US death projection doubles in leading model as Dr Fauci warns against opening too soon
The number of Americans projected to die from coronavirus has almost doubled in a leading model, as the country's top infectious disease expert warned against easing social distancing measures too soon.
Nearly 135,000 Americans are forecast to die from Covid-19 by the beginning of August in a new projection by the University of Washington, almost double the last prediction, due to several US states easing their lockdowns.
The model by the university's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE), which the White House has heavily relied on to guide its decision-making, is now estimating that the US will reach 135,000 deaths by August 1 compared to its previous estimate of 60,308 deaths.
The IHME's grim new forecasts “reflect the effect of premature relaxation of restrictions,” according to the model's creator, Christopher Murray.
It comes as Dr Anthony Fauci, America's top infectious disease expert and a lead figure in the White House coronavirus task force, warned that prematurely reopening the country may lead to a rebound of the virus and a spike in cases.
In the past two weeks, several US states have introduced plans for phased reopenings amid mounting pressure from protesters who have grown frustrated at the heavy toll the lockdowns have taken. Some 31 states will ease social distancing measures by May 11.
"It's the balance of something that's a very difficult choice," Dr Fauci told CNN. "How many deaths and how much suffering are you willing to accept to get back to what you want to be some form of normality, sooner rather than later?"
Dr Fauci also warned that states reopening could be "inviting a rebound". "And rebound is going to give you spikes and spikes are going to give you the kind of numbers” being projected.
However Donald Trump attempted to play down the significance of the new death toll projection as he made his first major trip away from the White House in almost two months on Tuesday.
Mr Trump insisted he was not concerned about the predictions, because the model assumes "no mitigation" in terms of efforts to curb the spread of the virus such as "washing hands" and "social distancing".
"[The model] is with no mitigation. We have a lot of mitigation," Mr Trump told reporters as he left the White House to tour a mask production plant in Arizona. “Models have been very inaccurate. I’ve seen models that are very inaccurate,” he added.
Mr Trump also doubled down on his criticism of China over its handling of the outbreak, saying "what happened should never, ever have happened".
Mr Trump has previously suggested that the virus could have originated in a Wuhan laboratory - a theory Dr Fauci, his chief adviser on coronavirus, poured cold water on during an interview with National Geographic on Monday. Dr Fauci said the scientific evidence was “very, very strongly leaning toward” the conclusion that the virus originated in nature and jumped from animals to humans.
Australian prime minister Scott Morrison also rebuked the suggestion, saying the origin of the Covid-19 virus was most likely a wildlife wet market in Wuhan.
