Connecticut Democrats block red wave with big wins; polls were correct

A contentious election year that started with high Republican hopes for a huge red wave reversed course and turned into a blue wave in lower Fairfield County as Connecticut Democrats swept every statewide elected office.

The Republican candidates for governor and U.S. Senate — Bob Stefanowski and Leora Levy — both lost by double-digit margins after telling their supporters for months that their own internal data showed the races to be much closer. In the end, the public polls were correct as Gov. Ned Lamont and U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal roared to victory.

Lamont and Blumenthal both led from start to finish in the months-long campaign as they outspent, outhustled, and outmaneuvered their less-experienced opponents who have never held public office.

Among the surprises on election night was the extent of the Democratic victories in once-Republican Fairfield County, especially Greenwich, Darien, and New Canaan. Lamont won all three of those communities, which would have been unthinkable for a Democratic candidate for governor during the 1980s or 1990s.

In a further flipping of Connecticut’s electoral map, while Republican-dominated Fairfield County has now turned Democratic, once-Democratic eastern Connecticut has turned Republican in many towns.

Lamont’s win by 13 percentage points, Democrats said, was even more impressive because it came on a day when the turnout in the cities was lower than expected. That meant that Lamont scored big in the suburbs, including winning in Stefanowski’s hometown of Madison and carrying every shoreline town from Greenwich to Groton with the exception of East Haven.

“I saw a little teeth-gnashing about the urban vote, but I saw something else that I thought was fascinating,’' Lamont told reporters. “It’s fascinating to me that New Canaan and Bridgeport are voting for the same team. Madison, Hartford, Killingworth, Kent, and all these artificial blue-red divisions out there. The suburbs against the cities, labor versus business — I didn’t see that in Connecticut. I saw a state that really came together.’’

Stefanowski predicted during the campaign that his running mate, state Rep. Laura Devlin, would help the ticket in Fairfield County, but they lost in her hometown of Fairfield.

Despite spending four times as much money as he did in 2018, Stefanowski lost by a much wider margin this year in his rematch against Lamont. Stefanowski spent about $2.9 million and lost by three percentage points four years ago. This year, he spent $13 million and lost by 13 percentage points.

Stefanowski said Lamont “won fair and square’' during his concession appearance on the Chaz and AJ radio show.

“The Democrats did a better job at getting the vote out,’' Stefanowski said. “I really thought we were going to win. ... We tried absolutely everything we could.’'

Why Lamont won

Lamont won the election for a wide variety of reasons as many Democrats were energized to vote by concerns about abortion rights, concerns over the fate of democracy, and their ongoing opposition to former President Donald J. Trump.

Both Democrats and Republicans say a key reason was Lamont’s continuing popularity from handling the state’s COVID-19 crisis that required scores of decisions on businesses, restaurants, schools and multiple aspects of daily life.

Lamont’s approval ratings skyrocketed in May 2020 after nearly two months of daily televised briefings and crisis decisions on the pandemic. At that point, 78% of those polled approved of Lamont’s handling of the pandemic, while only 17% disapproved, according to the Quinnipiac University poll. While some conservative critics sharply derided Lamont as “King Ned’' for making unilateral decisions, the polls showed that many voters approved of his actions.

In addition, a series of criticisms by Stefanowski never gained traction. Those included complaints about cost overruns at the state pier in New London, the corruption investigation in West Haven that led to the guilty plea of a Democratic state legislator for stealing about $1.2 million in coronavirus pandemic relief money, questions about Lamont’s wife’s investments, and the ongoing FBI investigation of Lamont’s former deputy budget director, Kosta Diamantis.

State Republican chairman Ben Proto said the issues simply did not resonate with voters statewide.

“The Kosta situation is a very complicated issue and very difficult to explain,’' Proto said in an interview. “Once you leave Greater Groton, no one knows there is such as thing as a state pier. Unless you live in the Groton area, you probably didn’t know it existed. Those are the kind of issues that you need to spend a lot of time and a lot of money pushing — and that’s hard to do in a compressed election cycle.’'

Among many voters, Lamont avoided the blame for the highest inflation rate in the past 40 years, rising gasoline prices, and the often-sluggish state economy, he said.

“They don’t blame the governor. They blame the president,’' Proto said. “They like Ned, but they don’t like Joe [Biden].’'

State Democratic chairwoman Nancy DiNardo said she was “disappointed’' by the low Democratic turnout in the cities, but added that Lamont compensated by touting his strengths as a business entrepreneur and not as a career politician.

“He doesn’t think like a politician, which is an asset,’' DiNardo said.

Attorney General Tong

Besides Lamont and Blumenthal, one of the biggest winners on election night was Attorney General William Tong.

With Blumenthal at 76 years old and Lamont at 68, it is unclear whether they will seek reelection and how long they will remain in their seats.

At 49, Tong represents the next generation of leadership in the state Democratic Party.

“Attorney General Tong is a very strong potential candidate for governor or the U.S. Senate,’' former state Democratic chairman John F. Droney said in an interview. “Very, very strong.’'

On election night, Tong talked about broader concerns that include hot-button, high-profile issues of the Democratic Party, including abortion rights and gun control. He has repeatedly declared that he would immediately go to court if abortion rights are threatened in Connecticut.

“Outside of Connecticut, America is under attack from within,’' Tong told his supporters at a Hartford baseball stadium. “Extremists are undermining elections, making false allegations of fraud, attacking the integrity of the vote. Others are stamping out the rights of women, patients, our brothers and sisters in the LGBTQ+ community. ... But Connecticut must step up and lead. We must show the way for the rest of the country. ... The fall of Roe v. Wade was not the end of this fight. It is just the beginning. And they will come for us. Mitch McConnell, Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham. They’re going to try to pass a national, federal ban on abortion, and if they do, Connecticut will be the first to file a lawsuit to stop them!’'

Standing in front of his parents, Tong credited them with providing him with a solid education that enabled him to obtain a law degree and hold statewide office. They operated a small Chinese takeout on Park Street in Hartford, not far from the state Capitol.

“My parents had this little cradle or bassinet,’' Tong said. “I think it was made out of wicker or bamboo or something. My Dad hung this cradle next to the wok in the kitchen so he could keep an eye on me, and he could rock that cradle while he cooked for hours on end. Because of this great state, our friends, our family, we made the long trip from a hot Chinese restaurant kitchen to the attorney general’s office in just one generation.’'

Greenwich

One of the biggest stunners on election night was the extent of the Democratic victory in once-Republican Fairfield County, especially Greenwich.

Compared to the Republican dominance of 1970 through 2008, the 4th Congressional district has been increasingly trending Democratic since Barack Obama scored a huge victory in 2008 and helped sweep in a newcomer named Jim Himes into Congress. Himes has since solidified the seat, winning every two years.

But the Democratic dominance accelerated in an even broader sweep of all three state House of Representatives seats in Greenwich for the first time in history.

State Rep. Kimberly Fiorello, a conservative firebrand, lost to Democrat Rachel Khanna in the 149th district, a traditional Republican stronghold in the famed “backcountry’' section of Greenwich that includes sections of four-acre zoning and the upscale Conyers Farm development that requires a minimum of 10 acres to build a house.

The 149th seat had been considered so safe that state Rep. Livvy Floren ran unopposed several times because Democrats believed they had no chance in the district.

Democratic state Rep. Stephen Meskers held his seat along the Greenwich shoreline, and Democrat Hector Arzeno stunned political observers by defeating Republican Peter Sherr in the 151st House district that borders Stamford.

Blumenthal

Despite repeated attacks on television by third-party political committees that were not controlled by the candidates, Blumenthal defeated Levy by 15 percentage points — one point above the total predicted by the WTNH average of polls. In the same way, Lamont won by 13 percentage points, and the predicted average was 12 points.

For months, political insiders have said that former House Republican leader Themis Klarides of Madison would have been a better general-election candidate than Levy because Klarides held more moderate views by favoring abortion rights, gay rights and gun control.

“Themis would have given Dick Blumenthal a better run, but still wouldn’t have beaten him,’' Droney said in an interview.

Droney described Levy as “about as far right as you can be without falling off the edge of the world.’'

Levy appeared on the right-leaning Newsmax television channel, which some viewers watch because they believe that the Fox News Channel is too moderate. Those appearances did not help with general election voters who often avoid watching the channel, said Gary Rose, a longtime political science professor at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield.

The Newsmax viewers are “the same ones that voted for her in the primary,’' Rose said. “It’s a faction within a faction.’'

Proto, the Republican state chairman, said voters will never know what could have happened in the general election.

“I’ve heard that Themis would have been a better candidate, but the reality is she wasn’t a better candidate in August to the people who mattered in August,’' Proto said of the primary. “Would she have been a better candidate? We’ll never know that. Would she have done better than Leora? Don’t know. ... Your strength in a primary often becomes your weakness in the general, and your weaknesses in the primary often become your strength in the general.’'

Regarding the future, some Republicans are already looking toward a potential rematch between former state senator George Logan of Meriden against U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes of Wolcott in the 5th Congressional district. Logan scored better than any Republican on the statewide ticket, losing to Hayes by 1,842 votes in a race that avoided a recount.

But Proto, an astute student of politics who has been involved in campaigns for decades, would not predict whether Logan will launch a rematch in 2024.

“I’ve learned to assume nothing in politics,’' Proto said.

What’s next?

With a new mandate for his agenda, Lamont said that he will renew his focus on economic development and immediately study whether he can extend the gasoline tax cut that is scheduled to expire on Dec. 1. Since April, gasoline prices have been reduced by 25 cents per gallon because the excise tax has been suspended.

The issue, however, is how much money the state has to continue the tax cut and how long it would last. If nothing is done, then gasoline prices would increase by 25 cents per gallon on Dec. 1.

With the state budget surplus hitting record-breaking levels, Connecticut legislators voted unanimously in March to temporarily suspend the tax as of April 1 because already rising prices had skyrocketed even further after Russia invaded Ukraine.

The tax-cutting action was taken in an election year when the average price was $4.32 per gallon. Prices have dipped since then, but they are still volatile and subject to further increases.

In addition, Lamont will continue with the economic policies that led to large budget surpluses created due to the bipartisan budget agreement of 2017 that instituted spending and bonding caps. A new “volatility’' cap ensured that the legislature could not spend extra money in capital gains taxes from a booming stock market in 2021 that has cooled considerably in 2022.

“Connecticut has put its fiscal house in order, and to ensure the progress we have made continues, I will be proposing as part of my budget next session an extension of the financial guardrails, secured by bond covenants, to maintain our strong financial position,’' Lamont said. “Extending these protections will send a strong signal to businesses, investors, credit rating agencies, and the public at large that Connecticut is serious about living within our means and saving for the future.

Once the smoke cleared and far more than $50 million was spent statewide, the state is already returning to normal aspects of daily life.

After stepping off the stage following his victory speech, Lamont noted that the long campaign had finally ended.

“The ads are over,’' Lamont said. “Hallelujah!’'

Christopher Keating can be reached at ckeating@courant.com