Coronavirus Risk Rises To 'High' In 18 NJ Counties: Here's Where

NEW JERSEY – A new report says the coronavirus risk has risen to "high" in 18 New Jersey counties since key metrics continue to skyrocket across the Garden State.

The state Department of Health's "COVID-19 Activity Level Report," which is issued weekly, says the coronavirus activity level rose from "moderate" to "high" over the past week in 18 New Jersey counties. Only three counties – Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland – remain at the "moderate" level.

New Jersey's statewide activity is also at a "high" level, the DOH said, now that New Jersey's new daily case total topped 4,000 on seven of the last 11 days, the first time that's ever happened. It was the first time the Garden State hit that level since May.

On Tuesday, Gov. Phil Murphy announced 4,383 new positive cases and 48 more confirmed fatalities, the highest number since July 11th

The coronavirus risk rose to "high" in each of the counties because:

• The new daily case rate in each of the counties rose to 10 or more per 100,000 people

• The percent of COVID-like illnesses rose above 5.52 in each of the counties.

• The percent of positive cases rose above 10.01.

Murphy addressed the rise during an interview with CBS morning on Tuesday, saying New Jersey has been experiencing a "bad combination" of cold weather and pandemic fatigue in which too many people are letting their guard down.

"We're mostly pleading with people to do the right thing," he said. "The next two to three months, we're in for a tough war."

Murphy said the new report provides regional metrics for health and safety risks "that have further guided our decision-making" in reopening New Jersey.

By rising to a "high" level, state officials said, school districts in those counties may have to take more serious steps – such as quarantining or even shutting down schools – if a child shows the symptoms of COVID-19.

"If you're in a very low-risk district, then you don't need to treat it quite as harshly as if you're in a much higher transmission community where the risk of that person actually having COVID is much higher," said Edward Lifshitz, medical director for the state Department of Health.

Murphy also warned that New Jersey could take additional steps to shut down the economy if things don't improve. He said he's hesitant to do so unless Congress can provide stimulus money for small businesses.

"If we see there's transmission, we'll take action," he said.

If the Garden State gets any worse, state Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said, New Jersey's solution also would be "increased testing, contact tracing, isolation and quarantining."

Persichilli, speaking during a Monday news conference, said New Jersey is seeing widespread increase in cases not because to any specific outbreaks or reopenings, but due to "community spread." Parties, gatherings, daycare and farms, however, are viewed as "contributing" to the rise in cases, she said.

She did say that the increased risk could also compel New Jersey to impose restrictions on visitations at long-term care facilities.

The 18 counties that rose to "high" were:

• Bergen

• Burlington

• Camden

• Essex

• Gloucester

• Hudson

• Hunterdon

• Mercer

• Middlesex

• Monmouth

• Morris

• Ocean

• Passaic

• Salem

• Somerset

• Sussex

• Union

• Warren

Here is what the report says:

Key metrics rising in 18 counties

The report divides New Jersey into regions and assesses their rates of new cases, COVID-19-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The rate of COVID-like illness (CLI) rose by more than 50 percent in Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren, Bergen, Essex and Hudson counties. These illnesses are defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of other types of coronavirus symptoms.

The percent positivity rate also rose above 10 percent in each of those counties.

The daily new COVID-19 case rate, per 100,000 people, rose to "very high" in the 18 counties, which means they exceed 25 cases per 1,000 people. The case rate nearly doubled in one week in Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Salem.

The report divides New Jersey into six regions: Northwest, Northeast, Central West, Central East, Southwest and Southeast. It then looks at each region and assigns each a "current activity level" based on case rates, COVID-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The following is a breakdown of counties contained within each public health region: Northwest: Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren; Northeast: Bergen, Essex, Hudson; Central West: Hunterdon, Mercer, Somerset; Central East: Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union; South West: Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem; South East: Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland.

Data

The state uses various date to determine the level of activity. Here they are:

• Case rate (per 100,000) is calculated as a proportion of the population — specifically, daily new COVID cases for every 100,000 people. Case rate is monitored as a seven-day average.

• COVID-like illness (CLI) is defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of coronavirus diagnosis codes. CLI is monitored as a seven-day weekly average.

• Percent positivity is the percentage of total positive tests out of all COVID-19 tests performed. Percent positivity is monitored as a seven-day average.

• The COVID-19 Activity Level Index (CALI) Score is calculated this way: In each region, each indicator is assigned a value based on the activity range it falls into; next, the values are averaged together and this rounded average gives the CALI Score; the statewide activity level is calculated by averaging the CALI Scores for the six regions.

Here is the data and map for each region, including their activity levels, for the week ending Nov. 14th:

Here is the map and data for the week ending Nov. 7th:

The state's COVID activity timeline

After five months at the "low" or "moderate" level, the DOH says New Jersey's statewide activity has risen to "high."

It was "high" in late in April and May, and "very high" in late March and early April.

The moderate label was first assigned before the state even publicly identified a case: February 15th.

Here is the timeline:

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This article originally appeared on the Asbury Park Patch