Could Idalia make a run at Bermuda in the wake of Franklin?
Hurricane Franklin has been churning in the Atlantic for more than a week in the wake of its landfall over the Dominican Republic during the fourth week of August. As the storm brushes past Bermuda on its speedy exit out to sea, AccuWeather hurricane experts warn that the island nation may not be done with tropical trouble in the near future.
As of Friday morning, Franklin was a shell of its former formidable self with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, or Category 1 hurricane strength, as it was centered 470 miles northeast of Bermuda.
Earlier this week, Franklin became the first major hurricane in the Atlantic basin this season, later intensifying into a powerhouse Category 4 storm. A major hurricane is one that packs maximum sustained winds of Category 3 or higher (at least 111 mph or 178 km/h) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSWHS).
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Franklin's impacts on Bermuda were similar to a tropical storm, as opposed to a powerful hurricane, given Franklin's distance from the island nation, AccuWeather forecasters say. Peak wind gusts during the height of Franklin's impacts approached 50 mph late Wednesday evening. As Franklin moved away early Thursday morning, the tropical storm warning that had been in effect for Bermuda was discontinued.
After Franklin sweeps to the north of Bermuda, AccuWeather meteorologists say that the storm will be pulled into the North Atlantic Ocean by a non-tropical system into the weekend.
Some of Franklin's moisture can be pulled northward by this separate system, resulting in an enhancement of downpours across part of Atlantic Canada into Thursday night.
AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring the longer-range path of Idalia, following the storm's destructive path across the southeastern United States.
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"The latest indications are that after a stall or southward dip for a day or two, the storm may resume a northeastward movement next week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
During the time that Idalia potentially meanders offshore, what is left of the storm can enhance downpours across Bermuda from Friday through the weekend.
"Although AccuWeather's forecast as of midday Wednesday has Idalia bringing 1-2 inches of rain across Bermuda from Friday night to Monday, these rainfall amounts could greatly increase should the storm stall in the vicinity of the island nation," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis said.
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Idalia is expected to maintain at least tropical-storm-force winds (maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph) during its time over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the first days of September.
The strength of wind gusts in Bermuda will depend greatly on how close that Idalia tracks to the island nation. AccuWeather meteorologists expect at least 40-60 mph gusts to occur, which can lead to localized tree damage and unsecured outdoor items being tossed around.
There is a chance that Idalia, should it survive, could be pulled northwestward toward Cape Cod, Massachusetts, later next week. At any rate, Idalia's long-term track, perhaps as a tropical rainstorm, may be an erratic one into the first week or two of September.
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As the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches on Sept. 10, AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring several other areas of tropical development in the basin.
On Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm 11 formed hundreds of miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda. During Wednesday night, that depression became Tropical Storm José. There is no threat to land from José as it will drift northward over the central Atlantic.
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Elsewhere, there remains a high chance for development across the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. This feature is expected to track to the north-northwest and into the central Atlantic, Douty said. Following José, the next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2023 season is Katia.
There is also a low chance of development with a tropical rainstorm in the central Atlantic, near what is now Tropical Storm José. Conditions for development are expected to deteriorate beyond Thursday, so any system that forms in this area is expected to be short-lived without impacts to land.
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