Cooler, average temperatures coming to SWFL, winter conditions likely over

Rain and cooler temperatures are in the forecast for this week as one of the last appreciable cold fronts of the season works its way across Southwest Florida.

"Tuesday the air will be cooler, but (the cold front) really stops around the Tampa Bay area," said Rodney Wynn, a meteorologist and hurricane specialist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin, which covers the Fort Myers-Cape Coral area. "It won't be in the 90s, so it will feel a little cooler."

Relatively hot, muggy conditions have dominated weather in Southwest Florida the past few weeks.

Overall, this winter has been rather mild, with only a handful of strong fronts making their way through the region.

"For Lee County, the high Tuesday will be between 78 and 82 degrees," Wynn said. "Wednesday it will be a little cooler at 76 degrees for a high, but then we're back up into the mid-80s by Thursday. So it's a couple of degrees below what it has been."

How cool could it get here?

Rain chances will range from 30% to 60% Monday and Tuesday, and then a second front could provide much-needed rain over the weekend.

Wynn said the average temperatures for a March 14 in Fort Myers are 59 degrees for a low and 81 degrees for a high.

"Wednesday night into Thursday morning it will be around 53 degrees near the coast and about 50 degrees inland and then we start to moderate to above-normal temperatures again," Wynn said.

Although the weather may not end up feeling "cold," the term cold front refers to a low-pressure front that works its ways off the mainland and toward the Sunshine State during the winter and spring months.

"We like to say it's a cool down, but the cool downs over the past month have really brought us close to normal," he said.

After the rain, will things heat up again?

Much of this winter's weather has been dominated by ridges of high pressure, which have sat over the Sunshine State and kept cool weather to the north, on the mainland United States.

Naples will see similar conditions, according to Chris Fisher, a meteorologist with NWS in Miami, which covers the Naples-Marco Island area.

"We will have a couple of days of slightly below normal temperatures, but nothing earthshattering," Fisher said. "We're looking at highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the lower to mid 50s. then we warm up again by the end of the week."

Fisher said there is a slight chance of severe thunderstorms and even hail Monday night.

He said Southwest Florida will see regular low-pressure systems coming from the mainland, but that strong cold fronts are likely finished for this winter.

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"We'll probably get a few more through March and April," Fisher said. "We won't get many that give us a real significant cool-down but this time of year it's not uncommon to get one or two fronts a week to give us some rain and drop the humidity a little bit."

After this week, warm, dry conditions are expected to be back in place.

Hotter-than-average temperatures are expected for Southwest Florida over the next three months, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.

Wynn said he thinks the serious cold fronts are through for the 2022-23 winter.

"I think we're done with temperatures below 50 degrees," Wynn said.

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This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Cold front could bring severe weather, hail to Southwest Florida