Corporate America's strong earnings into 2022 is good news for stocks: strategist

Alexandra Semenova
·Reporter
3 min read
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In this article:

Central bank jitters and intensifying geopolitical tensions have pummeled equity markets in recent weeks and sent the S&P 500 into correction territory Tuesday for the first time in two years. But despite a turbulent start to 2022, strong earnings momentum remains a tailwind for stocks.

The S&P 500 Index is on pace to beat the consensus estimate for earnings per share at $208 as companies finish logging fourth-quarter results. The figure is 22% higher than the EPS of $170 analysts had projected heading into last year, according to data from LPL Financial.

Numbers this earnings season have been great, even without considering that the bar has been raised consistently throughout the pandemic, according to LPL equity strategist Jeff Buchbinder. The firm’s research reflects S&P 500 earnings per share tracking to a 31% year-over-year increase, about 10 percentage points above the consensus estimate when earnings season began.

“Earnings growth approaching 30%, though slower than the third quarter’s near-40% clip, would be impressive given the challenging operating environment,” Buchbinder said in a research note.

LPL Financial's research indicates S&P 500 earnings per share are tracking to a 31% year-over-year increase, about 10 percentage points above the consensus estimate when earnings season began.
LPL Financial's research indicates S&P 500 earnings per share are tracking to a 31% year-over-year increase, about 10 percentage points above the consensus estimate when earnings season began. (Jeff Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist, LPL Financial)

Even with about 75 companies tracked by the benchmark still set to report, revenue strength and resilient profit margins have helped companies mostly beat forecasts, LPL indicated. A combination of strong economic growth, restocking of inventory and higher prices due to inflation helped companies notch 2021 fourth quarter revenue of 15.5%, 3 percentage points above estimates.

Buchbinder also notes the 15.5% revenue growth is higher than any quarter during the previous economic expansion between 2009-2020, but was topped by recovery growth in the second and third quarters of 2021, following the easing of COVID-19 lockdowns.

In addition to strong revenue, Buchbinder said profit margins are only expected to see a slight downtick quarter-over-quarter when results are all in, but the decline is likely to be less significant than anticipated amid rising the costs of labor, materials and energy.

“That slight potential dip from the third quarter to the fourth doesn’t take away from the fact that margins last year were tremendous,” he wrote. “Companies are enjoying pricing power, which is helping them pass along higher costs, notably wages, and largely preserve those high margins that are well above pre-pandemic levels.”

The likelihood of less-severe-than expected margin compression makes LPL’s 6%-7% earnings growth forecast for 2022 attainable. Although inflationary pressures and supply chain challenges will likely persist through the first half of the year, the consensus estimate for 2022 S&P 500 EPS rose 0.5% during earnings season, more than the average 2%-3% reduction seen historically, according to LPL.

“While it may take more time for the market to shift its focus toward solid company fundamentals and get more comfortable with the inflation outlook, we expect stocks to recover early-year losses and rally back to new highs through year-end as that transition takes place,” Buchbinder said.

—

Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc

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