Control of the Minnesota Legislature will be decided in the ‘burbs, on the Range, in midsize cities

Christopher Magan, Pioneer Press
·7 min read
1
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

Roughly 10 percent of the races for the Minnesota House and Senate will decide which party controls each chamber of the state Legislature — voting patterns that have held true for more than a decade.

That means Republicans and Democrats are scrambling for advantage in about two dozen of the 201 legislative seats up for election this year. Further complicating the political calculus, Minnesota has redrawn legislative districts after the 2020 U.S. Census.

A Pioneer Press analysis of a decade of voting data as well as independent examinations of voters’ past party preferences show the battle for the state’s political future will be won and lost in the suburbs, on the Iron Range and in a handful of midsize cities.

Currently, Republicans have a slim majority in the Senate and Democrats hold a small majority in the House. Leaders of both parties are brimming with confidence they will prevail Nov. 8.

“We’re going to pick up a number of seats in the suburbs this year,” said Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. He noted that voters support DFLers’ positions on abortion rights, education funding and the economy.

“Democrats are particularly strong on those issues,” Martin said.

Martin added that Democrats also expect to do well in midsize cities like St. Cloud and Rochester while holding their own in working-class northern Minnesota.

David Hann, chair of the Republican Party, thinks Martin has it all wrong. He says public safety, the economy, education and environmental regulations are driving voters to Republicans.

Hann expects the GOP to flip suburban districts and dominate on the Iron Range as well as in more rural parts of the state.

“It has become pretty clear in the past few years Democrats have abandoned the common man,” Hann said. “They represent an elite that is wealthy and isolated from the kinds of ordinary problems most of us face.”

Read more about candidates seeking office: twincities.com/news/politics/elections

Court drawn districts

For the better part of 50 years, Minnesota’s legislative districts have been drawn by state courts. The result has been districts that are more competitive than most other states without the gerrymandering often seen when partisans draw the maps.

The courts focus on several criteria when drawing maps to ensure districts are compact, contiguous and tend to group together communities of common interest.

Yet, just because Minnesota’s maps are drawn independently doesn’t make them perfect, said David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University. The court has focused on marginal changes in districts, which means the new boundaries may not fully consider areas changing demographics, Schultz said.

“I’m concerned that these district lines may not be giving people of color full range of opportunity for representation,” he said. “The court hasn’t done as good of a job maximizing the number of seats that would be competitive for people of color.”

Schultz admits that drawing fair and competitive districts can be quite challenging, both in the Twin Cities metro, which is heavily DFL, and in reliably Republican Greater Minnesota.

That’s because Democrats and Republicans have largely sorted themselves into cities or less populous areas. What is changing is how education and affluence impact voters’ decisions.

“Working-class people without a college education are increasingly voting Republican,” Schultz notes, while college-educated, more affluent voters are trending toward Democrats. That’s a big shift from what was seen historically in Minnesota and across the U.S.

“Demographics are not destiny,” Schultz says about voters’ backgrounds, “they are possibility.”

Battlegrounds

Marginally different maps and a lot of reliable voting blocks mean that control of the next Minnesota Legislature likely will be decided by about two dozen races.

Predicting which ones will be close is tough, an educated guess at best, but that doesn’t mean folks don’t try.

Political parties, outside experts and journalists look to past voting patterns to try to predict which races will be close. One thing is clear from the data: Certain regions may be competitive year after year, but not necessarily specific districts.

Steven Schier, a retired Carlton College political science professor, says that’s due to a number of variables including population change, candidate quality and the popularity of incumbents.

“These swing areas are not deep red or deep blue,” Schier said. “They determine the direction of state politics and they oscillate back and forth. When you are thinking about the state Legislature, you are talking about a bouncing ball.”

Schier says the most detailed analysis of the state’s legislative races is done by a group called “cnalysis” which forecasts each state’s races.

Here are the key places to watch:

Iron Range: If Republicans can win House and Senate seats, particularly in the Arrowhead region that had leaned Democratic just a few elections ago, it will represent a political transformation for the area.

Those Senate districts and their corresponding House seats are competitive and in a part of the state Republicans’ message on environmental regulations and the economy has resonated in recent years. Democrats would have to win these seats for a chance at a Senate majority.

Midsize cities: Places like Rochester, Mankato and St. Cloud also have been close in recent elections. Democrats expect to make gains in those regions as they grow in population and become more diverse. Republicans believe their message on education and crime can pull voters to their side.

Suburbs: This is likely where control of the House will be won or lost. Democrats are counting on women to turn out after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling overturning the right to abortion.

Republicans have downplayed the issue, noting that in Minnesota the state Supreme Court ruled abortion is a right under the state Constitution. Instead, GOP candidates have expounded on the economy, crime and education, but DFLers say they’re confident voters trust them more with those issues.

Schier and Schultz think outer-ring suburbs in Anoka and Dakota counties will have some of the most competitive races of the election.

“The suburbs are where the action is,” Schultz says has been the conventional political wisdom. “It’s what suburban women do. If they turn out, Democrats win. If they don’t, Republicans win.”

However, Schultz acknowledged that crime and the economy have gotten more attention in recent weeks, which could help Republicans across the state.

Coattails, ticket-splitters

Another thing at play this election is who is at the top of the ticket. Not only are all 201 House and Senate seats up for election, all the statewide offices are, too: governor, attorney general, secretary of state and state auditor.

The popularity of candidates at the top of the ballot can motivate voters to turnout and vote for other like-minded candidates.

Or not. Minnesota voters also have a proud history of splitting their ticket — picking one party for statewide office and another for their local representatives.

DFLers are hopeful incumbent Tim Walz will do well against doctor and former state Sen. Scott Jensen, who rose to national prominence questioning the government response to the COVID-19 pandemic. If Walz wins by a wide margin it could help other Democrats.

“It is alarming to me that people who hold some of the most extreme viewpoints, some of these wild conspiracy theories they’ve glommed onto, are nominees for a major party in this state,” DFL chair Martin said. “And that they’re competing, I think that is what’s most shocking.”

GOP chair Hann rejects the contention that Republicans have nominated candidates outside of the political mainstream. He also doesn’t believe candidates like Jensen or Kim Crockett, who is running against incumbent Steve Simon for secretary of state while questioning the outcome of the 2020 election, will have a negative impact on other contests.

“My sense is that legislative races are very local and in many cases are driven by what local people know about the candidate,” Hann said. “In many cases these are people who are very well known in their communities. (Voters) tend to elect people who they think represent their values and who they trust.”

Related Articles