Coronavirus and flu could jam hospitals over holidays, scientists warn
Though coronavirus cases are declining throughout Virginia, public health officials worry the high level this month could create a bigger springboard for a holiday surge than last year.
The caseload entering this October was three times larger than in October 2020, according to a recent analysis by infectious disease modelers at the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute. With 2.7 million Virginians still completely unvaccinated, there’s enough opportunity for a repeat of last year’s wave.
Beyond COVID-19, health officials are concerned the flu season could add more stress to hospitals. Though a so-called “twindemic” never happened last year, it could this season. Experts say it’s unlikely Virginians will match the record flu vaccination numbers of 2020, and fewer lockdown restrictions and prevention measures may make it easier for either virus to spread.
A severe flu could tip hospitalizations over the edge to exceed last January’s peak, according to the university analysis.
The number of Virginians hospitalized for confirmed or suspected COVID-19 was 1,474 as of Friday, a 30% decrease from two weeks ago. More than one in four were in an intensive care unit, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association. Of those critical patients, 63% were on ventilators.
Statewide, 7.5% of standard nasal swab tests came back positive last week, according to Virginia Department of Health data, and close to 2,200 new cases are being diagnosed each day, about 1,000 fewer than were reported daily two weeks ago.
Confirmed cases have risen to at least 673,000 in the state, with 13,391 suspected deaths.
Eighty-one of those fatalities were reported from Hampton Roads last week. Though they appear to be climbing, epidemiologists say that’s likely because deaths are a lagging indicator during a pandemic. Death reports frequently come after hospitalizations, but some are delayed weeks because of death certificate reviews.
The following localities reported deaths: 17 in Hampton; 16 in Virginia Beach; 11 in Norfolk; eight in Chesapeake; seven in Gloucester County; five each in Newport News and Portsmouth; four in York County; two in James City County; and one each in Franklin, Poquoson and Suffolk and Accomack, Isle of Wight and Middlesex counties.
About 5.3 million Virginians are fully vaccinated — 62% of the population. Some residents are now receiving third doses of either Pfizer or Moderna if they have weakened immune systems or Pfizer boosters if they’re in certain high-risk categories. So far, 286,000 more shots have been given to fully vaccinated people by the state, health care providers and pharmacies, according to the health department.
A Food and Drug Administration advisory panel also has recommended boosters for Moderna recipients using the same approach. But Friday, the group backed boosters for anyone who received the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which is authorized for people 18 and older. The FDA will use the recommendations to decide whether to authorize boosters for the other two COVID-19 vaccines.
Unvaccinated people have made up the vast majority of the state’s serious illnesses.
Though so-called “breakthrough cases,” infections in fully vaccinated individuals, are happening more often, they are still considered uncommon. There have been 34,691 cases statewide, with 381 ending in death.
Some 44.8 million infections have been reported throughout the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University, and 722,000 Americans have died. About 240 million people have had confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide, with 4.9 million deaths.
Back in the region, Virginia Beach’s caseload continues to be the highest, with 597 new infections.
Large caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but some communities with fewer people see greater rates of new cases per capita. For last week, Franklin ranked the highest in the region again based on population size, at 43 per 100,000 people. By comparison, Virginia Beach had 19 and Norfolk had 20.
Here’s a look at vaccination rates throughout the region. These figures do not include the 613,000 doses administered to Virginians by the federal government, such as military, because location information has not been provided for them:
In Virginia Beach, 69% of adults and 58% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 53% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Norfolk, 54% of adults and 47% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 41% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Newport News, 65% of adults and 53% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 47% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Chesapeake, 68% of adults and 56% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 50% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Portsmouth, 60% of adults and 49% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 43% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Hampton, 64% of adults and 54% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 48% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In James City County, 80% of adults and 68% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 62% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Poquoson, 77% of adults and 64% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 58% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In York County, 72% of adults and 60% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 54% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Suffolk, 67% of adults and 56% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 50% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Williamsburg, 58% of adults and 53% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 48% of all residents are fully inoculated.
For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus.
For more information on where to find vaccines, visit vaccinate.virginia.gov or www.vaccines.gov. For phone assistance, call 1-877-VAX-IN-VA.
Elisha Sauers, 757-839-4754, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com
