Could anti-immigration law backfire on DeSantis and turn Florida blue again? | Opinion

Given the strong Republican performance in Florida in recent years, it’s easy to think that this once-ultimate swing state is now solidly red. Here’s why the conventional wisdom may be wrong.

Thirty years ago, California was a reliably red state governed by Pete Wilson, one of the country’s most prominent conservatives of the time. Many saw Wilson as a future president, and as Wilson looked to burnish his conservative credentials for a national run, he threw his weight behind the now-infamous Proposition 187, one of the most egregiously anti-Latino and anti-immigration laws in U.S. history.

The policy aim of Proposition 187 barred undocumented immigrants from receiving government services, but its practical impact was that Latino Americans all across California became profiled, harassed and abused. Latinos felt less safe in their own communities and deeply disrespected by the Republican Party.

So they voted. The mobilization of Latino voters to the polls in the aftermath of Proposition 187 was largely responsible for turning California — the nation’s biggest electoral prize — from red to reliably blue.

With that history in mind, Gov. Ron DeSantis’ highly calculated decision to champion and sign the similarly anti-immigrant SB 1718 into law may be seen years from now as one of the great political blunders of our time.

Similar to Proposition 187, SB 1718 requires hospitals to collect data on citizenship, which could discourage immigrants from accessing vital community resources like hospital emergency rooms. It gives law enforcement (and, let’s face it, racist vigilantes) permission to harass anyone they deem to be an immigrant.

At a time of extraordinary political division and an increase in racist vitriol, the law is designed to further inflame tension and distrust.

The heartbreaking personal toll of this Florida law won’t make front-page headlines. We don’t typically read about the person who dies in the streets because they were too afraid to go to a hospital. But even though DeSantis may not care about Latino lives, one would think he and his allies would have a keener sense of political history — especially as he prepares for an expected presidential bid, which would put him in front of an electorate that’s more diverse than ever.

Yes, Florida has trended Republican in recent years. But DeSantis may be awakening a sleeping giant, just as Wilson did 30 years ago.

In 1994, Latinos represented 30% of California’s population but only 12% of the state’s registered voters. Within a decade of Proposition 187 passing, California gained over one million new registered Latino voters. Today, Latinos represent nearly 35% of the state’s adult population and 22% of the state’s likely voters. This powerful one-two punch of more Latinos in the population and greater turnout among them led to a generational blue wall that gives Democrats 20% of the total electoral votes needed for the presidency every four years.

Yes, after winning by less than half a percentage point in 2018, DeSantis won his reelection last year by a wide margin. In 1994, Pete Wilson was reelected by California voters by a similar landslide. But just four years later, a Democrat replaced him in a 20-point landslide with help from Latino support.

The lesson is simple and timeless: All politics is local. If you are a Latino voter who gets stopped in your own neighborhood and asked for papers, you become a motivated voter. And Republican extremism is about to mobilize a new generation of Latino voters across the state.

Anyone who thinks Florida is off the table as a presidential swing state is ignoring history — whether we’re talking about California’s transformation 30 years ago, DeSantis’ own squeaker in 2018 or even the epic upset in the Jacksonville mayor’s race just days ago. And while the impact of DeSantis’ political malpractice may not be felt overnight, we may well look back at SB 1718 as the law that awoke a sleeping giant.

Maria Teresa Kumar is the founding CEO of Voto Latino.