Coronavirus updates: California’s plateau continues; Newsom talks vaccine timeline

With coronavirus numbers growing increasingly dire in other parts of the United States, COVID-19 activity has now continued on a plateauing trend in California for at least a month.

Two months ago on Aug. 19, the state’s rolling two-week average for new lab-confirmed cases stood at just under 8,200, according to data from the California Department of Public Health. By Sept. 19, as the summer surge subsided, that rate had plummeted to about 3,300. The figure has been fluctuating slightly but has remained between 3,100 and 3,425 since then, CDPH data show.

California’s hospitalization rate has correlated with the stabilizing infection total as one might expect, given the typical timeline of progression for the respiratory disease. Two weeks after Sept. 19, on Oct. 3, the state had 2,283 people with lab-confirmed cases in hospital beds. As of Monday morning, the reported total was 2,241. Like with cases, day-to-day fluctuation in the hospital rate has been minimal, state data show.

The ICU total has grown 10% since last Thursday from 600 to 660, 36 of which were added Monday morning. The hospitalization total and the number of patients in California ICUs are still near their lowest points since about early April.

The death rate, meanwhile, continues a downward trend from a summer surge that saw July and August turn into California’s two deadliest months of the pandemic.

Daily deaths, also as a rolling two-week average, peaked at about 142 on Aug. 13. It’s been a steady and consistent decline since then, with the rate dropping below 100 deaths a day on Sept. 16 and falling beneath 60 this past weekend and remaining there after the addition Monday of 27 newly reported deaths. With a brief two-day exception on July 4 and July 5, California’s rolling average for death toll hadn’t fallen below 60 since mid-April.

California’s test rate positivity — the percentage of diagnostic COVID-19 tests coming back positive — dropped to 2.5% for the past two weeks. That metric had ranged from 7% to 7.5% in mid-July.

Newsom: Don’t expect widely available vaccine in 2020

The state has put together a “Scientific Safety Review” panel of 11 health experts who will review the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines and their suitability to be distributed and administered in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced in a Monday news conference.

Newsom said that even in the best case scenario, in which a vaccine gets clinical approval before the end of the calendar year, “mass availability” isn’t expected until 2021.

“Don’t anticipate or expect that you can go down to a local pharmacy anytime this year and get a vaccination,” the governor said.

Any initial limited supplies will be dedicated to vulnerable groups, such as those age 65 or older, health care workers and the incarcerated. Experts have said wide vaccine distribution in the U.S. likely won’t happen until some point in the first three quarters of 2021.

“Vaccines will not end this epidemic overnight,” Newsom said. “That’s why it’s absolutely essential that we maintain our vigilance.”

California’s recent new case rate among best in struggling U.S.

California has reported 870,791 lab-positive cases of COVID-19 and 16,970 deaths since the health crisis began more than seven months ago. The state has recorded the most infections and third-most deaths, behind New York and Texas, of any state in terms of pure volume, according to a data dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins University.

But with its roughly 40 million residents making it the most populous among the 50 U.S. states, California remains middle-of-the-pack on a per-capita basis for the entire pandemic, according to Johns Hopkins data.

More recently, it has fared even better. According to a New York Times data survey, California over the past week had 54 new cases per 100,000 residents, tied with Oregon for sixth-best among the 50 states plus Washington, D.C. At the other end, North Dakota and South Dakota each had more than 500 cases per 100,000 last week.

The recent New York Times story states that the “national trajectory is only worsening” in what appears to be the United States’ third distinct wave of new cases within the pandemic. The first came in the spring, with the epicenter in New York; the second, over the summer, included California’s large spike in cases; and now, the third and ongoing peak involves major outbreaks emerging across the Midwest and Great Plains.

One prominent infectious disease expert predicted Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the coming winter months will be the “darkest of the entire pandemic” in the U.S.

With infections also resurging in Europe, last Thursday and Friday marked the first two days of the pandemic in which more than 400,000 new cases were reported worldwide, Johns Hopkins data show. More than 40 million have now been infected globally, resulting in over 1,114,000 fatalities, according to the university’s COVID-19 tracker.

Sacramento County officials broke COVID-19 rules in meeting

County department heads last week convened for an hours-long, indoor meeting in Sacramento where many who attended did not wear masks, an apparent violation of the statewide face covering mandate and the county government’s health order for COVID-19, The Sacramento Bee reported Sunday.

Sacramento County Executive Navdeep Gill, the top official in county government, held Thursday’s meeting of roughly 40 to 45 people at the county probation department’s headquarters on Folsom Boulevard, according to sources who spoke to The Bee on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment. One attendee has since tested positive.

County health chief Dr. Peter Beilenson, who also attended the meeting, confirmed to The Bee on Sunday via text message that many were not wearing face coverings in the meeting, but he indicated that people were socially distanced “to a large extent.”

Beilenson said everyone at the meeting has been notified of the positive test and they are being tested themselves. The 10 people sitting closest to the person who tested positive have been told to quarantine at home.

County spokeswoman Kim Nava in an emailed statement told The Bee that Thursday’s meeting happened in a large conference room.

“There was appropriate social distancing and a majority of meeting participants came into the meeting wearing face coverings,” she wrote, confirming that some took their masks off once they were seated.

Gill, who reportedly did not wear a mask, was “at least ten feet away from other meeting attendees,” Nava wrote.

Latest on California’s reopening effort

Since beginning in early September with a majority of California’s counties in the most restrictive purple stage, at that point accounting for more than 85% of its population, the four-tiered reopening framework from CDPH now has most of the state’s 58 in the middle two levels, after numerous promotions over the past six weekly updates.

Entering this week, 10 counties are in the purple tier, 27 are in the less-restrictive red tier, 13 have improved to the orange tier and eight sparsely populated counties are in the best possible yellow tier.

Notable purple tier counties, where businesses and activities including restaurants, shopping malls, places of worships and gyms must still remain closed for indoor operations, include Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Monterey.

Tehama County, also purple, along with neighboring red-tier Shasta County in early October became the first two counties to be demoted by CDPH to a more restrictive tier, following a surge in new cases. Recent case totals indicate Shasta is very likely to wind up demoted again, also to the purple tier, when the list is updated next on Tuesday.

All of the Sacramento region is now red (Sacramento, Yolo, Sutter and Yuba) or orange (El Dorado and Placer) territory. The same is true for the Bay Area.

In red counties, many types of indoor businesses are allowed back open with mask requirements and a capacity limit of 25%. At the orange level, many of those capacity limits are doubled to 50%, and a few more types of entertainment businesses, such as bowling alleys, may reopen.

Sacramento library shelves could be back open for browsing soon

The Sacramento Public Library system, which has more than two dozen branches throughout Sacramento County, is set to reopen more fully in early November.

Libraries can open in red tier counties with the same modifications as retail businesses, which include a maximum capacity of 50%. For months, Sacramento’s library system has been open for curbside pickup and returns at 26 of its 28 branches; about a month ago, it started offering one-hour computer use appointments at 14 of its locations.

As the transition back to fuller opening continues, the 28-library system currently plans “to open in-person browsing at as many locations as possible” on Nov. 5, according to an agenda item for this week’s library board meeting.

An earlier planned date of Oct. 27 was pushed back due to the election. Now through Nov. 2, Sacramento County has ballot drop boxes set up at the same 26 locations where it offers curbside pickup — all except the Ella K. McClatchy Library and the Orangevale Library.

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Sacramento-area numbers: Over 600 residents dead

California’s capital region has had generally improving rates of COVID-19 infection or death, but the six-county area recently surpassed 600 total deaths.

Sacramento County as of a Monday morning update has recorded a total of 24,582 lab-positive cases and 471 deaths. County health officials added 390 new cases for Saturday through Monday, an average of 130 a day.

The county has now reported 15 deaths through the first 15 days of October, a pace that would make it the least deadly month since June, though it will take days or possibly weeks after Halloween for the month’s fatality total to be finalized due to the time it takes to confirm official cause of death. Over 100 county residents died in September, according to the local health office.

There were 81 patients in Sacramento County hospitals with confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 23 in ICUs, according to Monday’s state data update. Each figure is equal to the state’s rolling average for the past two weeks. The county maintains 100 available ICU beds.

Sacramento County estimates about 1,550 cases remain active, down from a peak of about 3,600 over the summer.

On Sept. 29, Sacramento County was moved down in the state’s regional coronavirus tier list from the most-severe category, purple, into the less-restrictive red tier, indicating substantial viral activity but improving conditions overall, and has remained there since.

Yolo County, which joined Sacramento in the less restrictive red tier in late September, has reported just over 3,000 infections. Health officials have received positive coronavirus test results from 3,063 patients, and have reported 56 deaths from COVID-19. Yolo added 17 new cases Sunday.

Yolo officials recently reported an outbreak at Alderson Convalescent Hospital, the second cluster of COVID-19 cases at the skilled nursing facility since July. To date, 42 residents of the 140-bed facility and 15 staff members have tested positive. Three residents have died.

Yolo as a whole has six patients in hospitals with COVID-19, including four in intensive care.

Placer County has reported 3,880 total infections and 52 deaths, last updated Friday. After being placed into the orange tier last week, many of Placer County’s indoor establishments can bump up their capacities to higher limits..

Placer on its county dashboard for COVID-19 activity, last updated Friday, said it had eight cases hospitalized specifically for the coroanvirus, including two in intensive are.

El Dorado County is one of a small number of counties to have reported deaths below double-digits, with just four since the start of the pandemic. Health officials have reported a total of 1,275 infections through last Friday, 506 of them from the Lake Tahoe area, still the leading site of infection in the county. The county’s test positivity rate is 1.7%.

No one is hospitalized in El Dorado, according to state data updated Monday.

Although El Dorado health officials were warned last week that it may be moved back up into the red tier, its infection rate improved and it remained in the orange tier.

Sutter County health officials have reported 1,796 people positive for coronavirus and 12 dead. Three people were hospitalized with COVID-19 as of that time.

Yuba County officials have reported 1,253 infections and 10 dead. Three patients are hospitalized and seven new cases were reported Friday. Neither Yuba nor Sutter had any patients in intensive care as of Friday, the counties said.

Yuba and Sutter counties, which share a bi-county health office, are now both in the red tier.

The Bee’s Tony Bizjak, Sophia Bollag, Marcos Bretón and Vincent Moleski contributed to this story. Listen to our daily briefing:

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