Coronavirus updates: California surge already dire, critical post-Christmas period nears

California continues to brace for a post-holiday reckoning and what health officials hope will be the state’s last major surge of the coronavirus pandemic, with hospitals already buckling under floods of virus patients and the vaccine rollout proceeding sluggishly.

Early in 2021, the state’s baselines for COVID-19 activity remain at or near their highest points of the 10-month health crisis. The fear among health leaders is that the combination of Christmas and New Year’s celebrations will drive already-astronomical numbers even higher by about the middle of January.

Cases have poured in at an average of over 37,000 a day, which is more than a quarter-million every week, since the calendar officially flipped over to winter. At the start of November, the daily case rate was about 4,300.

COVID-19 deaths in the past two weeks have come at a rate of 291 per day, nearly quadrupling the average of 73 reported one month earlier.

To date, more than 2.45 million Californians have tested positive for the disease and more than 27,000 have succumbed to it, according to the California Department of Public Health, which reported 368 new deaths Tuesday.

Deaths won’t slow down soon. More than 21,500 lab-confirmed cases were in hospitals — nearly 30% of all licensed hospital beds statewide — as of a Tuesday update from CDPH. That includes more than 4,600 in intensive care units.

In Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley, hospitals have reached deep into surge protocols to treat patients, with the state reporting both vast regions’ ICU availability rates at 0% for weeks.

In one particularly haunting memo sent Monday, Los Angeles County health and emergency leaders effectively directed paramedics not to transport patients with low chances of survival to hospitals. It’s an instance of what officials have gravely feared: life-saving care being rationed due to depleted resources.

“(D)ue to the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,” the memo reads, in part, “... adult patients in blunt traumatic and nontraumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) shall not be transported if return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) is not achieved in the field.”

While hospitalized COVID-19 patient totals are still rising, the rate of growth has slowed some, CDPH data show. But consider also that growth will necessarily slow down — especially ICU growth — as hospitals and their wards fill closer to full capacity, and as dire measures like Los Angeles’ paramedic directive result in fewer hospital admissions.

Yuba County, for instance, had the smallest percentage increase of ICU patients over the past three weeks among any county with a double-digit total in ICUs, The Bee determined based on CDPH data. But it was still an increase from 15 to 18 concurrent patients, leaving just one available ICU bed.

The lone hospital in Yuba County, Adventist-Rideout in Marysville, has for weeks had California National Guard personnel assisting in its overtaxed emergency department, a hospital spokesperson confirmed to The Bee last week.

There have been small nuggets of relatively good news within the data. California’s two-week test positivity rate, which monitors spread of the virus while controlling for day-to-day fluctuations in tests processed, appears to be on a plateau: it has ranged mostly between 12% and 12.7% since Dec. 19, following steep and consistent incline through most of November and the first half of December.

Still, state and local health leaders are concerned that, given typical incubation and reporting periods for the virus, the wave of potential Christmas-linked cases and hospital admissions could start to undo that progress any day, with New Year’s impact not far behind.

Slow vaccine pace still sparking frustration

Gov. Gavin Newsom during a Monday news conference shared his frustration that vaccine rollout process is proceeding too slowly in California, as is the case across most of the U.S.

The governor said Monday that 454,000 shots had been administered. The state was supposed to receive 2 million doses, between Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna’s vaccines, by the end of 2020.

Instead, California started 2021 having received about 1.3 million with roughly 600,000 currently en route, Newsom said.

“For many of us, all of us, I think, want to see 100% of what’s received immediately administered in people’s arms,” Newsom said

He said the state is trying to be more aggressive in establishing distribution centers and letting other types of health care workers, such as dentists, administer shots.

As federal distribution hits snags, California will continue considering its Phase 1B and 1C plans, finalizing who will be designated to receive the next rounds of shots after they are given to front-line health care workers and to staff and residents of high-risk facilities like skilled nursing homes.

California’s vaccine advisory committee will meet Wednesday afternoon.

Latest in Sacramento area: Over 1,250 dead

The six counties that make up the bulk of Greater Sacramento — Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties — surpassed 100,000 confirmed cumulative COVID-19 cases early last week. At least 1,265 residents of those six counties have died of the disease.

Sacramento County has reported a total of 69,552 infections since the onset of the pandemic, and at least 917 of those residents have died of COVID-19. County health officials reported 441 new cases and 19 new deaths Tuesday, after reporting 41 new deaths and 3,866 cases — an average of 967 per day — for the four-day window from New Year’s Day through Monday.

By date of death occurrence, December has blown past August as Sacramento County’s deadliest month of the pandemic. County health officials now report a staggering 241 deaths for Dec. 1 through Dec. 29, 60 more than all of August and still growing as deaths are confirmed from throughout the month.

Virus hospitalizations in Sacramento County have fluctuated recently. The total in hospital beds fell from 488 on Monday record to 465 on Tuesday.

State data showed there were 102 ICU patients countywide as of Tuesday, down three from Sunday. Available ICU beds were at 87, up six from Monday.

Placer County health officials have confirmed a total of 14,687 infections and 132 deaths, updated Monday evening with 932 cases and seven fatalities for the four-day reporting period including New Year’s Day.

State data show Placer’s hospitalized total dropping to 176 on Monday, down from a record 216 last Wednesday, then increasing slightly to 178 by Tuesday. The number of ICU patients, rose to an all-time high of 31 with Monday’s update, then dipped to 29 on Tuesday.

The state reports 19 ICU beds left available in Placer, down four from Monday.

Yolo County reported a total of 8,402 cases and 117 deaths as of Sunday. Yolo over the weekend reported 305 new cases and eight new deaths for the three-day window including New Year’s Day. County officials noted there would be no update Monday because of problems with the state database.

State data showed Yolo with a 28 virus patients in hospital beds, one below its record, including 12 in intensive care. The state now reports 14 ICU beds available in Yolo County, a sudden decrease by 12 from Monday’s count.

El Dorado County has reported 6,095 positive test results and 24 deaths, updated Monday with the addition of 376 cases for the past four days.

Following just four deaths from March through mid-November, 20 El Dorado residents have died of COVID-19 since Nov. 25, county officials report.

State health officials reported a record-high 38 virus hospitalizations in El Dorado, including 12 in ICUs on Tuesday. However, the number of available ICU beds grew from four to five as hospitals work to expand surge capacity.

In Sutter County, at least 6,505 people have been infected and 54 have died, with 229 cases and two fatalities added between Thursday and Monday’s updates.

Neighboring Yuba County has reported 4,068 infections and 21 dead, reporting 170 cases and two new fatality since last Thursday.

Not all patients are necessarily hospitalized in-county, but the only hospital serving the Yuba-Sutter bi-county region — Adventist-Rideout in Marysville — had 71 COVID-19 patients and 18 in ICUs as of Monday’s state update, falling to 68 patients and 17 in ICUs by Tuesday. One ICU bed remains available.

The Bee’s Hannah Wiley contributed to this story. Listen to our daily briefing:

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