Coronavirus deaths in South Carolina could quadruple to 2,800 by October, model says

Mitchell Willetts
·2 min read

The Palmetto State could see a serious surge in coronavirus cases and deaths heading into the fall, with an estimated 2,853 COVID-19 fatalities by Oct. 1, according to a predictive computer model from the University of Washington.

The model has grim projections for the U.S. as a whole, predicting more than 201,000 deaths nationwide by that same date.

Experts behind the model, which is used by the White House, say coronavirus activity is expected to increase largely because governments and people are relaxing precautions such as social distancing, McClatchy News reported.

South Carolina has been setting record highs for coronavirus case counts in June, over a month after the state began reopening. The rising numbers have health officials worried, according to McClatchy News.

“I have to say that today, I am more concerned about COVID-19 in South Carolina than I ever have been before,” state epidemiologist Linda Bell said June 10.

South Carolinians are going back out to bars, restaurants and businesses faster than almost every other state, according to McClatchy.

“Increased mobility and premature relaxation of social distancing led to more infections, and we see it in Florida, Arizona, and other states,” Ali Mokdad, who helped create the model, told CNN. “This means more projected deaths.”

Leading up to Oct. 1, the model anticipates there will be about 25 deaths per day in South Carolina as a result of COVID-19.

While this model is influential among health experts and government officials, it has been wrong before.

Earlier data provided in March predicted South Carolina would have suffered roughly 1,000 fatalities by June. But as of June 16, the official death count sits at 607, according to the Department of Health and Environmental Control.

It’s worth noting that shortly after those predictions were made, Gov. Henry McMaster implemented a statewide “home or work” order on April 6, which stayed in place until May 4.

Aaron McKethan, CEO of health data science company NoviSci and a member of a team doing coronavirus modeling in North Carolina, defended predictive models and their use. While they may not always be completely spot on, they are a safer bet than the alternatives, he told McClatchy News.

“People are going to decide ... based on their gut or their Twitter feed or their sister’s boyfriend’s blog,” McKethan said. “Models are better than those things, if handled with humility.”