Coronavirus updates: California infections trending up, death rate decline slowing

New coronavirus infections in California have recently been on a short-term increase, while the death rate may be shifting from a decline to more of a plateau, state COVID-19 data show.

California’s reported death toll has been holding steady at an average of about 60 a day since mid-October.

The rate roughly matches that of California’s earlier plateau in June, just before the summer surge in cases and hospitalizations turned July and August into the state’s two deadliest months of the pandemic. Deaths have dropped consistently since the peak, whittling from a rolling two-week average of 142 daily deaths on Aug. 13, to below 100 by Sept. 16, to under 80 by Oct. 5.

Confirmed COVID-19 infections are now emerging in the state at a pace not seen since the first half of September. The two-week average for daily new lab-confirmed cases is now about 3,830, according to the California Department of Public Health. The rolling average had hovered between about 3,100 and 3,400 a day from Sept. 17 up until this past weekend.

A recent data discrepancy from Los Angeles County has complicated the state’s infection figures a bit. The county last week had a technology-related reporting issue that created a backlog of several thousand COVID-19 cases.

As that backlog was cleared, daily new cases at the state level spiked well above what had been typical for more than a month. Friday, Saturday and Sunday’s reported totals were California’s three highest since late August, before Monday and Tuesday’s updates returned to the recent norm.

As a result, the statewide two-week rolling average for daily new infections rose from 3,280 last Thursday to more than 3,800 by Wednesday’s daily update from CDPH. Because the reporting issue and the associated data correction both came within the past 14 days, the recent figure should be closer to accurate than Thursday’s 3,280, which is now known to be an underreported total.

In other words, there has been a true increase in activity, now amounting to about 400 more daily cases in the past two weeks than the high end of the plateau that lasted from mid-September through early October, but the spike that appears in California’s graph for new cases is more abrupt than it should be.

CDPH on Wednesday reported 4,515 new cases, the most in a day with no backlog-related disclaimer since Sept. 12, along with 75 new deaths.

Los Angeles County’s public health department acknowledges increasing COVID-19 spread. In a Tuesday update, county health officials wrote that the nearly 1,600 new cases reported that day — not linked to a backlog — were well above an average of 940 at the start of October, which is “a cause for concern.”

Los Angeles remains in CDPH’s most-restrictive purple tier, one of nine counties in that classification. In purple counties, businesses including restaurants and gyms, along with places of worship and other activities, are supposed to remain closed for indoor operations.

But it’s not just Los Angeles - which accounts for one-quarter of California’s 40 million residents, about one-third of the state’s 904,000 confirmed cases and 40% of the state’s 17,400 deaths - contributing to rising coronavirus numbers across California.

A recent Sacramento Bee analysis determined new infections in the capital-region counties of Sacramento, Placer and Yolo have been on a short-term but significant rise since the middle of this month.

Local health leaders attributed the growth in part to outbreaks at senior care facilities, but also to large gatherings that people should still be avoiding. Placer County health director Dr. Rob Oldham said 16% of Placer residents who have tested positive in October attended a large gathering, contact tracing efforts determined, which is the highest percentage of any month in the pandemic.

Test rate positivity at the state level, which had been declining since mid-August and trimmed from 3% in late September to 2.5% by Oct. 14, ticked back up to 3% in the past two weeks. Positivity over the past seven days is 3.3%, the state says. That also suggests a recent increase in true spread of the highly contagious virus.

Hospitalizations continue to trend on a plateau in California, where about 2,340 COVID-19 patients are in hospital beds, including about 660 in intensive care units.

Tier updates, changes to state’s demotion process for counties

Despite the slight recent increase, coronavirus activity continues to show significant variance from region to region within California.

This was reflected in Tuesday’s tier list update, in which state health officials allowed seven of the state’s 58 counties to advance to less restrictive tiers, including three in the Bay Area.

None were demoted to a more restrictive tier, though several, including Placer County, were warned that their infection and test positivity metrics have begun to slip out of the ranges required to stay in their current levels.

A county’s tier level governs which businesses and activities are allowed to reopen indoors, and how tight restrictions such as capacity limits must be.

Generally, a county will be moved back down to a more restrictive tier and forced to re-tighten its protocols if it fails for two straight weeks to meet all criteria for its current stage.

However, the state on Tuesday gave greater leeway to counties that will let them stay open despite two consecutive weeks of failing to meet the numerical requirements, according to CDPH.

Now, each week, “If a county’s adjusted case rate and/or test positivity has fallen within a more restrictive tier for two consecutive weekly periods, the state will review the most recent 10 days of data, and if CDPH determines there are objective signs of improvement the county may remain in the tier,” the updated rules for tier assignments read.

The change kept Shasta County in the red tier this week despite three straight weeks with new infection totals failing to meet the requirement for red.

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Was the World Series a source of increased COVID-19 spread?

Los Angeles County public health officials expressed direct concern that COVID-19 may have spread due to fans failing to adhere to gathering and social distancing protocols while watching the World Series, which concluded Tuesday with the Dodgers defeating the Tampa Bay Rays at a neutral site in Texas, on TV.

“This last week, Public Health observed many instances of customers at restaurants not following the required infection control protocols while watching sporting events such as the World Series on television,” the county health office said in a news release Tuesday, before the game.

“Public Health urges restaurants, breweries, and wineries that show sporting events on televisions to strictly adhere to public health protocols and directives to prevent increases of COVID-19. This includes not allowing customers to congregate in any areas or around televisions, ensuring guests are seated at a table, and keeping at least six feet of physical distance between tables.”

Speaking of COVID-19 and the World Series, in a head-turning development during its sixth and final game Tuesday night in Arlington, Texas, Dodgers player Justin Turner reportedly received a positive test result mid-game and had to be pulled.

Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred said Turner had been “immediately isolated” to prevent spread to teammates and others.

But in reality, Turner celebrated with his team. Video broadcasts from the field showed Turner back out on the field after the Dodgers won Game 6 and the series, celebrating with teammates and at times removing his mask to pose for photos.

Stories and columns from numerous national sports and news media outlets, from USA Today to Sports Illustrated to Yahoo Sports, condemned the celebration as risky and a clear violation of protocols.

Latest capital region numbers: Sacramento County near 500 dead

The six-county Sacramento region has now combined for 642 reported COVID-19 deaths and nearly 38,000 confirmed infections over the course of the pandemic.

Sacramento County has recorded a total of 25,882 lab-positive cases and 499 deaths during the pandemic. Health officials added 149 new cases Tuesday and 132 Wednesday.

The county has now reported at least 36 deaths from Oct. 1 through Oct. 24, surpassing April’s total of 34 for fourth-most in a month. Continued death confirmations for September have pushed that month’s death toll to 116, according to the local health office. Nearly 180 county residents died in August, after 87 died in July.

Hospitalizations in Sacramento are at 76, according to state data updated Wednesday, down from 84 one day earlier. The number of ICU patients has decreased to 12, which is the county’s lowest total for that metric since June 14.

Sacramento is in the red tier.

Yolo County, which joined Sacramento in the red tier in late September, has reported 3,234 total infections and 60 deaths from COVID-19. Yolo reported one new death Wednesday after one Sunday and two last week. The county added 16 new cases Wednesday.

Yolo has eight patients in hospitals with COVID-19 as of Wednesday, up from seven on Tuesday, with three still in intensive care, state data show.

Placer County surpassed 4,000 all-time infections last week and reported five deaths last week for an all-time total of 57 fatalities. The county has now reported 4,248 cases since the start of the pandemic. It added 41 cases Wednesday after adding 29 on Tuesday.

Sorted by “episode date,” which generally refers to the date that a given test specimen was collected rather than when the positive result was reported, Placer’s COVID-19 data dashboard now shows 48 new positive cases from last Friday and 43 from Oct. 19. Those are the two highest totals since Sept. 1, and each is more than double the county’s average from Oct. 1 to Oct. 18 of just over 20 new daily cases.

Placer says on its hospitalization dashboard that it has 15 patients in hospital beds specifically being treated for COVID-19 as of Wednesday, including four in ICUs, up from 13 hospitalized and three in the ICU on Tuesday.

Placer is in the orange tier.

El Dorado County is one of a small number of counties with a single-digit death toll, with just four fatalities since the start of the pandemic. Health officials have reported a total of 1,368 infections, adding 36 cases between Saturday and Monday, 10 Tuesday and seven Wednesday.

El Dorado has one patient hospitalized and in an ICU as of Wednesday.

The county remains in the orange tier.

Sutter County health officials have reported a total of 1,889 people positive for coronavirus and 12 dead, with data last updated Wednesday. Five people were hospitalized with COVID-19, but none of them were in the ICU, according to county health officials.

Yuba County officials have reported a total of 1,338 infections and 10 deaths. Like Sutter, Yuba has four patients hospitalized, but not in ICUs.

Sutter and Yuba are both in the red tier.

The Bee’s Tony Bizjak, Noel Harris, Phillip Reese and Darrell Smith, and McClatchy reporter Mike Stunson contributed to this story. Listen to our daily briefing:

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