites”; it’s also a conflict between the FSB and the army.
“And I believe this will become the most intriguing narrative within Russian politics in the coming weeks and probably months.”
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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine
