Corpus Christi dodged Stage 2 drought this week. Here's when models show it may return.
Recent rains in the recharge zone helped Corpus Christi dodge Stage 2 drought this week – but city officials’ modeling shows it will likely return soon.
Short- and long-term rain forecasts indicate Corpus Christi will re-enter Stage 2 drought conditions by the second or third full week in February, wrote City Manager Peter Zanoni in a message to the Caller-Times.
As of Friday, the combined capacity of Lake Corpus Christi and the Choke Canyon Reservoir – two of the city’s main sources of water supply – was at about 31%, according to city data.
Stage 2 drought is declared when the combined capacity has dropped to a combined capacity below 30%.
The city briefly dipped into Stage 2 drought Jan. 18 pre-rain, with the combined levels sinking to 29.9%, data shows.
However, Stage 2 drought restrictions – which include limiting landscape irrigation with an irrigation system or sprinklers to only one day, every other week – were postponed.
The decision was based on predicted precipitation in the near forecast, Zanoni said shortly before the announcement earlier this month.
The city has been in Stage 1 drought—categorized by the reservoirs’ combined capacity dipping below 40% – since June 2022.
Stage 1 drought restrictions include allowing landscape irrigation with an irrigation system or sprinklers to only one day per week.
Combined capacity stood at about 31% one month ago and about 42.7% about a year ago, the statistics show.
City officials have said modeling is performed daily to track projections of the combined capacity of Lake Corpus Christi and Choke Canyon Reservoir.
Models do not give 100% certainty on future lake levels – those are subject to change from a number of factors, including meteorological weather forecast precision – but serve as a general guide on the likelihood of drought conditions ahead.
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This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times: Corpus Christi may enter Stage 2 drought February
