How could impeaching Biden sway the 2024 election?
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This article was first published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday mornings here.
Good morning and welcome to On the Trail 2024, the Deseret News’ campaign newsletter. I’m Samuel Benson, Deseret’s national political correspondent.
Do you have a question for the Friday mailbag? Drop me a line at onthetrail@deseretnews.com.
The latest from our 2024 election coverage:
DeSantis had no influence on new AP African American studies course, College Board says
Rudy Giuliani to pay $148 million in defamation case while still facing criminal charges in 2024
The Big Idea
Impeachment, Biden, and the 2024 election
House Republicans authorized an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden last week, related to the foreign business dealings of his son, Hunter Biden. My colleagues Gitanjali Poonia and Brigham Tomco wrote a great explainer here, laying out the most important things to know.
Two things to remember: Republicans have yet to present any concrete evidence of the president’s culpability, and this is only an inquiry — and impeachment remains unlikely.
But the big question mark is what effect this has on the 2024 election. Voters remain split, largely by party lines, over their support for impeachment. Some findings from polling:
Support over a probe is a toss-up. According to one poll, 49% of Americans approve of an impeachment probe, while 48% disapprove (NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist).
Among Republicans, that support is dropping. In September, 76% of GOP voters supported an impeachment probe; in December, that fell to 70%. Among independent voters, there was a drop, too — 43% to 37%.
Actually impeaching Biden is far less popular. While voters seem open to an impeachment inquiry, they remain unconvinced that Biden should be impeached. A CBS average of three polls from October to December shows 48% of voters oppose impeaching Biden, while 42% support it.
If the House moves forward with an inquiry, impeaches Biden and delivers articles of impeachment to the Senate, it’s highly unlikely that the Senate — based on the current information available — would move forward. Several Senate Republicans have said they see no evidence to justify impeaching Biden. One of them, Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota, warned House Republicans that pushing forward an impeachment could “backfire politically” and hurt them in 2024.
That’s the message the White House is sending, too. “This baseless impeachment exercise would be a disaster for congressional Republicans, and don’t take our word for it: just listen to the chorus of their fellow Republicans who admit there is no evidence for their false allegations and that pursuing such a partisan stunt will ‘backfire,’” White House spokesperson Ian Sams told The Hill last week.
What I’m reading
It’s been a month since Sen. Tim Scott ended his campaign for president. He’s said that he won’t be endorsing another candidate “anytime soon.” But that hasn’t stopped several from trying, according to a new report. Both Nikki Haley and Donald Trump are lobbying Scott for his backing, with Haley calling her fellow South Carolinian as recently as last week. There may be something in it for Scott, too: if he endorses Trump, he’d likely become the odds-on favorite for Trump’s VP pick. Nikki Haley and Donald Trump asked Tim Scott to endorse them (Shelby Talcott, Semafor)
The wheels seem to be falling off Ron DeSantis’ political operation, after a chief strategist departed his super PAC over the weekend. He’s the latest casualty in an apparent meltdown at the PAC, Never Back Down. “While Mr. DeSantis has sought to project strength and competence on the campaign trail, behind-the-scenes infighting at Never Back Down has frequently overshadowed his efforts,” the Times reports. With His Super PAC in Disarray, DeSantis Aims to Stay on Offense (Kellen Browning and Nicholas Nehamas, The New York Times)
Some Republicans in Congress are doing their best to block aid to Ukraine. Many of them offered full-throated support for Ukraine when Russia first invaded in February 2022. What changed? Trump is pushing to back off Ukraine, and they fear his retribution, David Frum writes. They Do It for Trump (David Frum, The Atlantic)
One last thing — a reminder to follow our new On the Trail 2024 Instagram account!
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See you on the trail.
Editor’s Note: The Deseret News is committed to covering issues of substance in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters will bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision. Find our complete coverage of the election here.
