Couch: Michigan State would have made a 12-team playoff 6 times since 1999. Here's what the matchups would have looked like.
After eight seasons dealing with the needless angst, exclusivity and harm to our senses produced by a four-team College Football Playoff, reason has prevailed at last. A 12-team playoff is on its way. As soon as 2024. No later than 2026.
We’re done with pundits pushing the playoff talk in Week 1 of the regular season. Done with four spots at the table for five major conferences and five other leagues. Done with star players sitting out what are supposed to be marquee postseason games. They’ll play if they’re playing for a championship. We’re done with a few behemoth programs getting all the recruiting advantages of playoff appearances, as success breeds success. Done with SEC teams never playing a cold-weather game.
It’s about to get awesome. It could have been for a while now — for programs like Michigan State and dozens of others throughout the country.
In the 24 seasons since the beginning of the Bowl Championship Series era in 1998 and subsequent four-team playoff era that followed in 2014, 66 different college football programs would have made at least one playoff appearance under the new agreed-upon 12-team format (using the BCS and then CFB rankings). More than 40 of them would have made it at least twice, 34 of them three times or more, 30 at least four times. MSU would have made the field six times in that span — in 1999, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2021.
While most years, only a handful of teams will have a legitimate shot at a championship, we don’t know how the power will shift over time as recruits see more teams on the biggest stage. And for each program, success will look different — like with the NCAA basketball tournament, where, for some, just getting in is everything. For others, winning one game or getting to the Sweet 16 is magical, while the elite schools measure themselves on Final Fours and national titles. The same will happen in football.
Even if the 12-team playoff had existed for the past 24 years, MSU’s best chance to win a national championship remains 2013, the Rose Bowl season, given the defensive ferocity of that team and the level of the rest of the contenders. MSU would have had a bye that year as the No. 3 seed — yes, the 3 seed, since the four byes / top four seeds in the new format will be for the top four-ranked conference champions.
MSU in 1999, as the 9 seed, might have had a puncher’s chance at a title, too, given what that team was at its best and the amount high-end talent on the roster. Same for the 2014 squad, an 8 seed. That would have been the only season that MSU hosted a playoff game, which teams seeded 5 through 8 will soon do in the first round. In time, I think we’ll also see the quarterfinals be played at home sites, once the sport can pry itself away from the grip of its long-standing major bowl partners.
Here’s a look at each of MSU’s six would-have-been playoff appearances, if the new College Football Playoff format had been in place:
1999
(Based on final regular season BCS standings)
Byes
1. Florida State (11-0, ACC champ)
2. Virginia Tech (11-0, Big East champ)
3. Nebraska (11-1, Big 12 champ)
4. Alabama (10-2, SEC champ)
First-round games
12. Marshall (12-0) at 5. Tennessee (9-2)
11. Penn State (9-3) at 6. Kansas State (10-1)
10. Florida (9-3) at 7. Wisconsin (9-2)
9. Michigan State (9-2) at 8. Michigan (9-2)
Quarterfinals
Michigan-MSU winner vs. Florida State
Wisconsin-Florida winner vs. Virginia Tech
Kansas State-Penn State winner vs. Nebraska
Tennessee-Marshall winner vs. Alabama
Semis
U-M/MSU/FSU vs. Tenn/Marshall/Bama
Wis/Fla/Va Tech vs. KSU/PSU/Neb
The skinny: MSU at Michigan in a College Football Playoff game? It might have been so in 1999, had the 12-team playoff been in place back then. It would have been controversial, as was Michigan’s spot in a BCS bowl game, while MSU went to the Citrus Bowl, given that both teams were 10-2 and MSU won the regular season matchup at Spartan Stadium. Either way, that MSU team had a chance at some postseason magic, with a loaded roster – Plaxico Burress, Julian Peterson, T.J. Duckett and so forth. Perhaps Nick Saban wouldn’t have left before the postseason, either. Florida State went wire-to-wire as the No. 1 team that season, but to bring the ever-flawed transitive property into play, the Seminoles only beat Florida 30-23 late in the season. A little more than a month later, MSU beat the Gators 34-27 in the Citrus Bowl.
2010
(Based on final regular season BCS standings)
Byes
1. Auburn (13-0, SEC champ)
2. Oregon (12-0, Pac-10 champ)
3. TCU (12-0, Mountain West champ)
4. Wisconsin (11-1, Big Ten champ)
First-round games
12. Missouri (10-2) at 5. Stanford (11-1)
11. LSU (10-2) at 6. Ohio State (11-1)
10. Boise State (11-1) at 7. Oklahoma (11-1)
9. Michigan State (11-1) at 8. Arkansas (10-2)
Quarterfinals
Arkansas-MSU winner vs. Auburn
Oklahoma-Boise State winner vs. Oregon
Ohio State-LSU winner vs. TCU
Stanford-Missouri winner vs. Wisconsin
Semis
Ark/MSU/Aub vs. Stan/Mizzou/Wis
Okla/Boise/Ore vs. OSU/LSU/TCU
The skinny: MSU’s 2010 team was the beginning of the Spartans’ rise under Mark Dantonio. It was not, however, considered as strong as the 2011 squad (which wouldn’t have made a 12-team playoff) or the MSU teams from 2013 through ’15. In 2010, MSU would have played at an Arkansas team in the first round that it might have held its own against, but, had the Spartans won, Cam Newton and top-seed Auburn, which won the BCS title, would have been waiting. This bracket is an example of how the conference championships will matter. Wisconsin was No. 5 in the rankings, behind Stanford. But because Stanford didn’t win the Pac 12 and the Badgers were considered the Big Ten champions (even if a shared title), Wisconsin would have the No. 4 seed and the final bye. Also worth noting: Two mid-major teams would be in this field, TCU (which played in the Mountain West back then) and Boise State. This 12-team playoff will open up opportunities for everyone.
2013
(Based on final regular season BCS standings)
Byes
1. Florida State (13-0, ACC champ)
2. Auburn (12-1, SEC champ)
3. Michigan State (12-1, Big Ten champ)
4. Stanford (11-2, Pac-12 champ)
First-round games
12. Clemson (10-2) at 5. Alabama (11-1)
11. Oklahoma (10-2) at 6. Baylor (11-1)
10. Oregon (10-2) at 7. Ohio State (12-1)
9. South Carolina (10-2) at Missouri (11-2)
Quarterfinals
Mizzou-South Carolina winner vs. Florida State
Ohio State-Oregon winner vs. Auburn
Baylor-Oklahoma winner vs. MSU
Alabama-Clemson winner vs. Stanford
Semis
Mizzou/SC/FSU vs. Bama/Clem/Stan
OSU/Ore/Aub vs. Baylor/Okla/MSU
The skinny: I remember debates about whether MSU would have been the No. 4 or 5 team in the actual playoff rankings, had the 2013 season not been a year ahead of the four-team field. In fact, in this new 12-team format, whether MSU was ahead of Stanford or not is irrelevant. MSU would be safely in the top four by virtue of being one of the top four conference champions, with Alabama sliding to No. 5. Per the BCS rankings back then, coupled with the conference champion rule that's on the way, MSU would have been the No. 3 seed in a 12-team field, awaiting the winner of Baylor and Oklahoma. That MSU team could have played with anyone in the country and proved it late in the season against Ohio State and Stanford.
2014
(Based on final College Football Playoff rankings)
Byes
1. Alabama (12-1, SEC champ)
2. Oregon (12-1, Pac-12 champ)
3. Florida State (13-0, ACC champ)
4. Ohio State (12-1, Big Ten champ)
First-round games
12. Georgia Tech (10-3) at 5. Baylor (11-1)
11. Kansas State (9-3) at 6. TCU (11-1)
10. Arizona (10-3) at 7. Mississippi State (10-2)
9. Ole Miss (9-3) at 8. MSU (10-2)
Quarterfinals
MSU-Ole Miss winner vs. Alabama
Miss State-Arizona winner vs. Oregon
TCU-K-State winner vs. Florida State
Baylor-Georgia Tech winner vs. Ohio State
Semis
MSU/Miss/Bama vs. Baylor/Ga.Tech/OSU
Arizona/Miss St/Ore vs. TCU/K-St/FSU
The skinny: If we redo the rankings, MSU is probably the No. 7 seed, not 8, given the College Football Playoff selection committee’s bizarre three-spot leap of Mississippi State that season, which probably doesn’t happen if there are no bowl considerations. Either way, in the first year of the four-team playoff, had there been a 12-team playoff, MSU would have hosted a game at Spartan Stadium, against Ole Miss or Arizona — with one of those warm-weather schools coming to East Lansing in mid-December. If MSU remained the 8 seed, it would have faced Alabama in the quarterfinals. Keep in mind, 2014 Alabama wasn’t quite 2015 Alabama. And 2014 MSU was more equipped to hang in with the Tide. History might take MSU more seriously as a national threat if the 12-team playoff had been in place then.
2015
(Based on final College Football Playoff rankings)
Byes
1. Clemson (13-0, ACC champ)
2. Alabama (12-1, SEC champ)
3. Michigan State (12-1, Big Ten champ)
4. Oklahoma (11-1, Big 12 champ)
First-round games
12. Ole Miss (9-3) at 5. Iowa (12-1)
11. TCU (10-2) at 6. Stanford (11-2)
10. North Carolina (11-2) at 7. Ohio State (11-1)
9. Florida State (10-2) at 8. Notre Dame (10-2)
Quarterfinals
Notre Dame-Florida State winner vs. Clemson
Ohio State-North Carolina winner vs. Alabama
Stanford-TCU winner vs. MSU
Iowa-Ole Miss winner vs. Oklahoma
Semis
ND/FSU/Clemson vs. Iowa/Miss/Okla
OSU/NC/Bama vs. Stanford/TCU/MSU
The skinny: The good news for 2015 MSU in a 12-team format is that the Spartans wouldn’t have faced Alabama right off the bat. They would have gotten a bye and then faced Stanford or TCU. By the way, TCU would have made a 12-team playoff eight times in 24 years, including six times from 2008 to 2015. Being on that stage so often might have changed the Horned Frogs’ program even more than all that winning did (and it got them into the Big 12.).
2021
(Based on final College Football Playoff rankings)
Byes
1. Alabama (12-1, SEC champ)
2. Michigan (12-1, Big Ten champ)
3. Cincinnati (13-0, American champ)
4. Baylor (10-2, Big 12 champ)
First-round games
12. Pittsburgh (11-2) at 5. Georgia
11. Utah (10-3) at 6. Notre Dame (11-1)
10. Michigan State (10-2) at 7. Ohio State (10-2)
9. Oklahoma State (11-2) at Ole Miss (10-2)
Quarterfinals
Ole Miss-Oklahoma State winner vs. Alabama
Ohio State-MSU winner vs. Michigan
Notre Dame-Utah winner vs. Cincinnati
Georgia-Pitt winner vs. Baylor
Semis
Miss/OK St./Bama vs. Georgia/Pitt/Baylor
OSU/MSU/U-M vs. ND/Utah/Cincy
The skinny: Close your eyes, Spartans. Had the 12-team playoff been in place last season, even though 10th-seeded MSU would have made it, the Spartans would have opened at No. 7 Ohio State. Nothing like that rematch in Columbus to fuel your soul and leave you shattered heading into the postseason. Last season is probably one year when MSU is glad the expanded playoff didn’t exist, given that potential matchup. The reason the Spartans would have to play the Buckeyes is, again, that rule that the top four spots and byes go to the top four conference champions. So Baylor, the Big 12 champion, would jump from 7 to 4, with Georgia sliding to No. 5 — which means the postseason wouldn’t have gone well for Pitt, either. The Panthers might have had QB Kenny Pickett (who skipped the game vs. MSU), but they would have had to face eventual-national champion Georgia on the road in the first round. Another would-be interesting matchup: Ohio State vs. Michigan in the quarterfinals.
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State football would have made a 12-team CFB Playoff 6 times in the BCS and playoff era
