Who will control the U.S. House in 2025? These 10 California congressional races could decide

The race for control of the House of Representatives in 2025 is a toss-up, analysts say, with 10 California contests likely to figure significantly in the final outcome.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections and Elections Daily rank districts by partisan advantage. Forecasters rate close elections as “toss-up,” “leaning” or “likely” to go for a Democrat or Republican. Projections continue to shift — and did after Republicans picked a new House Speaker on Oct. 25.

Prospective candidates still have until mid-December to file for candidacy.

California had some of the nation’s closest House races in 2022, lifting Republicans to a slim majority and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, into the speaker’s chair in January. Nine months later, all Democrats joined eight GOP hardliners to vote him out, leading to several weeks of Republican infighting to select a successor. They settled on little-known Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson, a staunchly conservative supporter of former President Donald Trump.

How Johnson’s speakership will affect 2024 elections is yet to be seen. Regardless, these are 10 California races to watch, along with how much money candidates reported in their third-quarter Federal Election Commission filings at the end of September:

Likely Republican

3rd Congressional District

Most analysts believe Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Rocklin, will keep his seat, representing a district stretches from the northern Sierra Nevada along the Nevada border into Death Valley.

The freshman reported more than $1.5 million in the bank as of Sept. 30. Democrat Jessica Morse, who has worked in wildfire prevention, had about a third of that, close to $501,000. She fundraised well while running against Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, in 2018 but lost by an 8% margin.

Another Democrat, businessman Douglas Huhn, did not report any campaign cash for that period.

40th Congressional District

Rep. Young Kim, R-La Habra, will likely win in 2024, forecasters concur. The 40th holds parts of Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside counties.

She reported more than $2.2 million in reserve. Two Democrats had cash to run against her. Joe Kerr, a retired Orange County fire captain, disclosed almost $413,000. Allyson Damikolas, a Tustin school board trustee, had over $167,000.

Leans Republican

41st Congressional District

Most experts give Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, a slight advantage in the 41st. The Cook Political Report rates the Riverside County district a toss-up.

Calvert had his closest House race in over a decade in 2022, edging out Democrat Will Rollins by less than 4 percentage points. Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, is in for a 2024 rematch.

Calvert disclosed close to $2 million. Rollins, just under $1.5 million. Two other Democrats trailed by large margins.

45th Congressional District

Rep. Michelle Park Steel, R-Seal Beach, will edge out an opponent in the 45th, forecasters seem to agree. The 45th takes in parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties.

She showed almost $2.4 million in the bank. So far she has five Democratic challengers, but none who had more than $150,000 on hand at the end of September.

Toss-up

13th Congressional District

This was home to the nation’s second-closest House race in 2022, where Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, beat former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, by fewer than 600 votes. Gray is running again so another tight race is expected.

The district, which holds all of Merced County and chunks of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties, voted for President Joe Biden over Donald Trump in 2020 by 11 percentage points. It has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

There are many challengers in the 13th but Duarte and Gray lead financially. Duarte reported over $1.2 million, Gray more than $197,000.

22nd Congressional District

After the ouster of McCarthy, Rep. David Valadao’s mentor and patron, most analysts rate the race in the 22nd as a toss-up.

Valadao, R-Hanford, faces a rematch with former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield. Valadao beat him by a 3% margin in 2022.

The 22nd, which has more Democrats than Republicans and picked Biden by 13 points in 2020, includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties. Valadao has survived tough elections in that area before, having lost and regained his House seat by slim margins in 2018 and 2020.

State Sen. Melissa Hurtado, D-Fresno, and pro-Trump conservative Chris Mathys are also competing for the seat.

The congressman reported nearly $1.2 million, Salas almost $158,000. Hurtado had over $33,000. Mathys, $500.

27th Congressional District

Most experts see a toss-up in this northern Los Angeles County district. Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, faces Democrat George Whitesides, former CEO of Virgin Galactic and NASA chief of staff under President Barack Obama.

Garcia led in fundraising but Whitesides had more cash on hand after lending to his campaign, with over $1.7 million. Garcia had under $1.6 million.

Leans Democratic

47th Congressional District

Forecasters are divided on who has the advantage in the Orange County district that Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, is leaving to run for the Senate. Porter is among a handful of House Democrats running to succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

At least a dozen candidates are running in the 47th. Scott Baugh, an attorney and Republican Assemblyman from 1995 to 2000, showed the most cash on hand with almost $1.4 million. He ran against Porter in 2022 and lost by just over 3 percentage points.

Two Democrats led financially at the end of September. State Sen. Dave Min, D-Irvine, reported nearly $826,000. He was sentenced to three years probation in August after being arrested in May for driving under the influence. Joanna Weiss, an attorney who founded a progressive voter education organization, showed nearly $833,000.

Likely Democratic

9th Congressional District

Three of the forecasting organizations think that the Stockton-anchored district held by Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, is likely rather than safely Democratic.

Harder had almost $2.3 million on hand. The leading Republican challenger, Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, reported about $186,000. Republican John McBride, a strength and conditioning coach, had $3,404.

49th Congressional District

The consensus is that Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, will likely have the upper hand. The 49th covers northern coastal areas of San Diego County and has drawn four GOP candidates.

Levin reported under $1.1 million. Republicans with the most cash in reserve were Margarita Wilkinson, a media executive who had almost $882,000, and Matt Gunderson, a business owner who had almost $790,000. Both lent to their campaigns.