Coronavirus updates: California hospital rates slowing; vaccines for ages 65 and up

With coronavirus infections and hospitalizations starting to show some early signs of a plateau in California, and a massive change to the COVID-19 vaccination timeline, health leaders are hopeful the winter surge will be the last major one of the pandemic.

But that surge is ongoing, and the plateau is a high one.

The California Department of Public Health has reported an average of 40,800 new cases per day over the past two weeks, a new record for the state; however, Wednesday’s 34,000 cases and Thursday’s 36,000 should move the needle downward soon. The state reports test positivity over the last week at 12.6%, lower than the two-week average of 13.4%.

Totals for confirmed coronavirus patients in hospitals and intensive care units have shrunk modestly but also remain only slightly below their all-time highs, reported Thursday at about 21,300 hospitalized with 4,770 in ICUs.

As a result, deaths — a figure that lags behind hospitalizations by a couple of weeks due to the progression time for virus symptoms — will likely continue a steep climb for most or all of the remainder of January. The two-week daily death rate has already soared from 50 on Nov. 1 to 448 as of Thursday’s CDPH update.

State health officials disclosed 589 new COVID-19 deaths Wednesday and another 552 Thursday.

One of the first harbingers of California perhaps starting to turn a corner came Tuesday, when Gov. Gavin Newsom and state health officials announced the 13-county Greater Sacramento region has exited the regional stay-at-home order due to improving projections for ICU space in early February.

The removal puts most of those counties back into the state’s purple reopening tier, in which restaurants can reopen outdoor dining spaces and personal care services like salons and barbershops can resume business.

Dr. Olivia Kasirye, Sacramento County’s public health officer, called on residents and business owners to “comply with the cautious reopening of business sectors and maintain social distancing, limit gatherings with non-household members and always wear a mask in public spaces.”

“The COVID-19 vaccines distribution has started, but it will take several weeks for the full protection to develop in our communities – until then, we must continue to protect ourselves and others from exposure to this deadly virus,” she said.

Sacramento was the first of the four regions that had entered the tight stay-at-home restrictions during December to be removed from them.

The state still reports aggregate ICU availability of 0% for both Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley.

Like the statewide totals, though, CDPH data reflect plateaus or decline for several of the biggest counties in each of those two regions. Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside have all shown decline in Southern California, though hospitalizations are still rising in San Diego. And Fresno, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties have seen their rates plateau, while Kern remains on the rise.

To date across California, more than 2.8 million people have tested positive for COVID-19, at least 31,654 of whom have died, according to CDPH.

Vaccines for those 65 and older

Newsom announced Wednesday that California is giving the green light to vaccinate adults ages 65 or older, putting that group next in line after health workers and skilled nursing home residents, in the same priority group previously reserved for those 75 and older.

The move came after federal guidelines suggested states do so, and with California already suffering a slow start to its vaccine rollout. The state has administered one of the lowest percentages of distributed doses of any in the U.S.

However, some county health officers are critical of the decision to hasten vaccinations at this time, saying staffs are already overworked with doses in their current, limited supplies.

“Expanding the list of who is eligible for the vaccine does not get us more doses,” said Kat DeBurgh, executive director of the Health Officers Association of California. “It does not get us more vaccinators, or any of the other resources we need to effectively run our operations.”

In the Sacramento area, Yolo County health officer Dr. Aimee Sisson said Yolo “will begin vaccinating those 65+ and others in Phase 1B as soon as we finish vaccinating the several thousand remaining health care workers prioritized in Phase 1B.”

State Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said earlier this week California’s emphasis on risk, exposure and equity in the distribution process “has led to some delays in getting vaccine out into our communities.”

Sacramento area by the numbers: Over 1,500 dead

The six counties that make up the bulk of the 13-county Greater Sacramento region — Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties — have reported more than 120,000 combined positive cases and recorded at least 1,503 virus deaths as of Thursday.

Sacramento County has confirmed 77,002 cases since the onset of the pandemic, and at least 1,062 of those residents have died of COVID-19. The county reported 782 new cases and 18 new deaths Thursday, following 984 cases and 13 fatalities in Wednesday’s update.

By date of death occurrence, December marked by far Sacramento County’s deadliest month of the pandemic. County health officials now report at least 343 deaths for the month — an average of more than 11 a day. The total is still growing as death confirmations are made official, mostly from the end of the month, but it has already exceeded the previous worst month, August, by 162 deaths.

Additionally, at least 40 county residents died during the first nine days January, the county said.

Virus hospitalizations in Sacramento County have fluctuated some but have held relatively stable, while ICU cases continue to climb. The overall patient total was 494 as of Thursday, up two from Wednesday, while the ICU has fallen from a record-high 120 on Tuesday to 114 Thursday, state data show. However, the available ICU bed total has also plummeted, from 83 to 58 in the past two days.

Placer County health officials have confirmed a total of 16,317 infections and 170 deaths, on Wednesday adding 182 new cases and 10 fatalities.

State data show Placer’s hospitalized total declining from a peak of 216 near the end of 2020. Placer’s own local dashboard on Wednesday showed 148 in hospitals, down seven from the previous day, with 30 in ICUs; state data on Thursday showed 165 hospitalized and 28 in ICUs. The state reports eight ICU beds now available across Placer, down one from Wednesday.

Yolo County has reported a total of 9,505 cases and 131 deaths, adding 60 cases and one new death Wednesday following 140 cases and three deaths Tuesday.

State data showed Yolo with 30 virus patients in hospital beds both Wednesday and Thursday, up from 26 on Tuesday but below the 32 reported Monday, and with the ICU tally holding at nine. The state reports 24 ICU beds available in Yolo County, up six from Wednesday. Yolo’s local dashboard in recent updates has shown lower available bed counts than the state.

El Dorado County has reported 7,326 positive test results and 38 deaths, updated Wednesday with 104 new cases and one new death following 181 cases and five deaths reported Tuesday.

Following just four deaths from March through mid-November, at least 35 El Dorado residents died of COVID-19 between Nov. 25 and New Year’s Day, county officials report.

State health officials reported a record-high 46 virus patients in El Dorado on Tuesday, but the figure dropped to 37 as of Wednesday’s update. The ICU total grew by two, from nine to 11, with available beds falling from six to five, according to CDPH.

In Sutter County, at least 7,379 people have contracted the virus and 75 have died. Sutter on Wednesday reported 63 cases along with one death, following 70 cases and one death reported Tuesday.

Sutter County reports 42 residents hospitalized with COVID-19, compared to 43 on both Monday and Tuesday, down from a record-high 58 on Jan. 6. Eleven are in intensive care, down one since Monday.

Neighboring Yuba County has reported 4,712 infections and 26 dead, with 74 new cases reported Wednesday following 42 on Tuesday, with no deaths added either day.

Yuba said Wednesday it had 27 residents hospitalized with the virus, down eight from a record high of 35 set last Friday. But seven are in ICUs, up one from Friday.

Not all patients are necessarily hospitalized in-county, but the only hospital serving the Yuba-Sutter bicounty region — Adventist-Rideout in Marysville — had 53 hospitalized virus patients as of Thursday’s state data update, down two from Wednesday, with the ICU total holding steady at 15. However, zero ICU bed remains available, down from one on Wednesday.

The Bee’s Tony Bizjak, Sophia Bollag, Dale Kasler and Alexandra Yoon-Hendricks contributed to this story.