Cook Political shifts SC governor’s race away from ‘solidly Republican.’ Here’s why

With former Congressman Joe Cunningham’s entry this week into the South Carolina Governor’s race, the Cook Political Report, a newsletter that forecasts possible outcomes in federal and statewide elections, has shifted their projections for the race.

The report, written by Cook’s Jessica Taylor, shifted the race expectation from “solidly Republican” to “likely Republican,” moving the needle sightly in Cunningham’s favor.

Cunningham, like any Democrat running in a statewide race in South Carolina, faces tough odds.

He’s running against an incumbent, S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster, who bested his last Democratic challenger, James Smith, by about eight percentage points in 2018.

Democrats were dealt another blow in 2020 when their best funded candidate in years, Jaime Harrison, was defeated by U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham by an even wider margin: about 10 percentage points. About a month before the race, Cook Political Report rated it a “toss up” as both candidates shattered fundraising records.

Cook acknowledged the struggle Cunningham is about to face in the race, assuming he wins the Democratic Party nomination. So far only one other Democrat, activist Gary Votour, has said he’s running, but other Democrats are expected to enter the race.

“It won’t be an easy feat in the least — the last time the Palmetto State elected a Democratic governor was 1998, and the last time a Democrat won statewide was 2006,” the report read.

The report pointed to his stunning 2018 win, where he wrestled South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District away from Republicans for the first time in almost four decades by a margin of about 4,000 votes. Cook called the win “one of the biggest upsets on Election Night.” Last November, Cunningham lost that seat to Republican Nancy Mace by a slim margin of about 5,000 votes.

Cook was also quick to point out Cunningham’s recent cash haul. The Charleston Democrat announced Wednesday that within 48 hours after announcing his run, his campaign raised $400,000, more than McMaster raised in three months. However, the state saw with Harrison’s run that a Democrat flush with cash is far from a guaranteed win in a statewide race. And McMaster still closed out the first quarter with $1 million cash on hand after raising $380,000.

“Cunningham is a good retail politician and comes across incredibly well on TV, but that combination along with a hefty bank account often isn’t enough in South Carolina — just ask now-DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison who finished 10 points behind Sen. Lindsey Graham last fall despite spending more than $130 million,” Cook Political wrote.

Cook Political also pointed to Cunningham’s attempts to be less partisan than some of his Democratic counterparts. During his time in office, Cunningham touted a “Lowcountry before party” philosophy, and was known to vote against the majority of his party on a number of issues, including voting against Nancy Pelosi as speaker in 2019.