Coronavirus updates: California’s COVID-19 death toll officially surpasses 30,000

Almost two full weeks into 2021, California has entered the critical post-holiday window of the coronavirus pandemic which health officials have warned of for months: the point when cases linked to Christmas and New Year’s Eve gatherings are likely to emerge.

It remains slightly too early to draw definitive conclusions about those major holidays’ impact on the COVID-19 situation.

But with the state already dealing with a dire surge that has lasted more than 10 weeks — and which worsened markedly following Thanksgiving — the coming days and weeks will be another crucial inflection point in the health crisis, especially with the vaccine rollout still proceeding at a sluggish pace.

The state on Tuesday officially surpassed 30,000 reported deaths from COVID-19, reporting 548 new virus fatalities in a daily update.

COVID-19 deaths are now coming at a faster pace than ever, with an average of 428 a day reported over the past two weeks, according to the California Department of Public Health. That’s nearly nine times higher than at the start of the surge, in early November.

Spread of the virus is rampant. New lab-confirmed cases are pouring in at a rate of just over 40,000 a day, with 13.5% of diagnostic tests for the virus returning positive in the past two weeks— up from about 4,300 a day and a positivity rate of 3.2% on Nov. 1.

Gov. Gavin Newsom pointed to some small glimmers of good news in a Monday news briefing: The rates of growth for patients hospitalized and in ICUs with the virus have slowed in recent days.

After the hospitalized total grew by several hundred and the ICU total by dozens almost every day in November and December, the former figure has declined by about 250 over the past five days while the latter has effectively plateaued for about three days, state data show.

Still, both totals are extraordinarily high: 21,668 hospitalized and 4,868 in intensive care continue to place tremendous stress on health systems across the state. And it is very possible that both will start to trend upward again within the next few days, correlating with the recent rise in test positivity rate.

Masses of critically ill patients have outstripped intensive care unit space in the regions of Southern California and San Joaquin Valley, which have a combined population of about 27 million, for nearly four weeks. The same is threatening to happen in the Bay Area, where CDPH on Monday reported aggregate ICU availability of 0.7%, though that figure rebounded to 4.7% by Tuesday.

While the threat is less immediate in the Greater Sacramento region, which has over 9% ICU space available, hospital leaders are hoping to avoid drastic measures like rationing care, ambulance rides or oxygen supply, as has been happening for weeks in some parts of Southern California.

Health officials remain concerned by what the next few weeks could bring — the window after the holidays but before the bulk of doctors and nurses are protected by the vaccine. Even then, some health workers are declining to take the shots, along with Latino and Black populations.

California’s COVID-19 death toll is officially 30,513 with Tuesday’s update. Close to 2.75 million Californians have tested positive.

Vaccination centers at Cal Expo, Dodger Stadium and more

Newsom announced in Monday’s news briefing that several large stadium and fairground venues across California will be transformed into vaccination centers in an effort to speed up inoculations.

One at Cal Expo in Sacramento is already being used, in limited capacity, county Health Officer Dr. Olivia Kasirye said.

Essentially all of California remains in Phase 1A of vaccination, with the earliest limited supplies going to front-line health care workers who deal directly with COVID-19 patients as well as to skilled nursing facilities.

Phase 1B will see shots administered to people ages 75 and older, along with some other groups of essential workers such as teachers, according to the state’s current vaccine guidelines.

Kasirye said the county will not likely begin using Cal Expo for 1B shots until the end of January or early February.

Dr. Aimee Sisson, health officer for neighboring Yolo County, said in a video update posted Monday there may “be some slight overlap as we transition between tiers and phases, especially if doses are nearing expiration.”

Meanwhile in Southern California, Los Angeles officials hope to vaccinate up to 12,000 people a day at Dodger Stadium, and San Diego officials want to give 5,000 shots a day at Petco Park, according to the Los Angeles Times and San Diego Union-Tribune, respectively.

It’ll be a trade-off, particularly in the epicenter of Los Angeles. Dodger Stadium had been the largest coronavirus testing center in the U.S., with viral online photos showing sprawling lines of cars backed up in the baseball stadium’s gigantic parking lots.

Health officials for most of the 10-month pandemic have said diagnostic testing is among the most important tools in limiting spread of the virus.

But as the vaccine distribution chain scales up, mass inoculation is overtaking case surveillance as top priority.

It’s been slow going in California, which despite its status as the most populous U.S. state has ranked near the bottom in terms of the portion of vaccine doses it has actually administered. CDPH in a Monday afternoon update to its vaccination tracker said the state has distributed more than 2.9 million doses to hospital systems and county health offices, but that only about 783,000 of them (27%) have gone into arms.

University of California to reopen campuses this fall

The University of California system plans to return to a mostly in-person model in the fall of 2021.

“Current forecasts give us hope that in the fall our students can enjoy a more normal on-campus experience,” UC President Michael Drake said.

Specific plans for how fall classes will resume will be made by each individual campus, and all will coordinate with their local public health agencies.

The California State University system announced in December it plans to bring students and faculty back for in-person instruction in fall 2021.

Are variants of COVID-19 fueling surge?

Some critics of the Newsom administration’s stay-at-home orders closing businesses, churches, large events and other activities on-and-off since last March have argued that the current surge is proof that these tight restrictions are not working. Notable opponents include numerous elected state and county leaders, many of them representing rural parts of the state.

However, some top U.S. health leaders have expressed concern that unidentified, more contagious variants of the coronavirus may be fueling the current surge, perhaps to a greater extent than any explicitly human-linked factor.

“We’re fairly confident that there are variants in the U.S. that have a transmission advantage, and we think that’s contributing to the slope of the surge that we’re seeing right now,” Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told McClatchy News last Friday. “I expect that over the weeks and months ahead a number of variants will be identified.”

One of those is a variant known as B.1.1.7, which was first identified in the United Kingdom and has since been confirmed in several U.S. states including California.

But a report from the White House coronavirus task force, also sent Friday, said the nation’s recent acceleration in new infections “suggests there may be a USA variant that has evolved here.”

The good news is that Redfield and other leading health experts have expressed confidence that the two vaccines approved for emergency use and currently being administered — those by Pfizer and Moderna — are still effective against the new variants.

Sacramento-area numbers: Over 115,000 cases in capital region

The six counties that make up the bulk of the 13-county Greater Sacramento region — Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties — have reported more than 118,000 combined positive cases and recorded at least 1,450 virus deaths as of Tuesday morning.

Sacramento County has confirmed 75,236 cases since the onset of the pandemic, and at least 1,031 of those residents have died of COVID-19.

The county reached the 1,000-death milestone in Monday’s update, reporting 38 new deaths for the three-day reporting period including the weekend, then on Tuesday reported 16 deaths and 1,135 new cases — one of the highest daily infection totals to date.

By date of death occurrence, December become by far Sacramento County’s deadliest month of the pandemic. County health officials now report 330 deaths for the month — an average of 11 a day. The total is still growing as death confirmations are made official, mostly from the second half of the month, but it has already exceeded the previous worst month, August, by 149 deaths.

Additionally, at least 23 have died in the first week of January, the county said.

Virus hospitalizations in Sacramento County have fluctuated some but have held relatively stable, while ICU cases continue to climb. The overall patient total was at 492 as of Tuesday, up seven from Monday, with a record-high 120 in ICUs, state data show. The available ICU bed total increased by one, from 82 to 83.

Placer County health officials have confirmed a total of 16,135 infections and 160 deaths, on Tuesday reporting 157 new cases and removing one death due as a data correction. The removal followed two deaths reported Monday and a record-high 17 last Friday.

State data show Placer’s hospitalized total declining from a peak of 216 near the end of 2020. Placer’s own local dashboard on Tuesday showed 155 in hospitals, down 12 from the previous day, with ICU cases declining from 33 to 26. However, the county reports that only four ICU beds remain available, which amounts to 1.9% availability, according to the local health office.

Yolo County has reported a total of 9,305 cases and 127 deaths, adding only 13 cases and no deaths in a Monday update. Yolo most recently reported a virus fatality last Friday.

State data on Tuesday showed Yolo with 26 virus patients in hospital beds, down from 32 the previous day and with the ICU total falling from 14 to nine. The state reports 19 ICU beds available in Yolo County, up three from Monday. Yolo’s local dashboard in recent updates has shown lower available bed counts than the state.

El Dorado County has reported 7,041 positive test results and 33 deaths, updated Monday with 399 new cases for the period following the weekend. The county last reported fatalities Thursday, increasing the death toll by two.

Following just four deaths from March through mid-November, at least 29 El Dorado residents died of COVID-19 between Nov. 25 and New Year’s Day, county officials report.

State health officials reported 46 virus patients in El Dorado as of Tuesday, tied with Monday for the all-time record. The total in ICU increased from eight to nine, with seven additional ICU beds remaining available.

In Sutter County, at least 7,018 people have contracted the virus and 73 have died. Sutter on Monday added 229 cases and three deaths since last Friday’s update.

Sutter County by Monday dropped slightly to 43 residents hospitalized with COVID-19, down from a record-high 58 last Wednesday. Eleven were in intensive care, down one since then.

Neighboring Yuba County has reported 4,440 infections and 26 dead, with one new fatality and 155 additional cases reported since last Friday.

Yuba said on Monday it had 28 residents hospitalized with the virus, down seven from a record high of 35 set Friday. Five are in ICUs, down from six three days earlier.

Not all patients are necessarily hospitalized in-county, but the only hospital serving the Yuba-Sutter bi-county region — Adventist-Rideout in Marysville — had 54 hospitalized virus patients as of Tuesday’s state data update, down two from Monday with the ICU total holding steady at 14. Only two ICU beds are available, also the same as Monday.

The Bee’s Cathie Anderson, Tony Bizjak, Kim Bojórquez, S awsan Morrar and Jeong Park; and McClatchyDC reporter Michael Wilner contributed to this story.