Conflict in Ukraine will be Russia's downfall

Apr. 11—Make no mistake, Vladimir Putin will be held accountable for his actions in Ukraine, a former international criminal court prosecutor told a crowd of about 120 in Waynesville Thursday night.

David Crane, a retired member of the Senior Executive Service of the United States and author of "Every Living Thing: Facing Down Terrorists, Warlords and Thugs in West Africa — A Story of Justice," said the Russian president badly misjudged his nation's ability to quickly take over Ukraine.

He expects the United Nations will create special court for Ukraine that will have a mandate to prosecute those who bear the greatest responsibility for the crime of aggression occurring in an act that started Feb.24 and is ongoing. A Ukraine prosecutor general is currently investigating the crimes against his country.

"I expect you will see Vladimar Putin indicted for war crimes, crimes against humanity and crimes against aggression," he predicted. "There's no statute of limitation for international crimes. Whether we have him handed over to a court or not, he's done for politically, militarily and legally."

A war criminal designation means Putin will have no legitimate function as president of a nation and will risk arrest if he leaves Russia.

"We are building a structure to indict and prosecute him. I can assure you that the rule of law is more powerful than the rule of the gun," he said.

With his experience as chief prosecutor for the UN's Special Court for Sierra Leone, Crane was instrumental in putting former Liberian president Charles Taylor behind bars for 50 years. Shortly after the Ukraine invasion, Crane was drawn back into service drafting a U.S. House resolution that recently passed. He also testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee to discuss justice options to prosecute Putin for international crimes.

International order

Following WWII, the United Nations was founded and set up a framework to govern battlefield conduct and passed a universal declaration of human rights, including rules against invading other countries and how the wounded, war prisoners and civilians are to be protected. Targets must be a military necessity and civilians are never to be targeted. Furthermore, there are international symbols that indicate protected places such as hospitals and public facilities and should never be targeted.

Professional armies are required to be trained according to the laws of armed conflict and how they are to be applied in a conflict, he said. Those who violate the laws on armed conflict are committing a war crime,

Evidence of war crimes in Ukraine began to be gathered on the day of the invasion by the Global Accountability Network and other governmental and nongovernmental organizations. Crane founded the Global Accountability Network in 2011. That organization is investigating international crimes in Syria, Yemen, Venezuela, China, and now Ukraine.

So far, actions where civilians and public/humanitarian buildings appear to have been targeted have been found, Crane said. These constitute, among other illegal acts, crimes of aggression, war crimes and crimes against humanity which is a widespread or systematic attack on civilians.

"The UN is the only international body with the legal capability to create a justice mechanism to prosecute Putin and his commanders, " Crane said.

End in sight?

The tension between Ukraine and Russia has been ongoing for years, and from all appearances, there's not a quick resolution.

"Russia, in their own view, thinks they own Crimea and the Donbas region. They've been in a conflict in Ukraine for the past several years. Now Putin has decided he wants to take all of Ukraine," Crane said. "Ukraine wants to be a democratic country and what Vladimir Putin does not want that to happen and is putting Ukraine through is a horror story. As a form military office, I'm shocked at Russia's army. There's nothing to them as a credible armed force. They are a nonprofessional army made up of draftees, leaderless, with no unit cohesion and with low morale.

The question quickly came up in the talk as to what the rest of the world has to do about the situation. Crane believes the best response is to start slowly and ratchet up pressure, hoping Putin understands the action is wildly inappropriate under international law.

One-tenth of the invading force in Russia has been killed and Russian forces are now regrouping in the Donbas region in hopes they can control that area, but peace is not at hand, Crane said.

"Ukraine won't fall unless the Russians start using tactical nuclear weapons," he said. "The Ukrainian people will determine how far to push. The Ukrainian army has the ability to take down Russia as long as NATO gives them the appropriate equipment."

On the international front, political and economic sanctions are slowly tightening the noose around Russia and an investigation has been started that will ultimately be used to indict Putin, he said.

During a question/answer session, Crane was asked if Putin would resort to using nuclear weapons. While Crane said he couldn't accurately speak to the issue, he reflected that he's never seen the world closer to a nuclear exchange, including the Cuban missile crisis, than it is right now.

"We can only hope he's chosen to not end the world," Crane said of Putin. "If NATO begins to engage Russian armed forces, it's possible. That's the reason why we're not in Ukraine. It's a huge cloud over all our heads. My gut says he won't use nuclear weapons, but it's possible. They've put strategic nuclear forces on alert for the first time in history. It's worrisome to be sure."

Another question involved the Iraq War and whether then-President George Bush was a war criminal.

"George Bush did commit the crime of aggression in Iraq," Crane said. "Notice that he does not travel outside the U.S. because he could be arrested. My friend Colin Powell lied to the UN saying there were weapons of mass destruction there, and they were not. He admitted lying later on and was ashamed of it to his dying day. We cooked the books to cause the UN Security Council to authorize the use of force against Iraq because certain individuals in the Bush administration wanted to take down Iraq's leadership. That's not how authorizing the use of force works."

Another questioner wondered how Putin could be dealt with if Russians still support him.

Crane said Putin could rule Russia as he sees fit, but noted academics are fleeing Russia by the thousands and hard times are ahead. "This could cause him serious political problems."

"The Russian economy is done," he said. "It will be 20-plus years before it comes back. I've studied dictators for decades. At the end of the day, I know of no dictator or tyrant who ever retired peacefully. Putin is done internationally. Recently, he was kicked out of the UN human rights council and could be removed from G-20. No leader will work with him. The Russian economy will be out of money within weeks."

Crane urged the audience to take hope that "there are a lot of really smart tough cookies out there working to take him down and prosecute him for his international crimes. A sample indictment was drafted by Crane and published worldwide a few days ago. "We'll get him because the rule of law is more powerful than the rule of the gun."

Crane's talk was hosted by the Haywood County Democratic Party.