Coronavirus is a ‘gut punch’ to Trump’s re-election, GOP strategist admits

Trump speaking at the Coronavirus Task Force press conference: Barcroft Media via Getty Images
Trump speaking at the Coronavirus Task Force press conference: Barcroft Media via Getty Images

The coronavirus outbreak has placed Donald Trump at a crossroads in his presidency as he tries to push an economic stimulus measure through a divided Congress and calm public fears.

The president began Monday as he has so many other days, lashing out a political rivals, blaming others for the virus outbreak and subsequent economic impacts, and pushing conspiracy theories mean to keep his conservative base fired up. But as the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2,000 points and other markets joined its plummet, the president struck a much more serious and subdued tone when he spoke briefly in the evening.

"We just attended a very important task force meeting on the virus that everybody is talking about all over the world. No matter where you go, that's what's on people's minds," he said softly and slowly in the White House briefing room. "This was something that we were thrown into and we're going to handle it, and we have been handling it very well."

As usual, the president described the health of the US economy under his watch as "great" and "strong." But his usual bravado was interrupted by his first admission, however indirect, that the virus – even if he does see it as just another flu strain that will "go away" as temperatures rise – is an anchor on the economy as some experts warn about a recession.

"And we'll have a press conference sometime [Tuesday afternoon], and we'll explain what we're doing on an economic standpoint and from an economic standpoint," he said. "But they will be very, very dramatic. And we have a great economy, we have a very strong economy, but this came, this blindsided the world."

On helping hourly workers who could be without income should they be sent home from work if they are ill, Mr Trump sounded a rare empathetic tone.

"We're also going to be talking about hourly wage earners getting help so that they can be in a position where they're not going to ever miss a paycheck," he said. "We're going to be working with companies and small companies, large companies – a lot of companies – so that they don't get penalized for something that's not their fault. It's not their fault, it's not our country's fault."

The gravity of the moment, with one poll showing a small majority of Americans disapprove of how he's handling the crisis appeared to be hitting home.

That's because Mr Trump has made the "stock market really the one true barometer of his presidency, so the decline, going back to last week, really undercuts his main re-election message," said Evan Siegfried, a Republican strategist.

"Until yesterday, Trump was able to go out and say, 'You might not like me, but you know what you get: Economic security," Mr Siegfried said. "This is a gut punch ... and it's starting at the worst time because it'll take the economy a month or two to catch up, so the bottom could hit just as the campaign is really hitting a stride."

Barbara Perry, a presidential scholar at the University of Virginia, said the president could be facing "what's in play now might be this starts affecting people who say they will support him no matter what and those who did support him but aren't better off than they were four years ago."

"This, to me, feels a little like the Iran crisis. It felt for a while like we were about to have some kind of conflict," Ms Perry said. "We don't know how bad this virus will be, but all the experts say it's going to get worse."

To be sure, as recently as 19 February, amid record US stock index highs, the president's message to his supporters at political rallies was: He had greatly increased the value of their portfolios.

"We've set 144 records on the stock market in three years," he said that night at a campaign rally in Phoenix. "And you know what that means? That your 401(k)s are up 60, 70, 80, 90, 100 percent."

A few weeks later, on the eve of the Super Tuesday presidential primaries, the president again touted the markets' value.

"Our country is stronger than ever before and today we just had the largest one-day increase in the stock market in history. That's great," he said in Charlotte. "Do you think our opponents were thrilled when they saw the stock market today?"

But even with more than 600 US cases and a rising death toll, Mr Trump faces something of an uphill battle in getting enough votes in both chambers for a stimulus bill.

As early as Monday evening, some key GOP committee chairman sounded cool to his idea of a payroll tax cut. The next morning, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he and his caucus "look forward to discussing this with ... the president's team so we can all consider the best ways to move forward for the American people." the Kentucky Republican called for members of both parties to "put reflexive partisanship aside and stay focused on our common work to promote the common good" because "this virus does not care about partisan divisions."

But Mr McConnell did not endorse a single one of the ideas Mr Trump mentioned on Monday evening.

"How he gets out of this, is the president is going to have to find something that a vast majority of all Americans – not just his base – supports," Mr Siegfried said. "Otherwise, this could be snowball that becomes a domino effect."

White House aides did not dispel the notion that the potential economic impact have gotten Mr Trump's attention. Notably, as reporters peppered him with questions during a meeting with insurance executives at the White House about the virus and economy, the president sat mostly silent, arms crossed over his chest.

"Since the administration missed the boat on containing the virus, there isn't much the president can do now," Ms Perry of the University of Virginia said. "The big question now is what happens when this starts affecting people in their everyday lives?"

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