Conservative leadership: Who could replace Theresa May as Tory leader if she loses no confidence vote?

Theresa May will face a vote of no confidence after 48 Conservative MPs submitted letters triggering a leadership contest.

The prime minister vowed to “contest the vote with everything I’ve got” when it takes place on Wednesday evening.

Possible contenders to replace her were quick to offer their backing, with leader of the Commons, Andrea Leadsom, tweeting it was “vital to support” the prime minister and foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt warning that a leadership contest would be “damaging” for the country.

But who might be the frontrunners in any future contest?

Theresa May

The incumbent prime minister has vowed to fight to remain as leader, insisting she would stay on to “finish the job”.

Needing the votes of 158 MPs – half the parliamentary party plus one, she is currently 2/7 to win the vote, according to the Ladbrokes bookmaker. However, a vote of 100 or more against her will raise questions about whether she can continue.

If she wins, another challenge against her cannot be mounted for at least a year.

Immediate statements of loyalty were issued by cabinet ministers, including Sajid Javid, Michael Gove, Philip Hammond, Matt Hancock, Penny Mordaunt, Liam Fox, Steve Barclay, David Lidington, Amber Rudd, Chris Grayling, David Gauke and James Brokenshire.

Boris Johnson

Prominent Brexiteer and former foreign secretary Boris Johnson (joint favourite at 5-1 with Ladbrokes) is a leading voice of opposition to Ms May’s Brexit plan.

The Old Etonian was one of the key players in the 2017 Leave campaign and resigned from the cabinet following the summit of cabinet members in July at Chequers – the prime minister’s country residence.

That agreement would see the UK agreeing a “common rulebook” with the European Union (EU) for trading in goods, in an attempt to maintain frictionless trade at the border.

Heavily tipped as a successor to David Cameron, Mr Johnson ruled himself out of the 2016 leadership contest after Michael Gove made a last-minute bid for the top job.

Mr Johnson refused to rule out challenging Ms May over the weekend, saying the British people should not “underestimate the deep sense of personal responsibility I feel for Brexit”.

Dominic Raab

Former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab (joint favourite with Boris Johnson at 5-1 with Ladbrokes) has refused to rule out standing in a leadership contest.

The prominent Leave-backer was appointed as Brexit secretary in July but resigned from the role in November, saying he could not support the prime minister’s deal.

The 44-year-old has been the MP for Esher and Walton since he was elected in 2010.

The son of a Czech-born Jewish father who came to Britain in 1938, he is married with two children.

Sajid Javid

The home secretary announced he was backing the prime minister to remain in post shortly after the no confidence vote was announced.

He said a leadership contest was the “last thing our country needs right now”.

But an earlier interview with The Spectator prompted rumours of leadership ambitions after he made a pitch for the Tories to be the party of social mobility.

On Wednesday he said he was backing Ms May in the contest but could still throw his hat in the ring if she loses the first vote.

The odds on Mr Javid taking the top job are currently 8/1, according to Ladbrokes. He didn’t stand in the 2016 leadership race but has since emerged as one of the favourites in Westminster to succeed Ms May.

Mr Javid, 49, backed Remain in the referendum but has since positioned himself as a firm Leaver.

He became the first home secretary from an ethnic minority background when he was appointed in April 2018.

The son of a Pakistani bus driver from Rochdale, he was managing director at Deutsche Bank before becoming an MP in 2010. He is married with four children.

Michael Gove

Michael Gove (third at 7-1 with Ladbrokes) appeared to rule himself out of the running in recent days.

The environment secretary said it was “extremely unlikely” that he would stand as a future Conservative Party leader.

That apparent reluctance could have something to do with his previous bruising experience in a Tory leadership race.

In June 2016, Mr Gove, who was campaign manager for Mr Johnson’s failed drive to succeed Mr Cameron, withdrew his support on the morning that Mr Johnson was due to declare and threw his own hat in the ring instead.

He came third in the first round of voting, trailing behind ultimate winner Ms May and Ms Leadsom.

Mr Gove, 51, was born in Edinburgh, studied English at Oxford and was a journalist before becoming an MP. He is married to Daily Mail columnist Sarah Vine.

Jeremy Hunt

Moments after news of the vote was announced, Mr Hunt tweeted: “I am backing Theresa May tonight. Being PM most difficult job imaginable right now and the last thing the country needs is a damaging and long leadership contest.

“Brexit was never going to be easy but she is the best person to make sure we actually leave the EU on March 29.”

But the foreign secretary – formerly the longest-serving health secretary until he was switched from the role earlier this year – is seen as a possible contender, helped in part by the relative success he has enjoyed in the new role, including coordinating the release of British PHD student Matthew Hedges.

David Davis

The ardent leaver and former Brexit secretary quit Ms May’s cabinet in protest at her Chequer’s proposal and could certainly command support from Leave-backing colleagues.

He has repeatedly said he is not interested in the top job but is seen as a contender given his high profile role in the 2016 referendum campaign and subsequent support for a harder Brexit.

Commenting before Ms May pulled the Commons vote on her Withdrawal Agreement, he said: “The decisions taken in the next few months will dictate our nation’s future for a generation. We will be judged in the future as to whether we flinched in the face of unfounded threats and panic, or stood up for our national interest and took our proper place in the world.”

Amber Rudd

The work and pensions secretary critiqued Ms May’s leadership style by saying the PM was “not always forthcoming” about what she wants in an interview with The Times at the weekend.

She is seen as a leading candidate from the moderate wing of the party and even said in her interview that she hoped it chooses a “centrist” figure for its next leader.

She has also made clear her support for the UK moving to a Norway-style option if Ms May’s plan is rejected by MPs and said she would vote to stay in the EU if there was another referendum.

But the pensions secretary called on Conservative colleagues to back the prime minister’s proposals, saying it is “too indulgent” to think about leadership contests at this point.

​Jacob Rees-Mogg

Prominent Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has been calling for Ms May to be replaced in recent weeks, handed in his letter calling for a no confidence vote in November.

He tweeted: “The country needs a new leader, it is time for Mrs May to resign.’’

While Mr Rees-Mogg is an outside contender, he would likely have the support of arch-Brexiteers.

However a successful bid by the 49-year-old son of former Times editor William Rees-Mogg has the potential to split the Tory party in two.

Others to watch

• Penny Mordaunt: The international development secretary has declared her “full support” for the prime minister, but there is speculation she could enter the race if Ms May loses the no confidence vote.

• Esther McVey: The former work and pensions secretary has refused to rule herself out of any future race, having previously said she believed it would be “very difficult” for Ms May to remain PM if she failed to renegotiate her Brexit deal.

• Gavin Williamson: The defence secretary and former chief whip has been particularly vocal in his demands for more cash for his department, sparking rumours this summer that he was poised to topple Ms May if spending on the armed forces was not increased.

Additional reporting by PA