Couch: How can MSU compete with Ohio State? The past is full of answers, not all of them promising
EAST LANSING – The question for Michigan State’s football team this week isn’t just whether it’s capable of upsetting Ohio State. It’s also a matter of whether the Spartans can even keep this game somewhat competitive. It’s a lower threshold, but one that — let’s be honest — would go a long way toward changing the perception of this struggling team.
MSU is a 27-point underdog in Saturday’s game at Spartan Stadium, the program’s second-longest odds dating back to at least 1995. The only time the Spartans were a bigger long shot: Nov. 7, 1998 at Ohio State, when they were 27.5-point ’dogs. You might remember that game — a 28-24 MSU win against the No. 1-ranked Buckeyes in Columbus.
So it can be done.
MSU has been at least a two-touchdown underdog 21 times in the last 28 seasons, per Odds Sharks’ database. In eight of those games, the Spartans covered the point spread and, by the aforementioned standard being sought this week, were also somewhat competitive. Three times — against the Buckeyes in 1998 and 2015 and Michigan in 2020 — the Spartans won outright.
As Mel Tucker would say, “success leaves clues,” so let’s examine those eight successes alongside the dynamics at play this week. Because there are formulas for upsets and being competitive in these sort of matchups.
“First of all, you have to believe. That's one,” Tucker said this week. “And then you have to strip the name off the (opponent’s) jersey and go to work. ... Just take it from the meeting room to the practice field. Do it so many times right in practice where you can’t get it wrong in the game. Then you take it to the game and you play one play at a time, never looking at the scoreboard. Just keep playing. There's not anything real complicated involved. But it starts with the belief and then it goes from there.”
I don’t know whether this MSU team, deep down, believes it can win this game. The veterans in this program have been on the other end of 56-7 and 52-12 Buckeye thrashings the past two seasons. Couple that with how the last three weeks have gone for the Spartans and how Ohio State is playing and you’d have to be one delusional mule to be a true believer in MSU’s chances.
If you’re looking to 1998’s win for hope, there are some lessons to take away and also a disheartening reality. That MSU team was full of pros — difference-makers against any opponent or players on their way there — like Plaxico Burress and Sedrick Irvin on offense and Julian Peterson, Dimitrius Underwood, Robaire Smith and Renaldo Hill on defense.
“We knew our team was just as talented,” Hill said several years ago. “I don’t think at any point we didn’t think we were going to win that game. We knew we were going to win that ballgame.”
MSU had three eventual first-round NFL draft picks on that roster (Burress, Peterson and Underwood) and Smith and Hill also had long NFL careers. When Tucker talks about the sort of difference-makers it takes to compete for championships, MSU had them in 1998. Tucker saw it first-hand. He was a graduate assistant at MSU that season. Those Spartans underachieved, finishing 6-6. A year later, they were 10-2.
This year’s MSU team might or might not have some pros, but, other than perhaps Jayden Reed, they’re a ways away, young guys that haven’t yet made their mark, like Hill was as a freshman and 1998. He held up at cornerback that day against two gifted Ohio State receivers. Maybe there’s another young MSU defensive back who makes his mark this Saturday.
MORE: Michigan State football star Jayden Reed slowed by bruises, cuts, dating back to preseason
That ’98 team had also already shown some teeth, beating Notre Dame 45-23 at home, even if it had also lost at home to Colorado State and been beaten badly at Oregon. There’s no evidence that this year’s MSU team has the goods to roll over a decent team, even in one of those games where everything goes right.
One takeaway from that 1998 game that MSU should live by this Saturday — and MSU fans should tolerate without boos — the Spartans have to try to run the ball no matter what. They have to force balance. A productive running game this Saturday isn’t just about yards. It’s about Ohio State respecting the idea MSU might run. In that game 24 years ago, Irvin ran 26 times for 52 yards.
“You’ve got to be balanced,” Irvin said a few years ago, describing MSU’s approach that night. “You have to establish some sort of running game, where you feel you can get those 3 or 4 yards. And then it’s also attitude, too. Because now you’re sending a message, ‘You know what? My team is tougher than your team.’ ”
MSU, in total, ran 34 times for 48 yards that night. The frequency allowed quarterback Bill Burke, Burress and Gari Scott to get it done through the air. Try not to be frustrated by a second straight 2-yard run this Saturday. That’s got to be part of the game plan. Like in 1998, the weakness of MSU’s offense is its offensive line. And, just like then, MSU’s passing game doesn’t have enough juice to challenge the Buckeyes if Ohio State can pin its ears back and just play the pass.
MSU’s 2015 win at Ohio State, as 14.5-point underdogs, isn’t really a helpful comparison to this week. The Spartans were on their way to a third Big Ten championship in six years. MSU was in a different place. The Spartans’ offensive line bullied the Buckeyes and controlled the game. There’s zero evidence that’s possible this Saturday.
The only possible relevant dynamic is that Ohio State took MSU lightly that day, because MSU quarterback Connor Cook didn’t play and his absence wasn’t known until late. The Buckeyes had prepared for a different type of game. And, now, given that the Buckeyes have drilled the Spartans the past two seasons, one could see how they wouldn’t respect MSU. If this were Ohio State’s sixth straight home game, another ho-hum Saturday, instead of its first road game of the year, perhaps that works in the Spartans’ favor. I think being on the road will help the Buckeyes dial in. They also appear to be treating this season as a prove-it and toughness tour after the way last season ended.
MSU’s win at Michigan two years ago, as 21.5-point underdogs by kickoff — and 25-point underdogs earlier in the week — doesn’t have any parallels here. That was just a matter of misjudging the Wolverines early in the pandemic season after they obliterated Minnesota in their opener. Plus, MSU had turned the ball over seven times in losing at home to Rutgers a week earlier. Neither MSU nor Michigan was any good.
MSU’s 3-9 season in 2016 offers two comparisons — the Spartans’ 17-16 loss to unbeaten Ohio State on Nov. 19, when they were 20-point underdogs, and MSU’s 32-23 loss to 7-0 Michigan on Oct. 29, as 24.5 point ’dogs.
That game against the Wolverines wasn’t competitive in the first half, with Michigan leading 30-10 at the break. But the Spartans made it a little uncomfortable in the fourth quarter. That was an MSU roster that had never lost to the Wolverines. There was no intimidation and understandable belief on MSU’s side, even as that season went south. Michigan didn’t leave that game with the energy that comes from demolishing a rival and MSU didn’t leave embarrassed. If MSU on Saturday, again against a heavy favorite, is able to claw back late to a respectable finish and preserve its dignity, that’ll be a welcomed result.
That November 2016 loss to the Buckeyes is the most recent relevant comparison of historical use. The problem is, as Ohio State coach Urban Meyer said of the Spartans that day, “They were controlling the line of scrimmage,” specifically after an eight-run, no-pass fourth-quarter touchdown drive. That MSU roster still had the remnants of the 36-5 run over three years. There was some seasoned talent up front and more oomph in the trenches than this offensive group has shown. It was also the peak of LJ Scott’s MSU career, 160 yards rushing on 19 carries that day, 236 yards in total.
But that game left MSU with the feeling that it might be OK, that things weren’t as bad as the Spartans’ 3-8 record.
MSU could use that feeling again.
MORE: Michigan State vs. Ohio State: 5 determining factors and a prediction
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State football: MSU's past reveals how it can beat Ohio State
