Coronavirus update: Tulare County sees second week of record new infections as omicron surges

For the second week in a row, Tulare County saw a weekly record number of new COVID-19 infections as the omicron variant continues to spread rapidly in the community, according to weekly data released Wednesday by Tulare County Health and Human Services Agency.

For the week ending Jan. 25, Tulare County saw 8,251 new COVID-19 infections. Coupled with 7,270 infections last week, the county saw more than 15,500 new infections in the previous two weeks, pushing January's total to a new monthly record of 17,580 new infections.

The previous monthly high for new COVID-19 infections was 12,111 in January 2021.

The county's new case rate increased to 198 daily infections per 100,000 people. In late December, the county's new case rate was 11. Testing positivity rates also increased to 32% from 29% on Jan. 18. Positivity rates were 4.8% on Dec. 29.

Visalia Unified: Staff shortages continue as cases reported at all schools, sites

The case and positivity rates and current active cases of 14,967 are the highest recorded in Tulare County during the pandemic. The numbers are also skewed lower because all at-home tests are not included in totals.

The massive omicron-fueled new infection wave hasn't so far led to the same high death and hospitalization rates of the 2021 COVID-19 winter surge, though. So far in January, 75 people have died of COVID-19-related diseases. In January 2021, 192 people died of COVID-19 complications. February 2021 saw 163 COVID-19-related deaths.

Still, January 2022 is on pace to the fourth-deadliest month in Tulare County since the COVID-19 pandemic began in March 2020.

Omicron: More infectious, less lethal

The omicron variant spreads even more easily than other coronavirus strains. It also more easily infects those who have been vaccinated or were infected by prior virus versions. However, early studies show omicron is less likely to cause severe illness than the delta variant, and vaccination and a booster still offer strong protection from serious illness, hospitalization, and death.

What is the BA.2 variant?: New ‘stealth omicron’ coronavirus strain found in California

As of Tuesday, Kaweah Health was treating 115 COVID patients, nine of whom were in the ICU. Countywide, 158 people are hospitalized with COVID. In January 2021, Kaweah Health had a record 169 COVID-19 patients earlier in the pandemic.

Both Kaweah Health and Tulare County Health and Human Service officials were hopeful the omicron-fueled wave of new infections wouldn't lead to overwhelming serious illnesses and deaths at local hospitals. Still, only the coming weeks will tell how the people with COVID cases reported over the last two weeks will fair.

Latest COVID-19 metrics: California past peak?

While COVID-19 pandemic metrics are grim in Tulare County, California statewide showed signs it turned the corner on the omicron wave of the coronavirus pandemic, with infection rates falling and hospitalizations well short of the overwhelming deluge officials feared a few weeks ago.

“This omicron spread like wildfire, and now it’s dropping very rapidly. And that’s exactly what we expect,” Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, an epidemiologist at the University of Southern California, said. “It’s like when a wildfire burns up all the fuel. There’s no more fuel to burn, and the wildfire goes out.”

Intensive care cases take longer to develop, so the peak of about 3,000 ICU patients isn't expected for another week. The number then is projected to fall quickly, possibly below 1,000 by the end of February. The death rate will keep growing, with over 5,000 people projected to succumb in the next three weeks before it too falls.

“While we are finally turning a corner on this surge, we will need to remain cautious to reduce transmission to a low enough level that it poses less risk for those most vulnerable and less risk for our recovery journey," said Dr. Barbara Ferrer, Los Angeles County’s public health director.

Health officials are optimistic that the worst of this surge is ending statewide based on many key indicators. Notably, the R-effective measures the likelihood that a disease will spread has dropped to its lowest statewide level in many months after peaking around Christmas.

“All those are good signs. We still know that the number of deaths are the biggest lag after the number of positive tests and hospitalizations, so we’re not out of the woods yet in terms of the number of people dying,” Klausner said. ”But all these factors are pointing to the reality that people are developing immunity to omicron."

The global picture

In its weekly assessment of the pandemic, issued late Tuesday, The World Health Organization said the number of new coronavirus infections rose by 5% last week and that the rate of increase appears to be slowing; only half of regions reported an increase in COVID-19. Earlier this month, the previous highest number of cases — 9.5 million — was recorded amid a 71% spike from the week before, as the hugely contagious omicron variant swept the world.

WHO said the biggest increase in cases was seen in the Middle East, with a 39% rise, followed by a 36% jump in Southeast Asia. Deaths increased in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas but fell in other regions.

Since the pandemic started in March 2020, 90,226 Tulare County residents have been infected with COVID-19, and 1,228 people have died from complications of the virus.

James Ward covers entertainment, news, sports, and lifestyles for the Visalia Times-Delta/Tulare Advance-Register. Follow him on Twitter. Get alerts and keep up on all things Tulare County for as little as $1 a month. Subscribe today.

Editor's note

A USA TODAY Network story published Tuesday reporting Tulare County COVID-19 infections relied on incomplete data that was disrupted during the Martin Luther King Jr. weekend. Week-to-week comparisons were skewed and these numbers were unreliable even as they're accurate to what states reported.

This article originally appeared on Visalia Times-Delta: New Tulare County COVID infections hit record for second straight week